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Model picks & player props
Philadelphia Phillies
VS
Seattle Mariners

Philadelphia Phillies vs Seattle Mariners Picks & Predictions

Our model graded 70 markets for Philadelphia Phillies vs Seattle Mariners and backs Over 4.5 hardest, a strong call, and $100 on it returns about $252.

MLB
T-Mobile Park, Seattle
Indoor
Wed 26 Aug 2026, 8:11PM
20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Over 4.5 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings +152

The model graded 70 markets for Philadelphia Phillies vs Seattle Mariners (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $252 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Wed 26 Aug 2026, 8:11PM at T-Mobile Park.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win61.2%
The price says37.3%
Best price+152
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 4.5 High61% chance +152
Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Members only Lean52% chance Members
Total Runs Members only Long-shot36% chance Members
Spread - 1st 5 Innings Members only Lean55% chance Members
Spread Members only Long-shot6% chance Members
Pitcher - Walks × 3 props Highup to 85% Members
Batter - Walks × 10 props Highup to 98% Members
Batter - Runs Scored × 8 props Highup to 80% Members
Batter - Singles × 7 props Highup to 78% Members
Batter - Hits × 7 props Highup to 75% Members
Batter - RBIs × 3 props Highup to 84% Members
Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs × 8 props Highup to 67% Members
Batter - Total Bases × 3 props Highup to 68% Members
Pitcher - Earned Runs × 1 prop Leanup to 57% Members
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

Philadelphia Phillies and Seattle Mariners last met on Wed 26 Aug 2026: Seattle Mariners won 4-1. Their next game gets a fresh preview here the moment it is priced. Today's board: every MLB game priced right now.

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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings
Over
9.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Seattle MarinersSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Philadelphia Phillies

  • Luis Arraez 2BDay-to-day
  • Jonathan Bowlan RPDay-to-day
  • Caleb Kilian RPOut
  • Felix Reyes LFOut
  • Brad Keller RPOut
  • Johan Rojas CFOut
  • Adolis Garcia RFOut

Seattle Mariners

  • Josh Naylor 1BOut
  • Cal Raleigh COut
  • Michael Toglia 1BOut
  • Kade Anderson SPDay-to-day
  • Andres Munoz RPOut
  • Brock Rodden SSOut
  • Nick Davila RPOut
  • Matt Brash RPOut
  • Brendan Donovan 3BOut
  • Brennen Davis CFOut
  • Colt Emerson SSOut
  • Emerson Hancock SPOut
  • Luke Raley RFOut
  • Cole Wilcox RPOut
  • Will Wilson 3BOut
  • Logan Evans SPOut
Availability updated Oct 5, 6:37PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Philadelphia Phillies vs Seattle Mariners: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 23 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability23 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Aaron Nola PHI Pitcher - Walks
Weston Wilson SEA Batter - Walks
Josh Naylor CLE Batter - Walks
George Kirby SEA Pitcher - Walks
Cole Young SEA Batter - Walks

+ 50 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineSeattle MarinersNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF3.4L5 RA5.2Home L52-3vs Philadelphia Phillies L51-4

Seattle Mariners moneyline form: last five 2-3, 3.4 runs/gm.

Run LineSeattle Mariners run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF3.4L5 RA5.2Home L52-3vs Philadelphia Phillies L51-4

Seattle Mariners spread form: last five 2-3, 3.4 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Seattle Mariners vs Philadelphia PhilliesNo line posted

Seattle Mariners total runs form: last five 2-3, 3.4 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsSeattle Mariners team totalNo line posted
4.4runs we expect
L5 RF3.4L5 RA5.2Home L52-3vs Philadelphia Phillies L51-4

Seattle Mariners team total runs form: last five 2-3, 3.4 runs/gm.

Philadelphia Phillies @ Seattle Mariners — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for Philadelphia Phillies at Seattle Mariners — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Philadelphia Phillies vs Seattle Mariners — recent results

Seattle Mariners have won 3 of their last 5 games; Philadelphia Phillies have won 2 of their last 5.

