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The latest Bet Better model pick for Obi Toppin is Over 8.5 on Points.
On Points, our numbers say this bet wins about 73 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 73%, implied 56%, edge +16.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Aug 31, 8:23PM UTC
NBA

Obi Toppin

Indiana Pacers

+16.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Points Over 8.5 -130 (1.77) · $100→$177
+16.5% Edge
Indiana Pacers @ Milwaukee Bucks
Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI · Indoor
Sun 15 Mar, 7:30PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
73 in 100
Predicted
12.1 Points
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 73.0% · the book's price implies 56.5% · gap +16.5%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Points73.0%—56.5%1.37+16.5%

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AI Analysis

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Obi Toppin (Indiana Pacers) Over 8.5 Points (-130)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As the Indiana Pacers head into Milwaukee, eyes will be on Obi Toppin, especially with a points line set at 8.5. Toppin has been heating up recently, averaging 11.4 points over his last five games. More telling is his performance away from home, where he's managed to notch 8.6 points per game. Against the Bucks, he's historically fared even better, averaging almost 9.8 points when playing in Milwaukee. With a solid hit rate of 12 out of his last 20 away games exceeding this line, Toppin is in a prime position. The Bucks' defense can be suspect at times, and with Toppin's last four games showing him clear for over 8.5 points three times, it feels like a smart play to back him for the over. With an expected stat value of 12.11, we're confident he'll exceed this threshold once again.

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Pick History & Track Record

Obi Toppin — 2024-25 season averages

Over 89 games in the 2024-25 season, Obi Toppin averaged 10.3 points, 3.9 rebounds and 1.6 assists in 19.2 minutes per game, shooting 52.8% from the field and 36.3% from three-point range.

10.3
PPG
3.9
RPG
1.6
APG
0.6
SPG
0.3
BPG
19.2
MPG
52.8%
FG%
36.3%
3P%

Obi Toppin — recent role

Across his last 5 games, Obi Toppin has played 16.6 minutes per game and started 0% of them.

16.6
MPG (L5)
8.8
PPG (L5)
0%
Started

Obi Toppin — home vs away scoring

At home Obi Toppin averages 9.6 points per game; on the road, 11.0. Worth checking against tonight's points line.

9.6
PPG at home
11.0
PPG on the road

Obi Toppin — scoring by opponent

Obi Toppin scores most against the TOR, averaging 14.1 points per game in that matchup.

14.1
TOR
10.6
WSH
9.8
MIN
9.7
NY
9.4
PHI
9.1
MIA

Obi Toppin — last 10 games

Over his last 10 games, Obi Toppin has averaged 8.5 points, 2.5 rebounds and 1.8 assists.

DateOppMinPtsRebAst
13 May@ CLE12533
11 Mayvs CLE212052
9 Mayvs CLE19525
6 May@ CLE16721
4 May@ CLE15752
29 Aprvs MIL11511
27 Apr@ MIL141311
25 Apr@ MIL161021
22 Aprvs MIL21731
19 Aprvs MIL15611
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
23 Oct 25 Oklahoma City Thunder @ Indiana Pacers Pts + Rebs 14.5 Over -130 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Obi Toppin (Indiana Pacers) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Obi Toppin is Over 8.5 on Points. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +16.5% on this pick. Their next game is Indiana Pacers vs Milwaukee Bucks on Sunday 15 March at Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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