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Model picks & player props
New York Mets
VS
Toronto Blue Jays

New York Mets vs Toronto Blue Jays Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 11, 11:21PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Rogers Centre, Toronto
Indoor
Mon 29 Jun 2026, 11:07PM
20
Game markets graded
2
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: Over 9.5 (Total Runs)
The model graded 22 markets for New York Mets vs Toronto Blue Jays (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $234 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 53.1%, fair odds 1.88, book price +134, model edge +10.4%. Tip-off Mon 29 Jun 2026, 11:07PM at Rogers Centre.
This game is done — from the model’s graded calls on this game
New York Mets 1.5 · $100 returned $152

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 559 of 1,032 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 10
Under 5.5
Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $363
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Total Runs
Over
10.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

New York Mets

  • Devin Williams RPOut
  • Cionel Perez RPOut
  • Austin Warren RPOut
  • Juan Soto LFOut
  • Justin Hagenman RPOut
  • Mark Vientos 1BOut
  • Reed Garrett RPOut
  • Tylor Megill SPOut

Probable pitcher

Nolan McLean SP

Toronto Blue Jays

  • Kazuma Okamoto 3BDay-to-day
  • Trey Yesavage SPOut
  • Jameson Taillon SPOut
  • Luis Urias 2BOut
  • Spencer Arrighetti SPOut
  • Yimi Garcia RPOut
  • Patrick Corbin SPOut
  • Lenyn Sosa 2BOut
  • Joe Mantiply RPOut
  • Addison Barger RFOut
  • Jonatan Clase LFOut
  • Anthony Santander RFOut
  • Jose Berrios SPOut
  • Cody Ponce SPOut
  • Bowden Francis SPOut

Probable pitcher

Dylan Cease SP
Availability updated Aug 11, 11:15PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For New York Mets vs Toronto Blue Jays: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 23 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability23 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Sean Manaea Pitcher - Strikeouts 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineToronto Blue JaysNo line posted
5-0L5 record
L5 RF2.6L5 RA0.6Home L54-1vs New York Mets L53-2

Toronto Blue Jays moneyline form: last five 5-0, 2.6 runs/gm.

Run LineToronto Blue Jays run lineNo line posted
5-0L5 record
L5 RF2.6L5 RA0.6Home L54-1vs New York Mets L53-2

Toronto Blue Jays spread form: last five 5-0, 2.6 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Toronto Blue Jays vs New York MetsNo line posted

Toronto Blue Jays total runs form: last five 5-0, 2.6 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsToronto Blue Jays team totalNo line posted
2.0runs we expect
L5 RF2.6L5 RA0.6Home L54-1vs New York Mets L53-2

Toronto Blue Jays team total runs form: last five 5-0, 2.6 runs/gm.

New York Mets @ Toronto Blue Jays — what the model found

Our model graded 22 betting markets for New York Mets at Toronto Blue Jays — 20 on the game itself and 2 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
2
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 22 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 21 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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New York Mets vs Toronto Blue Jays — recent results

Toronto Blue Jays have won 3 of their last 5 games; New York Mets have won 4 of their last 5.

Toronto Blue Jays — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W2–1BOSHome
L6–7PHIAway
W7–5PHIAway
W5–4PHIAway
L2–3CHCAway
New York Mets — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W8–5ATLAway
W11–1PITAway
L0–9PITAway
W6–4PITAway
W13–6CLEAway

New York Mets vs Toronto Blue Jays — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Toronto Blue Jays are scoring 3.0 runs per game (2-3) while New York Mets are at 4.0 (1-4); Toronto Blue Jays pitchers are allowing 2.2 earned runs per game versus 3.6 for New York Mets.

3.0
Toronto Blue Jays runs/G
4.0
New York Mets runs/G
Last 5 gamesToronto Blue JaysNew York Mets
Runs / game3.04.0
Hits / game5.25.0
Home runs / game1.20.4
Walks drawn / game1.21.8
Batter K / game4.83.0
Earned runs allowed / game2.23.6
Pitching K / game2.85.2
Walks allowed / game2.62.0
L5 record2-31-4

New York Mets vs Toronto Blue Jays — recent meetings

These two have met 3 times recently: Toronto Blue Jays won 2, New York Mets won 1.

DateToronto Blue JaysNew York MetsWinner
Jul 193Toronto Blue Jays
Jun 3003New York Mets
Jun 2921Toronto Blue Jays

Who’s out or in doubt

23 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Toronto Blue Jays
PlayerStatus
Kazuma Okamoto 3BDAY-TO-DAY
Trey Yesavage SPOUT
Jameson Taillon SPOUT
Luis Urias 2BOUT
Spencer Arrighetti SPOUT
Yimi Garcia RPOUT
Patrick Corbin SPOUT
Lenyn Sosa 2BOUT
New York Mets
PlayerStatus
Devin Williams RPOUT
Cionel Perez RPOUT
Austin Warren RPOUT
Juan Soto LFOUT
Justin Hagenman RPOUT
Mark Vientos 1BOUT
Reed Garrett RPOUT
Tylor Megill SPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

New York Mets @ Toronto Blue Jays — model preview

Expert analysis and top MLB betting picks for Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Mets. Includes analysis on key players like NA. Discover MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Mets stats and odds.

Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Mets : Over 8.5 Total Runs (-109)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Blue Jays welcome the Mets to Rogers Centre, we’re looking at a scenario ripe for runs. Toronto’s offense has been explosive, averaging over five runs per game lately, thanks to their deep lineup featuring powerful hitters like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette. Meanwhile, the Mets have shown flashes of offensive prowess, particularly against right-handers, making them a serious threat in this matchup. On the mound, both teams have sketched a shaky narrative recently. The Blue Jays’ starter has struggled with command, while the Mets' pitcher has been prone to giving up big innings. With the weather favoring a warm, humid evening—conditions that typically boost offensive production—expect fireworks. The model projects a total of nearly ten runs, aligning with the trend of high-scoring games involving both squads. This game has the makings of a slugfest, making the 'Over 8.5' a compelling play.

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Cashed picks for this matchup

From the public log
DateMarketPickResult
29 Jun 26 Spread New York Mets +1.5 ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for New York Mets vs Toronto Blue Jays in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Mets vs Jays, or as Jays vs Mets. The most recent game between them was Monday 29 June 2026 at Rogers Centre. The model has generated 20 game picks and 2 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Last time they played

Final scores · last 3 meetings
Toronto Blue Jays 2–1 across the last 3 meetings
DateGameScoreWinner
1 Jul 2026New York Mets @ Toronto Blue Jays9–3Toronto Blue Jays
30 Jun 2026New York Mets @ Toronto Blue Jays0–3New York Mets
29 Jun 2026New York Mets @ Toronto Blue Jays2–1Toronto Blue Jays
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