It's Monday, March 2026, and the LA Lakers are back on their home court, ready to take on the Sacramento Kings. All eyes are on Luka Doncic, the man who's been lighting up the scoreboard lately. But here's the thing - we're betting under 37.5 points + assists for Doncic, and here's why. While his home performance is typically stronger, averaging about 33.8 points and 6.4 assists in the last five games, it's not quite hitting the mark we're looking at here. When you consider his slightly lower averages against the Kings - 27.2 points and 9.6 assists, the under 37.5 becomes even more enticing. It's a bold move, but the numbers don't lie. So, let's turn the spotlight away from Doncic's flashy performances for a moment and let the stats guide our bet. This is one under that's worth backing.
Malik Monk (Sacramento Kings) Over 1.5 Threes Made (-179)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishingWhen Malik Monk steps onto the hardwood in Sacramento on March 2nd, expect a show. He's a guy who's got a knack for sinking threes, especially when facing the Kings. On average, Malik's been landing 2 trifectas per game against these opponents, and that number only falls slightly to 1.8 when he's on their court. Sure, his overall away-game three-point average might not make you look twice, but keep in mind that we're talking about a player with an expected stat value of 2.18 for this particular match-up. This means we're anticipating he'll outshine his usual performance. Bottom line: we're backing Malik Monk to knock down more than 1.5 threes this game. The numbers are saying he'll likely deliver, and we are all about those numbers. Don't hesitate, folks. Trust the stats, and make the play.
Luka Doncic (Los Angeles Lakers) Over 3.5 Rebounds (-667)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishingLet's talk Luka Doncic, a name synonymous with stellar rebounding records. Monday's clash between the Los Angeles Lakers and the Sacramento Kings is a golden opportunity for him to shine. Doncic has been pulling down an average of 8.6 rebounds in the last five home games, soaring well above our target of 3.5. But let's not forget his performance against the Kings. When they're the rivals, Doncic turns up the heat, grabbing an impressive 10 rebounds on average. In fact, he's hit this mark in all of his last five encounters with the Kings at home. With Doncic's rebounding prowess proven 18 times over the last 20 games, and a flawless record in his last 11 home fixtures, betting on him to go over 3.5 rebounds is more than just playing odds. It's backing a genuine performer who's consistently shown he can deliver.
Marcus Smart (Washington Wizards) Under 2.5 Threes Made (-357)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishingAs we gear up for the Monday night matchup between the Los Angeles Lakers and Sacramento Kings, we're keeping a keen eye on Boston's talent, Marcus Smart. The gifted guard has been consistent but not explosive from downtown recently, averaging 1.8 three-pointers over his last five games, both overall and home-away. While he's had some impressive showings against the Kings in the past, banking on a high three-pointer performance this time might be a long shot. His overall and home-away stats suggest he's more likely to stay under the 2.5 mark. Add to this, his recent hit rate, landing 13 of his last 16 overall and 14 of his last 17 at home, and we see a solid pattern. Smart's shooting style, combined with this data, paints a picture of a player who's reliable but not necessarily a frequent flyer at the three-point line.