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Chet Holmgren

Oklahoma City Thunder

+10.2% Edge
Latest Pick
Rebounds Under 8.5 -125 (1.80)
+10.2% Edge
Utah Jazz @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Paycom Center, Oklahoma City
Sun 5 Apr, 11:00PM
Model Probability
65.7%
Implied Probability
55.6%
Model Edge
+10.2%
Predicted Value
7.5 Rebounds

AI Analysis

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Chet Holmgren (Oklahoma City Thunder) Under 8.5 Rebounds (-125)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Oklahoma City Thunder gear up to face the Utah Jazz at home, all eyes will be on Chet Holmgren, but the numbers suggest a cautious approach regarding his rebounding. Despite the buzz around his potential, Holmgren has averaged 7.2 rebounds in his last five games, showing a slight uptick at home with 8. Yet, when matched against the Jazz, he's only pulled down an average of 9 rebounds recently, with a notable home performance peaking at 11.3.With the Jazz likely to employ a strategy to limit second-chance opportunities, Holmgren may find it challenging to eclipse that 8.5 mark tonight. Given his expected stat value of 7.52 and the implied probability indicating a 55.6% chance he stays under, betting the under feels like a savvy move. It's not about Holmgren's potential; it's about the matchups and the numbers, and right now, those lean toward the under.

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Pick History & Track Record

Overall Hit Rate (5 picks) 20.0% (1/5)
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
05 Apr 26 Utah Jazz @ Oklahoma City Thunder Rebounds 8.5 Under -125 ✓ HIT
25 Mar 26 Oklahoma City Thunder @ Boston Celtics Pts + Rebs 23.5 Over -105 ✗ MISS
25 Mar 26 Oklahoma City Thunder @ Boston Celtics Pts + Rebs 22.5 Over -125 ✗ MISS
25 Mar 26 Oklahoma City Thunder @ Boston Celtics Pts + Rebs Pending
25 Mar 26 Oklahoma City Thunder @ Boston Celtics Pts + Rebs Pending

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About This Player

Chet Holmgren (Oklahoma City Thunder) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. Across 5 settled picks, the model has hit at a rate of 20.0% (1/5). The latest model pick for Chet Holmgren is Under 8.5 on Rebounds. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +10.2% on this pick. Their next game is Utah Jazz vs Oklahoma City Thunder on Sunday 5 April at Paycom Center, Oklahoma City. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.