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Model picks & player props
Memphis Grizzlies
VS
Dallas Mavericks

Memphis Grizzlies vs Dallas Mavericks Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 30, 6:54PM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

NBA
American Airlines Center, Dallas
Indoor
Sat 28 Feb 2026, 1:30AM
9
Game markets graded
8
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Dallas Mavericks Moneyline +1100

The model graded 17 markets for Memphis Grizzlies vs Dallas Mavericks (NBA) and this is the one it backs hardest — a long shot. A $100 bet returns about $1,200 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sat 28 Feb 2026, 1:30AM at American Airlines Center.

Our confidenceLong-shot
Chance to win37.6%
The price says8.3%
Best price+1100
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Moneyline Dallas Mavericks Long-shot38% chance +1100
Spread High77% chance
Moneyline High62% chance
Team Total High90% chance
Team Total High95% chance
Pts + Asts × 1 prop Highup to 99%
Points × 1 prop Highup to 69%
Steals × 2 props Highup to 74%
Blocks × 1 prop Highup to 68%
Assists × 1 prop Highup to 88%
3-Pointers × 1 prop Highup to 94%
Rebounds × 1 prop Highup to 74%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Moneyline
Dallas Mavericks
+ 8 more markets
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All 9 game markets and 8 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 56,376+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Dallas MavericksMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Memphis GrizzliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Memphis GrizzliesMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Memphis Grizzlies

  • Scotty Pippen Jr. GDay-to-day
  • Walter Clayton Jr. GDay-to-day
  • Karim Lopez FDay-to-day
  • Richie Saunders GOut
  • Jaylen Wells FDay-to-day
  • Zach Edey CDay-to-day

Dallas Mavericks

  • Santi Aldama FDay-to-day
  • Kyrie Irving GDay-to-day
  • Dereck Lively II CDay-to-day
Availability updated Aug 19, 5:24PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Memphis Grizzlies vs Dallas Mavericks: Weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture, and 9 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Availability9 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Cam Spencer Memphis Grizzlies Pts + Asts
Tyus Jones Phoenix Suns Points
Naji Marshall Dallas Mavericks Steals
Daniel Gafford Dallas Mavericks Blocks
Brandon Williams Dallas Mavericks Assists

+ 8 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
Total PointsMemphis Grizzlies @ Dallas MavericksNo line posted

Dallas Mavericks and Memphis Grizzlies combine for their season scoring; the game total posts pre-tip.

Point SpreadDallas Mavericks spreadNo line posted

Dallas Mavericks (season record) meet Memphis Grizzlies; the spread and model cover probability refresh when the game is scheduled.

MoneylineDallas Mavericks to winNo line posted

Dallas Mavericks (season record) host or visit Memphis Grizzlies; moneyline odds and win probability refresh when the season resumes.

Team Total (Home)Dallas Mavericks totalNo line posted

Dallas Mavericks averaged their season scoring ahead of facing Memphis Grizzlies; team-total lines refresh pre-game.

Team Total (Away)Memphis Grizzlies totalNo line posted

Memphis Grizzlies averaged their season scoring ahead of facing Dallas Mavericks; team-total lines refresh pre-game.

Memphis Grizzlies @ Dallas Mavericks — what the model found

Our model graded 17 betting markets for Memphis Grizzlies at Dallas Mavericks — 9 on the game itself and 8 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

9
Game markets graded
8
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 17 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 16 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Memphis Grizzlies vs Dallas Mavericks — recent results

Dallas Mavericks have won 2 of their last 5 games; Memphis Grizzlies have won 0 of their last 5.

Dallas Mavericks — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W149–128CHIHome
L120–139SAAway
L107–112PHXAway
L103–116LACAway
W134–128LALHome
Memphis Grizzlies — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L101–132HOUAway
L101–147UTAHAway
L119–136DENAway
L126–142CLEHome
L115–131MILAway

Memphis Grizzlies vs Dallas Mavericks — recent meetings

These two have met 2 times recently: Dallas Mavericks won 1, Memphis Grizzlies won 1.

DateDallas MavericksMemphis GrizzliesWinner
Mar 13120112Dallas Mavericks
Feb 28105124Memphis Grizzlies

Who’s out or in doubt

9 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Dallas Mavericks
PlayerStatus
Santi Aldama FDAY-TO-DAY
Kyrie Irving GDAY-TO-DAY
Dereck Lively II CDAY-TO-DAY
Memphis Grizzlies
PlayerStatus
Scotty Pippen Jr. GDAY-TO-DAY
Walter Clayton Jr. GDAY-TO-DAY
Karim Lopez FDAY-TO-DAY
Richie Saunders GOUT
Jaylen Wells FDAY-TO-DAY
Zach Edey CDAY-TO-DAY

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Memphis Grizzlies @ Dallas Mavericks — model preview

Winning bets for Dallas Mavericks vs Memphis Grizzlies? We break down odds and insights. Includes analysis on key players like Naji Marshall. Explore NBA predictions, NBA game picks, betting preview, Dallas Mavericks vs Memphis Grizzlies stats and odds.

Naji Marshall (Dallas Mavericks) Under 1.5 Steals (-189)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

When the Dallas Mavericks meet the Memphis Grizzlies on the home court this Saturday, keep an eye on Naji Marshall. Despite an impressive average of 1.6 steals per game overall, when facing the Grizzlies, Marshall's performance takes a noticeable dip. He's been averaging only 0.8 steals against this opponent and that number drops even further to 0.4 at home. The grizzlies seem to know how to keep the ball away from Marshall. It's also worth noting that Marshall's expected stat value for this game is just 0.9, well below the 1.5 line set by DraftKings. Marshall has hit the under in 2 out of the last 3 home games, giving us more confidence in this bet. So, for those considering a wager on the 'Under 1.5 Steals' market, it's a bet worth contemplating. Marshall's track record against the Grizzlies suggests he's unlikely to exceed that threshold.

🔒 The other 2 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
4
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
28 Feb 26 Team Total Under 131.5 ✓ HIT
28 Feb 26 Team Total Over 104.5 ✓ HIT
28 Feb 26 Spread Memphis Grizzlies +4.5 ✓ HIT
28 Feb 26 Moneyline Memphis Grizzlies ✓ HIT

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Memphis Grizzlies vs Dallas Mavericks in the NBA. You may also see this matchup written as Grizzlies vs Mavericks, or as Mavericks vs Grizzlies. The most recent game between them was Saturday 28 February 2026 at American Airlines Center. The model has generated 9 game picks and 8 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your NBA betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 2 meetings on record
Even at 1–1 across the last 2 meetings
DateGameScoreWinner
13 Mar 2026Dallas Mavericks @ Memphis Grizzlies112–120Dallas Mavericks
28 Feb 2026Memphis Grizzlies @ Dallas Mavericks105–124Memphis Grizzlies
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