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Model picks & player props
New York Mets
VS
Toronto Blue Jays

New York Mets vs Toronto Blue Jays Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 22, 6:53PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Rogers Centre, Toronto
Indoor
Mon 29 Jun 2026, 11:07PM
20
Game Picks
2
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: New York Mets -2.5 (Spread)
For New York Mets vs Toronto Blue Jays (MLB), model win probability 31.5%, fair odds 3.17, book price +265, model edge +4.1%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Mon 29 Jun 2026, 11:07PM at Rogers Centre.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Spread
New York Mets
1.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
New York MetsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

New York Mets

  • Clay Holmes SPOut
  • Justin Hagenman RPOut
  • Mark Vientos 1BOut
  • Austin Warren RPOut
  • Dedniel Nunez RPOut
  • Reed Garrett RPOut
  • Tylor Megill SPOut

Probable pitcher

Zac Thornton SP

Toronto Blue Jays

  • Jonatan Clase LFDay-to-day
  • Yimi Garcia RPOut
  • Max Scherzer SPOut
  • Lenyn Sosa 2BOut
  • Addison Barger RFOut
  • Anthony Santander RFOut
  • Jesus Sanchez RFOut
  • Joe Mantiply RPOut
  • Jose Berrios SPOut
  • Cody Ponce SPOut
  • Bowden Francis SPOut

Probable pitcher

Kevin Gausman SP
Availability updated Jul 21, 11:40PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For New York Mets vs Toronto Blue Jays: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 18 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability18 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Sean Manaea Pitcher - Strikeouts 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineToronto Blue JaysNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF1.2L5 RA3.4Home L51-4vs New York Mets L52-3Win rec3-9

Toronto Blue Jays moneyline form: last five 1-4, 1.2 runs/gm.

Run LineToronto Blue Jays run lineNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF1.2L5 RA3.4Home L51-4vs New York Mets L52-3ATS5-9

Toronto Blue Jays spread form: last five 1-4, 1.2 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Toronto Blue Jays vs New York MetsNo line posted

Toronto Blue Jays total runs form: last five 1-4, 1.2 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsToronto Blue Jays team totalNo line posted
1.7implied team total
L5 RF1.2L5 RA3.4Home L51-4vs New York Mets L52-3

Toronto Blue Jays team total runs form: last five 1-4, 1.2 runs/gm.

New York Mets vs Toronto Blue Jays — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Toronto Blue Jays are scoring 3.0 runs per game (2-3) while New York Mets are at 4.0 (1-4); Toronto Blue Jays pitchers are allowing 2.2 earned runs per game versus 3.6 for New York Mets.

3.0
Toronto Blue Jays runs/G
4.0
New York Mets runs/G
Last 5 gamesToronto Blue JaysNew York Mets
Runs / game3.04.0
Hits / game5.25.0
Home runs / game1.20.4
Walks drawn / game1.21.8
Batter K / game4.83.0
Earned runs allowed / game2.23.6
Pitching K / game2.85.2
Walks allowed / game2.62.0
L5 record2-31-4

New York Mets @ Toronto Blue Jays — model preview

<p>Expert analysis and top MLB betting picks for Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Mets. Includes analysis on key players like NA. Discover MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Mets stats and odds.</p>

Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Mets : Over 8.5 Total Runs (-109)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Blue Jays welcome the Mets to Rogers Centre, we’re looking at a scenario ripe for runs. Toronto’s offense has been explosive, averaging over five runs per game lately, thanks to their deep lineup featuring powerful hitters like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette. Meanwhile, the Mets have shown flashes of offensive prowess, particularly against right-handers, making them a serious threat in this matchup. On the mound, both teams have sketched a shaky narrative recently. The Blue Jays’ starter has struggled with command, while the Mets' pitcher has been prone to giving up big innings. With the weather favoring a warm, humid evening—conditions that typically boost offensive production—expect fireworks. The model projects a total of nearly ten runs, aligning with the trend of high-scoring games involving both squads. This game has the makings of a slugfest, making the 'Over 8.5' a compelling play.

Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Mets : Over 10 Total Runs (+157)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Toronto Blue Jays square off against the New York Mets, the stage is set for a potential run-fest. Both teams have recently shown a penchant for offensive explosions; the Blue Jays boast a lineup that can unleash power at any moment, with several players hovering around or above .300. Meanwhile, the Mets have made strides at the plate, showcasing their ability to capitalize on pitchers' mistakes. On the mound, let's not forget the volatility of both teams' starters. The Blue Jays’ recent outings reveal a tendency to struggle against left-handers, while the Mets' pitching depth has been shaky, particularly in high-pressure situations. This combination of potent offenses and suspect pitching makes the 'Over 10' an enticing wager. With each team capable of scoring in bunches, expect plenty of fireworks under the Toronto sky. Buckle up, because this matchup could very well see the scoreboard light up.

Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Mets : Over 7.5 Total Runs (-159)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Toronto Blue Jays host the New York Mets, the stage is set for a high-scoring affair. The Blue Jays have been swinging hot bats lately, averaging over five runs per game in their last ten outings. With their lineup featuring heavy hitters like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, they can easily capitalize on any pitcher mistakes. On the mound, the Mets are sending out a starter who has struggled with consistency, allowing nearly six earned runs in his last few starts. The Blue Jays’ potent offense could exploit this vulnerability, especially playing at home where they thrive. Meanwhile, the Mets’ offense isn’t to be taken lightly, either, boasting a knack for putting runs on the board, especially against right-handed pitchers. With both teams showing offensive firepower and the over/under line sitting at a modest 7.5, betting on the Over feels like a savvy play. Expect fireworks at the Rogers Centre tonight!

Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Mets : Over 8 Total Runs (-135)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Blue Jays gear up to host the Mets on June 29, the stage is set for a high-scoring affair. Toronto's offense has been firing on all cylinders lately, averaging over five runs per game in their last ten, fueled by the likes of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, who have been relentless at the plate. On the flip side, the Mets' lineup, with Pete Alonso leading the charge, has shown a knack for putting runs on the board, especially against right-handed pitching, which makes their matchup against Toronto’s starter a juicy prospect. Considering the trends, both teams have consistently pushed the envelope on run production, and with a model prediction sitting comfortably above the line at nearly ten runs, the 'Over 8' feels like the right play. Expect fireworks as these two potent lineups clash; it’s a perfect night for some offensive fireworks at the Rogers Centre.

Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Mets : Over 10.5 Total Runs (+180)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Toronto Blue Jays host the New York Mets, expect a high-scoring affair on Monday night. The Blue Jays have been swinging hot bats lately, averaging over five runs per game in June, fueled by a lineup that features the formidable duo of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette. Their ability to drive in runs, especially at the Rogers Centre, sets the stage for fireworks. On the other side, the Mets have struggled with consistency on the mound. With their starting pitcher allowing a troubling 1.5 home runs per nine innings, the potential for the Blue Jays to capitalize is significant. Plus, the Mets’ offense has shown signs of life, especially against left-handed pitching, which could lead to a back-and-forth battle. With both teams boasting the offensive firepower and a pitcher’s duel unlikely, taking the 'Over 10.5' feels like a no-brainer as the stage is perfectly set for a scoring spree.

Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Mets : Over 8.5 Total Runs (-118)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Toronto Blue Jays gear up to face the New York Mets, there’s a palpable excitement in the air—especially for fans of high-scoring affairs. The Blue Jays have been known for their explosive offense, and with their lineup packed with power hitters, expect fireworks. They’ve consistently put runs on the board, averaging well over five a game recently. Meanwhile, the Mets have struggled with their pitching, particularly against teams with strong batting orders. Their starters have a tendency to give up the long ball, which could play right into Toronto’s hand. With their recent trend of games trending towards the over, and the model projecting nearly ten total runs, it’s clear that tonight's matchup has all the hallmarks of a slugfest. With a total set at 8.5, jumping on the over seems not just tempting, but almost inevitable. Buckle up for a high-scoring showdown!

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
3
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
29 Jun 26 Spread New York Mets 1.5 ✗ MISS
29 Jun 26 Spread New York Mets -1.5 ✓ HIT
29 Jun 26 Spread New York Mets -2.5 ✓ HIT

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for New York Mets vs Toronto Blue Jays in the MLB. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Monday 29 June 2026 at Rogers Centre. The model has generated 20 game picks and 2 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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