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Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Oklahoma City Thunder

Value call

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Oklahoma City Thunder) has one live pick today: under 40.5 pts rebs asts that pays $225 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LEAN
How often this wins
51 in 100
Predicted
36.0 Pts + Rebs + Asts
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 51.4% · before adjusting for past results 71.3% · the book's price implies 44.4% · gap +7.0%.

Latest Model PickFree
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Dallas Mavericks
American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX · Indoor
Wed 28 Oct, 9:30 PM ET
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
under 40.5 pts rebs asts
Pts + Rebs + Asts Under 40.5 +125 (2.25) · $100→$225
Value call
LEANWins about 51 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$22.50 Odds+125
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is Under 40.5 on Points + Rebounds + Assists.
On Points + Rebounds + Assists, our numbers say this bet wins about 51 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 51%, the price says 44%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Oct 31, 10:03AM UTC
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

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MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pts + Rebs + Asts71.3%51.4%44.4%1.94+26.9%

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AI Analysis

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Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 40.5 Pts + Rebs + Asts (+125)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been playing well lately, but he faces a tough matchup against the Dallas Mavericks. They are pretty solid at limiting points, rebounds, and assists overall, making it hard for any player to rack up big numbers. The Mavericks also allow fewer rebounds than the league average, which could cut into Shai's chances to hit that 40.5 mark. Both teams play at a fast pace, but the Mavericks make it tough to score. With the way Dallas has defended against players like Shai, there's a real chance he might struggle to meet that total. The risk here is that he could have an off night, and there's always the chance he just doesn't get enough opportunities.

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Pick History & Track Record

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander — 2024-25 season averages

Over 88 games in the 2024-25 season, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 31.5 points, 5.1 rebounds and 6.2 assists in 33.8 minutes per game, shooting 51.0% from the field and 36.1% from three-point range.

31.5
PPG
5.1
RPG
6.2
APG
1.7
SPG
1.0
BPG
33.8
MPG
51.0%
FG%
36.1%
3P%

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander — recent role

Across his last 5 games, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has played 38.4 minutes per game and started 100% of them.

38.4
MPG (L5)
28.2
PPG (L5)
100%
Started

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander — points hit rate

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has scored over 15.5 points in 56% of 267 career games.

o11.573%
o12.568%
o15.556%
o20.536%
o25.518%
o30.510%

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander — home vs away scoring

At home Shai Gilgeous-Alexander averages 31.5 points per game; on the road, 31.5. Worth checking against tonight's points line.

31.5
PPG at home
31.5
PPG on the road

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander — scoring by opponent

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scores most against the CLE, averaging 28.3 points per game in that matchup.

28.3
CLE
27.6
DET
27.4
SAC
26.8
WSH
26.7
ATL
26.3
PHX

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander — last 10 games

Over his last 10 games, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has averaged 29.4 points, 6.5 rebounds and 6.6 assists.

DateOppMinPtsRebAst
13 Mayvs DEN393167
11 May@ DEN382566
9 May@ DEN4518137
7 Mayvs DEN303448
5 Mayvs DEN4033108
26 Apr@ MEM383856
24 Apr@ MEM403148
22 Aprvs MEM382785
20 Aprvs MEM231535
8 Aprvs LAL374266
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
28 Oct 26 Oklahoma City Thunder @ Dallas Mavericks Pts + Rebs + Asts 40.5 Under +125 ✓ HIT
25 Oct 26 Los Angeles Clippers @ Oklahoma City Thunder Points 6.5 Over -233 ✓ HIT
07 Apr 26 Oklahoma City Thunder @ Los Angeles Lakers Points — — — Pending
07 Apr 26 Oklahoma City Thunder @ Los Angeles Lakers Points — — — Pending
07 Apr 26 Oklahoma City Thunder @ Los Angeles Lakers Pts + Rebs — — — Pending

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About This Player

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Oklahoma City Thunder) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is Under 40.5 on Points + Rebounds + Assists. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +26.9% on this pick. Their next game is Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks on Wednesday 28 October at American Airlines Center, Dallas. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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