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Chet Holmgren

Oklahoma City Thunder

Value call
🔥 11 Consecutive Hits

Chet Holmgren (Oklahoma City Thunder) has one live pick today: under 16.5 points that pays $180 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LEAN
How often this wins
54 in 100
Predicted
13.0 points
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 53.6% · before adjusting for past results 79.5% · the book's price implies 55.6% · gap -1.9%.

Latest Model PickFree
Phoenix Suns @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK · Indoor
Mon 26 Oct, 8:00 PM ET
Chet Holmgren
under 16.5 points
Points Under 16.5 -125 (1.80) · $100→$180
Value call
LEANWins about 54 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$18.00 Odds-125
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Chet Holmgren is Under 16.5 on Points.
On Points, our numbers say this bet wins about 54 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 54%, the price says 56%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Nov 2, 10:14AM UTC
OUT
Holmgren underwent a biological treatment Friday to address a small patellar tendon tear and will miss at least 8-10 weeks, Nick Crain of Slam reports.
updated Oct 31, 1:02AM UTC · 2d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Points79.5%53.6%55.6%1.86+23.9%

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AI Analysis

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Oklahoma City Thunder vs Phoenix Suns: Chet Holmgren Under 16.5 Points (-125)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Chet Holmgren has been playing well lately, but the Thunder have a tendency to let opponents shoot lots of three-pointers and grab plenty of rebounds. This can make it tough for any player, including Holmgren, to score consistently. The Suns are also a solid team defensively, which might limit his opportunities to rack up points. The Thunder allow a lot of rebounds, which means the Suns could control the game and keep the pace up. While Holmgren has talent, the way these two teams match up could mean he doesn't hit the 16.5 points mark. The risk here is that Holmgren has been on a scoring roll, but the matchup suggests he might struggle to keep that going tonight.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 3 of last 5(60%)

Chet Holmgren — 2024-25 season averages

Over 41 games in the 2024-25 season, Chet Holmgren averaged 15.1 points, 8.3 rebounds and 1.7 assists in 28.0 minutes per game, shooting 47.8% from the field and 37.1% from three-point range.

15.1
PPG
8.3
RPG
1.7
APG
0.8
SPG
2.3
BPG
28.0
MPG
47.8%
FG%
37.1%
3P%

Chet Holmgren — recent role

Across his last 5 games, Chet Holmgren has played 31.4 minutes per game and started 100% of them.

31.4
MPG (L5)
13.4
PPG (L5)
100%
Started

Chet Holmgren — home vs away scoring

At home Chet Holmgren averages 13.8 points per game; on the road, 16.6. Worth checking against tonight's points line.

13.8
PPG at home
16.6
PPG on the road

Chet Holmgren — last 10 games

Over his last 10 games, Chet Holmgren has averaged 16.3 points, 9.5 rebounds and 1.2 assists.

DateOppMinPtsRebAst
13 Mayvs DEN341481
11 May@ DEN298130
9 May@ DEN4018160
7 Mayvs DEN2615112
5 Mayvs DEN281262
26 Apr@ MEM291121
24 Apr@ MEM322480
22 Aprvs MEM3320110
20 Aprvs MEM2119102
9 Apr@ PHX3022104
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
19 Apr 26 Phoenix Suns @ Oklahoma City Thunder Rebounds 11.5 Under -417 ✓ HIT
19 Apr 26 Phoenix Suns @ Oklahoma City Thunder Rebounds 8.5 Under +106 ✓ HIT
05 Apr 26 Utah Jazz @ Oklahoma City Thunder Rebounds 8.5 Under -125 ✓ HIT
07 Apr 26 Oklahoma City Thunder @ Los Angeles Lakers Rebounds — — — Pending
25 Mar 26 Oklahoma City Thunder @ Boston Celtics Pts + Rebs — — — Pending
25 Mar 26 Oklahoma City Thunder @ Boston Celtics Pts + Rebs — — — Pending

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About This Player

Chet Holmgren (Oklahoma City Thunder) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. Chet Holmgren is currently on a 11-pick winning streak. The latest model pick for Chet Holmgren is Under 16.5 on Points. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +23.9% on this pick. Their next game is Phoenix Suns vs Oklahoma City Thunder on Monday 26 October at Paycom Center, Oklahoma City. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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