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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Chet Holmgren is Under 8.5 on Rebounds.
On Rebounds, our numbers say this bet wins about 61 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 61%, implied 49%, edge +12.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Aug 31, 8:25PM UTC
NBA

Chet Holmgren

Oklahoma City Thunder

+12.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Rebounds Under 8.5 +106 (2.06) · $100→$206
+12.2% Edge
Phoenix Suns @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK · Indoor
Sun 19 Apr, 7:30PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
61 in 100
Predicted
7.8 Rebounds
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 60.8% · the book's price implies 48.5% · gap +12.2%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Rebounds60.8%48.5%1.65+12.2%

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AI Analysis

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Chet Holmgren (Oklahoma City Thunder) Under 8.5 Rebounds (+106)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Oklahoma City Thunder gear up to host the Phoenix Suns, keep an eye on Chet Holmgren's rebounding numbers. While averaging 8.8 rebounds over his last five games sounds impressive, a deeper dive reveals a different story at home, where he's pulled down just 7.6 boards in that span. Against the Suns, Holmgren's performance dips even more, with an average of only 7 rebounds in their last five encounters. This trend suggests a potential struggle against Phoenix's frontcourt. With the implied probability of Holmgren hitting the under at 48.5%, it's worth considering his recent home outings, where he's only cleared the 8.5 mark in 2 of his last 3 games. With the stakes high, targeting the under on his rebounds could be a savvy play, especially with the odds tipping in our favor.

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Pick History & Track Record

Chet Holmgren — 2024-25 season averages

Over 41 games in the 2024-25 season, Chet Holmgren averaged 15.1 points, 8.3 rebounds and 1.7 assists in 28.0 minutes per game, shooting 47.8% from the field and 37.1% from three-point range.

15.1
PPG
8.3
RPG
1.7
APG
0.8
SPG
2.3
BPG
28.0
MPG
47.8%
FG%
37.1%
3P%

Chet Holmgren — recent role

Across his last 5 games, Chet Holmgren has played 31.4 minutes per game and started 100% of them.

31.4
MPG (L5)
13.4
PPG (L5)
100%
Started

Chet Holmgren — home vs away scoring

At home Chet Holmgren averages 13.8 points per game; on the road, 16.6. Worth checking against tonight's points line.

13.8
PPG at home
16.6
PPG on the road

Chet Holmgren — last 10 games

Over his last 10 games, Chet Holmgren has averaged 16.3 points, 9.5 rebounds and 1.2 assists.

DateOppMinPtsRebAst
13 Mayvs DEN341481
11 May@ DEN298130
9 May@ DEN4018160
7 Mayvs DEN2615112
5 Mayvs DEN281262
26 Apr@ MEM291121
24 Apr@ MEM322480
22 Aprvs MEM3320110
20 Aprvs MEM2119102
9 Apr@ PHX3022104
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Chet Holmgren (Oklahoma City Thunder) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Chet Holmgren is Under 8.5 on Rebounds. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +12.2% on this pick. Their next game is Phoenix Suns vs Oklahoma City Thunder on Sunday 19 April at Paycom Center, Oklahoma City. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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