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The latest Bet Better model pick for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is Over 29.5 on Points.
On the Points market the model assigns a model win probability of 71%, versus the book's implied 51%, for a model edge of +20.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:08PM UTC
NBA

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Oklahoma City Thunder

+20.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Points Over 29.5 -102 (1.98)
+20.2% Edge
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Los Angeles Clippers
Intuit Dome, Inglewood, CA · Indoor
Thu 9 Apr, 2:00AM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
70.7%
Implied Probability
50.5%
Model Edge
+20.2%
Predicted Value
32.7 Points

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Points70.7%—50.5%1.41+20.2%

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AI Analysis

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Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Oklahoma City Thunder) Over 29.5 Points (-102)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is primed for a standout performance as the Oklahoma City Thunder face off against the Los Angeles Clippers. With an impressive average of 30 points over his last five games, he's clearly in a groove. Even more telling is his scoring against the Clippers specifically, where he's been lighting it up for an average of 32.2 points in their recent matchups. As he takes the floor in L.A., his away game statistics tell a compelling story too; he's hitting the Over on 29.5 points in 9 of his last 13 outings on the road. Coupled with his expected stat value of 32.67, it seems almost a foregone conclusion that he'll eclipse that 29.5 mark. With the Thunder relying on his offensive prowess, this feels like a bet worth making. Expect SGA to shine brightly under the Staples Center lights!

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
3-Pointers Made2024-25 · formNo line posted
1.7avg · last 10
L51.0Szn2.0Home2.1Away1.9Best6
1+93%
2+60%
3+35%
4+11%
Game log vs O 1.5avg 1.7 · hi 5 · lo 0
5132121101

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 1.7 3-pointers made over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 2.0, best 6). He clears 2+ in 60% of 2024-25 games.

Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
80%hit · L10
6.6avg · last 10
L57.2Szn6.2Home6.1Away6.4Best14
2+97%
4+89%
6+63%
8+38%
10+3%
Game log vs O 5.5avg 6.6 · hi 8 · lo 5
6558688767

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 6.6 assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 6.2, best 14). He clears 6+ in 63% of 2024-25 games.

Blocks2024-25 · formNo line posted
60%hit · L10
0.8avg · last 10
L50.6Szn1.0Home1.0Away0.9Best5
1+58%
2+30%
3+8%
Game log vs O 0.5avg 0.8 · hi 2 · lo 0
1201110002

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 0.8 blocks over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 1.0, best 5). He clears 1+ in 58% of 2024-25 games.

Points2024-25 · formNo line posted
29.4avg · last 10
L528.2Szn31.5Home31.5Away31.5Best54
22+91%
27+76%
32+48%
37+23%
42+9%
Game log vs O 31.5avg 29.4 · hi 42 · lo 15
42152731383334182531

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 29.4 points over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 31.5, best 54). He clears 32+ in 48% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
50%hit · L10
35.9avg · last 10
L536.0Szn36.6Home36.7Away36.4Best62
27+91%
32+76%
37+47%
42+26%
47+14%
Game log vs O 36.5avg 35.9 · hi 48 · lo 18
48183535434338313137

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 35.9 points + rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 36.6, best 62). He clears 37+ in 47% of 2024-25 games.

Pts + Reb + Ast2024-25 · formNo line posted
60%hit · L10
42.5avg · last 10
L543.2Szn42.8Home42.8Away42.8Best67
33+92%
38+76%
43+52%
48+27%
53+15%
Game log vs O 42.5avg 42.5 · hi 54 · lo 23
54234043495146383744

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 42.5 pts + reb + ast over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 42.8, best 67). He clears 43+ in 52% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
70%hit · L10
6.5avg · last 10
L57.8Szn5.1Home5.1Away5.0Best20
1+98%
3+86%
5+52%
7+27%
9+8%
Game log vs O 4.5avg 6.5 · hi 13 · lo 3
638451041366

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 6.5 rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 5.1, best 20). He clears 5+ in 52% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds + Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
90%hit · L10
13.1avg · last 10
L515.0Szn11.3Home11.3Away11.3Best30
5+97%
8+90%
11+60%
14+20%
17+7%
Game log vs O 10.5avg 13.1 · hi 20 · lo 8
1281312111812201213

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 13.1 rebounds + assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 11.3, best 30). He clears 11+ in 60% of 2024-25 games.

Steals2024-25 · formNo line posted
60%hit · L10
1.3avg · last 10
L51.6Szn1.7Home1.6Away1.7Best7
1+77%
2+55%
3+25%
4+7%
Game log vs O 1.5avg 1.3 · hi 2 · lo 0
0021220222

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 1.3 steals over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 1.7, best 7). He clears 2+ in 55% of 2024-25 games.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
08 Apr 26 Oklahoma City Thunder @ Los Angeles Lakers Pts + Rebs 34.5 Over -104 ✗ MISS
08 Apr 26 Oklahoma City Thunder @ Los Angeles Lakers Points 28.5 Over -123 ✗ MISS
08 Apr 26 Oklahoma City Thunder @ Los Angeles Lakers Points 29.5 Over -132 ✗ MISS
08 Apr 26 Oklahoma City Thunder @ Los Angeles Lakers Pts + Rebs — — — Pending
08 Apr 26 Oklahoma City Thunder @ Los Angeles Lakers Pts + Rebs — — — Pending
08 Apr 26 Oklahoma City Thunder @ Los Angeles Lakers Points — — — Pending

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About This Player

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Oklahoma City Thunder) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is Over 29.5 on Points. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +20.2% on this pick. Their next game is Oklahoma City Thunder vs Los Angeles Clippers on Thursday 9 April at Intuit Dome, Inglewood. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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