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Model picks & player props
Memphis Grizzlies
VS
Dallas Mavericks

Memphis Grizzlies vs Dallas Mavericks Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 11:21AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

NBA
American Airlines Center, Dallas
Indoor
Sat 28 Feb 2026, 1:30AM
9
Game Picks
8
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Dallas Mavericks (Moneyline)
For Memphis Grizzlies vs Dallas Mavericks (NBA), model win probability 37.6%, fair odds 2.66, book price +1100, model edge +29.3%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Sat 28 Feb 2026, 1:30AM at American Airlines Center.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Moneyline
Dallas Mavericks
+ 8 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Dallas MavericksMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Memphis GrizzliesPoint SpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Memphis GrizzliesMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Memphis Grizzlies

  • Walter Clayton Jr. GDay-to-day
  • Karim Lopez FDay-to-day
  • GG Jackson FDay-to-day
  • Richie Saunders GOut
  • Jaylen Wells FDay-to-day
  • Zach Edey CDay-to-day
  • Kentavious Caldwell-Pope GDay-to-day
  • Cam Spencer GDay-to-day
  • Scotty Pippen Jr. GDay-to-day
  • Ty Jerome GDay-to-day

Dallas Mavericks

  • Morez Johnson Jr. FDay-to-day
  • Santi Aldama FDay-to-day
  • Dereck Lively II CDay-to-day
  • Naji Marshall FDay-to-day
  • Cooper Flagg FDay-to-day
  • P.J. Washington FDay-to-day
  • Caleb Martin FDay-to-day
  • Kyrie Irving GDay-to-day
Availability updated Jul 20, 1:00AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Memphis Grizzlies vs Dallas Mavericks: Weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture, and 18 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Availability18 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Cam Spencer Memphis Grizzlies Pts + Asts 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Tyus Jones Phoenix Suns Points 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Naji Marshall Dallas Mavericks Steals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Daniel Gafford Dallas Mavericks Blocks 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Brandon Williams Dallas Mavericks Assists 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
Total PointsMemphis Grizzlies @ Dallas MavericksNo line posted

Dallas Mavericks and Memphis Grizzlies combine for their season scoring; the game total posts pre-tip.

Point SpreadDallas Mavericks spreadNo line posted

Dallas Mavericks (season record) meet Memphis Grizzlies; the spread and model cover probability refresh when the game is scheduled.

MoneylineDallas Mavericks to winNo line posted

Dallas Mavericks (season record) host or visit Memphis Grizzlies; moneyline odds and win probability refresh when the season resumes.

Team Total (Home)Dallas Mavericks totalNo line posted

Dallas Mavericks averaged their season scoring ahead of facing Memphis Grizzlies; team-total lines refresh pre-game.

Team Total (Away)Memphis Grizzlies totalNo line posted

Memphis Grizzlies averaged their season scoring ahead of facing Dallas Mavericks; team-total lines refresh pre-game.

Memphis Grizzlies @ Dallas Mavericks — model preview

<p>Winning bets for Dallas Mavericks vs Memphis Grizzlies? We break down odds and insights. Includes analysis on key players like Naji Marshall. Explore NBA predictions, NBA game picks, betting preview, Dallas Mavericks vs Memphis Grizzlies stats and odds.</p>

Naji Marshall (Dallas Mavericks) Under 1.5 Steals (-189)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

When the Dallas Mavericks meet the Memphis Grizzlies on the home court this Saturday, keep an eye on Naji Marshall. Despite an impressive average of 1.6 steals per game overall, when facing the Grizzlies, Marshall's performance takes a noticeable dip. He's been averaging only 0.8 steals against this opponent and that number drops even further to 0.4 at home. The grizzlies seem to know how to keep the ball away from Marshall. It's also worth noting that Marshall's expected stat value for this game is just 0.9, well below the 1.5 line set by DraftKings. Marshall has hit the under in 2 out of the last 3 home games, giving us more confidence in this bet. So, for those considering a wager on the 'Under 1.5 Steals' market, it's a bet worth contemplating. Marshall's track record against the Grizzlies suggests he's unlikely to exceed that threshold.

Brandon Williams (Dallas Mavericks) Over 1.5 Assists (-500)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

When it comes to dishing out assists, Brandon Williams of the Dallas Mavericks has been cooking up a storm lately. His recent performances on home court have been impressive, averaging 4.2 assists per game. And with the Memphis Grizzlies visiting this Saturday, Williams has a chance to up the ante. Let's not forget that he's already been proving his worth against this particular opponent, notching up an average of 3.5 assists at home. The over 1.5 assists seems like a cakewalk for him, especially with his consistent record of hitting 11 out of 11 in his overall recent games and an enviable 6 out of 6 in home games. Williams is on fire and looks set to keep this streak alive. So, put your faith in Brandon Williams and expect those assists to keep rolling in.

Max Christie (Dallas Mavericks) Over 2.5 Rebounds (-244)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Let's turn our attention to Max Christie of the Dallas Mavericks as they host the Memphis Grizzlies this Saturday. Now, Christie has been showing off some serious glass-cleaning skills, especially when playing at home. His average overall rebounds lately have been 3.8, but when he gets to strut his stuff on the Mavericks' court, that number jumps up to 6. Not too shabby, right? Sure, his record against the Grizzlies might seem a bit modest with an average of 2.6 rebounds, but even there he's been improving, pulling down an average of 2.8 rebounds in recent home encounters. In fact, Christie's been so consistent at home that he's covered this Over 2.5 rebounds prop in his last six home games. Given his current form and the home court advantage, betting on Christie to snag more than 2.5 boards looks like a solid play.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
4
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
28 Feb 26 Team Total Points Under 131.5 ✓ HIT
28 Feb 26 Team Total Points Over 104.5 ✓ HIT
28 Feb 26 Point Spread Memphis Grizzlies 4.5 ✓ HIT
28 Feb 26 Moneyline Memphis Grizzlies ✓ HIT

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Memphis Grizzlies vs Dallas Mavericks in the NBA. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Saturday 28 February 2026 at American Airlines Center. The model has generated 9 game picks and 8 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your NBA betting strategy for this matchup.

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