Seattle Mariners — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W8–4LAAHome
W7–3LAAHome
L5–7LAAHome
L4–6LAAHome
W6–5HOUHome
Philadelphia Phillies — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L2–6ATLAway
W4–3ATLAway
L3–5ATLAway
W7–3TBHome
L1–12TBHome

Philadelphia Phillies vs Seattle Mariners — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Seattle Mariners are scoring 2.8 runs per game (3-2) while Philadelphia Phillies are at 2.6 (3-2); Seattle Mariners pitchers are allowing 2.2 earned runs per game versus 1.4 for Philadelphia Phillies.

2.8
Seattle Mariners runs/G
2.6
Philadelphia Phillies runs/G
Last 5 gamesSeattle MarinersPhiladelphia Phillies
Runs / game2.82.6
Hits / game3.44.6
Home runs / game0.60.0
Walks drawn / game1.01.2
Batter K / game2.22.8
Earned runs allowed / game2.21.4
Pitching K / game1.43.8
Walks allowed / game0.60.8
L5 record3-23-2

Philadelphia Phillies vs Seattle Mariners — recent meetings

These two have met 3 times recently: Seattle Mariners won 2, Philadelphia Phillies won 1.

DateSeattle MarinersPhiladelphia PhilliesWinner
Aug 2641Seattle Mariners
Aug 2606Philadelphia Phillies
Aug 2592Seattle Mariners

Who’s out or in doubt

23 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Seattle Mariners
PlayerStatus
Josh Naylor 1BOUT
Cal Raleigh COUT
Michael Toglia 1BOUT
Kade Anderson SPDAY-TO-DAY
Andres Munoz RPOUT
Brock Rodden SSOUT
Nick Davila RPOUT
Matt Brash RPOUT
Philadelphia Phillies
PlayerStatus
Luis Arraez 2BDAY-TO-DAY
Jonathan Bowlan RPDAY-TO-DAY
Caleb Kilian RPOUT
Felix Reyes LFOUT
Brad Keller RPOUT
Johan Rojas CFOUT
Adolis Garcia RFOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Philadelphia Phillies @ Seattle Mariners — model preview

Our Philadelphia Phillies at Seattle Mariners prediction for August 27, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On August 27, 2026 our model has run Philadelphia Phillies at Seattle Mariners and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Alec Bohm Under 0.5 RBIs (-345), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Philadelphia Phillies vs Seattle Mariners in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Phillies vs Mariners, or as Mariners vs Phillies. The most recent game between them was Wednesday 26 August 2026 at T-Mobile Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Seattle Mariners head-to-head record

Final scores · 12 meetings on record
Even at 6–6 across the last 12 meetings · these games average 9.8 runs (meetings on record since 2023)

Last meeting: Wed 26 Aug 2026, Philadelphia Phillies at Seattle Mariners: the Mariners won 4-1.

DateGameScoreWinner
26 Aug 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Seattle Mariners4–1Seattle Mariners
25 Aug 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Seattle Mariners9–2Seattle Mariners
24 Aug 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Seattle Mariners9–2Seattle Mariners
20 Aug 2025Seattle Mariners @ Philadelphia Phillies11–2Philadelphia Phillies
19 Aug 2025Seattle Mariners @ Philadelphia Phillies6–4Philadelphia Phillies
18 Aug 2025Seattle Mariners @ Philadelphia Phillies12–7Philadelphia Phillies
4 Aug 2024Philadelphia Phillies @ Seattle Mariners0–6Philadelphia Phillies
3 Aug 2024Philadelphia Phillies @ Seattle Mariners6–5Seattle Mariners
2 Aug 2024Philadelphia Phillies @ Seattle Mariners10–2Seattle Mariners
27 Apr 2023Seattle Mariners @ Philadelphia Phillies1–0Philadelphia Phillies

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 12 meetings on file.

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