As the Indiana Pacers head to Madison Square Garden, all eyes will be on Aaron Nesmith, but I'm leaning towards the Under 18.5 points and rebounds for him in this matchup. While he plays an important role, his recent outings tell a different story. Over his last five games, he's averaging just 8.4 points and 5 rebounds, well below our target. Even when he's on the road, those numbers tick slightly up to 8.8 points and 6 rebounds, yet he's still far from the mark. Facing the Knicks, Nesmith has only managed about 9.8 points and 4.4 rebounds in their last five encounters, with his away averages dropping to 13.6 points and 3.4 rebounds against them. With a hit rate of just 2 out of his last 3 away games, the Under feels like a strong play here. Don't sleep on this one!
OG Anunoby (New York Knicks) Under 33.5 Points + Rebounds (-1250)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishingWhen you look at OG Anunoby's recent performances, the under on his combined points and rebounds seems like a savvy play. Playing at home against the Indiana Pacers, he's averaging just 17.2 points and 4.8 rebounds over his last five games in Madison Square Garden. That brings his expected contributions to around 22.25, significantly below the 33.5 mark we're eyeing. Digging deeper, his home stats against the Pacers reveal even lower numbers, with just 12.4 points and 3.2 rebounds-a pattern that suggests Indiana has figured out how to limit his impact. Considering Anunoby has hit the under on this combined total in every single one of his last 20 outings, including all 11 at home, it's hard not to feel confident in this bet. The numbers are telling a clear story: expect a quieter night for Anunoby as he navigates the Knicks' defensive schemes.
Karl-Anthony Towns (New York Knicks) Under 33.5 Points (-1250)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishingWhen the Knicks host the Pacers, all eyes will be on Karl-Anthony Towns, but betting on him to exceed 33.5 points might not be the smartest call. Sure, his recent form shows an impressive average of 22.8 points over the last five games, but let's dig deeper. At home, he's slightly better, averaging 24.6, yet historically against the Pacers, he's also at 22.8. What stands out is that Towns has been held under this mark convincingly, with an overall hit rate of 5 for 5 in the last five games. The implied probability of him not hitting that 33.5 threshold sits at a staggering 92.6%. While his scoring prowess is undeniable, this matchup doesn't align with the numbers we're seeing. The smart bet here is the Under-Towns is likely to be contained in a game where he'll have to share the spotlight.
Karl-Anthony Towns (New York Knicks) Under 19.5 Rebounds + Assists (-1111)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishingAs the New York Knicks prepare to face the Indiana Pacers, all eyes will be on Karl-Anthony Towns, but this might be a game to target the under on his combined rebounds and assists at 19.5. While Towns has been a force, averaging 12.2 rebounds and 1.8 assists over his last five outings, his home performance tells a different story. At Madison Square Garden, he's been averaging just 11 rebounds and 1.4 assists in similar matchups. Going against the Pacers, who have proven tough defensively, Towns has hit this under consistently-20 for 20 overall and a perfect 13 for 13 at home. The implications are clear: his expected stat value lands around 14.52, well below our target. With the Knicks' defensive intensity coupled with Towns' recent trends, betting the under on his total feels like a smart play.