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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Chet Holmgren is Under 11.5 on Rebounds.
On the Rebounds market the model assigns a model win probability of 93%, versus the book's implied 81%, for a model edge of +12.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:16AM UTC
NBA

Chet Holmgren

Oklahoma City Thunder

+12.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Rebounds Under 11.5 -435 (1.23)
+12.1% Edge
Phoenix Suns @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK · Indoor
Sun 19 Apr, 7:30PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
93.4%
Implied Probability
81.3%
Model Edge
+12.1%
Predicted Value
7.8 Rebounds

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Rebounds93.4%81.3%1.07+12.1%

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AI Analysis

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Chet Holmgren (Oklahoma City Thunder) Under 11.5 Rebounds (-435)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As the Oklahoma City Thunder prepare to face the Phoenix Suns, targeting Chet Holmgren for under 11.5 rebounds feels like a shrewd play. Despite his impressive potential and home-court advantage, Holmgren's recent performances suggest a more modest output. He's been averaging just 7.6 rebounds in his last five games at home, and when pitted against the Suns, that number dips slightly to around 7.3. With a robust hit rate of 9 out of his last 10 games going under this total, the trend is hard to ignore. The Suns pose a unique challenge; they are adept at limiting opponents' second-chance opportunities, and Holmgren's role may not require him to dominate the glass as much. Given these factors, it's reasonable to expect him to finish below that 11.5 threshold, making the under an enticing choice for savvy bettors.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 3 of last 5(60%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
1.2avg · last 10
L51.0Szn1.7Home1.6Away1.9Best7
2+49%
4+15%
Game log vs O 1.5avg 1.2 · hi 4 · lo 0
4200122001

Chet Holmgren is averaging 1.2 assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 1.7, best 7). He clears 2+ in 49% of 2024-25 games.

Blocks2024-25 · formNo line posted
70%hit · L10
2.2avg · last 10
L52.2Szn2.3Home2.7Away1.8Best8
1+78%
2+66%
3+41%
4+24%
Game log vs O 1.5avg 2.2 · hi 5 · lo 0
0250442302

Chet Holmgren is averaging 2.2 blocks over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 2.3, best 8). He clears 2+ in 66% of 2024-25 games.

Double-Double2024-25 seasonNo line posted
37%double-double rate · 2024-25
L1050%Home23%Away53%
Game log · double-double5 / 10 DD

Chet Holmgren posted a double-double in 37% of 2024-25 games (5 of his last 10).

Points2024-25 · formNo line posted
60%hit · L10
16.3avg · last 10
L513.4Szn15.1Home13.8Away16.6Best36
5+93%
10+80%
15+51%
20+29%
25+7%
Game log vs O 14.5avg 16.3 · hi 24 · lo 8
2219202411121518814

Chet Holmgren is averaging 16.3 points over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 15.1, best 36). He clears 15+ in 51% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
60%hit · L10
17.5avg · last 10
L514.4Szn16.9Home15.4Away18.5Best41
7+93%
12+78%
17+49%
22+20%
27+7%
Game log vs O 16.5avg 17.5 · hi 26 · lo 8
2621202412141718815

Chet Holmgren is averaging 17.5 points + assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 16.9, best 41). He clears 17+ in 49% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
60%hit · L10
25.8avg · last 10
L524.2Szn23.5Home21.0Away26.4Best49
13+85%
18+78%
23+59%
28+32%
33+20%
Game log vs O 22.5avg 25.8 · hi 34 · lo 13
32293132131826342122

Chet Holmgren is averaging 25.8 points + rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 23.5, best 49). He clears 23+ in 59% of 2024-25 games.

Pts + Reb + Ast2024-25 · formNo line posted
60%hit · L10
27.0avg · last 10
L525.2Szn25.2Home22.5Away28.3Best51
15+80%
20+76%
25+56%
30+32%
35+20%
Game log vs O 24.5avg 27 · hi 36 · lo 14
36313132142028342123

Chet Holmgren is averaging 27.0 pts + reb + ast over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 25.2, best 51). He clears 25+ in 56% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
80%hit · L10
9.5avg · last 10
L510.8Szn8.3Home7.1Away9.7Best17
4+93%
6+68%
8+56%
10+39%
12+20%
Game log vs O 7.5avg 9.5 · hi 16 · lo 2
1010118261116138

Chet Holmgren is averaging 9.5 rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 8.3, best 17). He clears 8+ in 56% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds + Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
60%hit · L10
10.7avg · last 10
L511.8Szn10.1Home8.7Away11.6Best21
4+98%
7+71%
10+49%
13+32%
16+15%
Game log vs O 9.5avg 10.7 · hi 16 · lo 3
1412118381316139

Chet Holmgren is averaging 10.7 rebounds + assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 10.1, best 21). He clears 10+ in 49% of 2024-25 games.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
19 Apr 26 Phoenix Suns @ Oklahoma City Thunder Rebounds 11.5 Under -435 ✓ HIT
19 Apr 26 Phoenix Suns @ Oklahoma City Thunder Rebounds 8.5 Under +106 ✓ HIT
08 Apr 26 Oklahoma City Thunder @ Los Angeles Lakers Rebounds 7.5 Under +112 ✗ MISS
05 Apr 26 Utah Jazz @ Oklahoma City Thunder Rebounds Pending
25 Mar 26 Oklahoma City Thunder @ Boston Celtics Pts + Rebs Pending
25 Mar 26 Oklahoma City Thunder @ Boston Celtics Pts + Rebs Pending

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About This Player

Chet Holmgren (Oklahoma City Thunder) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Chet Holmgren is Under 11.5 on Rebounds. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +12.1% on this pick. Their next game is Phoenix Suns vs Oklahoma City Thunder on Sunday 19 April at Paycom Center, Oklahoma City. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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