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The latest Bet Better model pick for Obi Toppin is Over 8.5 on Points.
On the Points market the model assigns a model win probability of 73%, versus the book's implied 56%, for a model edge of +16.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 1:05PM UTC
NBA

Obi Toppin

Indiana Pacers

+16.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Points Over 8.5 -130 (1.77)
+16.5% Edge
Indiana Pacers @ Milwaukee Bucks
Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI · Indoor
Sun 15 Mar, 7:30PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
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Model Probability
73.0%
Implied Probability
56.5%
Model Edge
+16.5%
Predicted Value
12.1 Points

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Points73.0%—56.5%1.37+16.5%

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AI Analysis

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Obi Toppin (Indiana Pacers) Over 8.5 Points (-130)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As the Indiana Pacers head into Milwaukee, eyes will be on Obi Toppin, especially with a points line set at 8.5. Toppin has been heating up recently, averaging 11.4 points over his last five games. More telling is his performance away from home, where he's managed to notch 8.6 points per game. Against the Bucks, he's historically fared even better, averaging almost 9.8 points when playing in Milwaukee. With a solid hit rate of 12 out of his last 20 away games exceeding this line, Toppin is in a prime position. The Bucks' defense can be suspect at times, and with Toppin's last four games showing him clear for over 8.5 points three times, it feels like a smart play to back him for the over. With an expected stat value of 12.11, we're confident he'll exceed this threshold once again.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Points2024-25 · formNo line posted
8.5avg · last 10
L58.8Szn10.3Home9.6Away11.0Best42
5+84%
10+54%
15+19%
20+8%
Game log vs O 9.5avg 8.5 · hi 20 · lo 5
6710135775205

Obi Toppin is averaging 8.5 points over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 10.3, best 42). He clears 10+ in 54% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
11.0avg · last 10
L512.2Szn14.2Home13.1Away15.2Best52
4+96%
9+78%
14+49%
19+22%
24+13%
Game log vs O 13.5avg 11 · hi 25 · lo 6
710121461297258

Obi Toppin is averaging 11.0 points + rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 14.2, best 52). He clears 14+ in 49% of 2024-25 games.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
23 Oct 25 Oklahoma City Thunder @ Indiana Pacers Pts + Rebs 14.5 Over -130 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Obi Toppin (Indiana Pacers) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Obi Toppin is Over 8.5 on Points. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +16.5% on this pick. Their next game is Indiana Pacers vs Milwaukee Bucks on Sunday 15 March at Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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