Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Aaron Nola is Under 2.5 on Pitcher - Earned Runs.
On the Pitcher - Earned Runs market the model assigns a model win probability of 78%, versus the book's implied 55%, for a model edge of +23.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 8:25PM UTC
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Earned Runs
Under 2.5
-120 (1.83) · $100→$183
+23.1% Edge
Toronto Blue Jays
@
Philadelphia Phillies
Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania · Outdoor
Sun 9 Aug, 5:35PM
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb total-runs unders: 546 of 996 right
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
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Implied Probability
54.6%
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Pitcher - Earned Runs | 77.7% | — | 54.6% | 1.29 | +23.1% |
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| Window | Hit Rate |
|---|
| Last 3 games | 3/3 |
| Last 5 games | 4/5 |
| Last 10 games | 8/10 |
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Aaron Nola (PHI) Under 2.5 Earned Runs (-120)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Philadelphia Phillies play Toronto Blue Jays in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Aaron Nola (PHI) Under 2.5 Earned Runs (-120). That is a Earned Runs bet. It was priced at -120 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.33 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Betting angles
Markets & formPitcher - Hits AllowedSeason & recent formNo line posted O 0.5100%
O 1.5100%
O 2.5100%
O 3.590%
O 4.590%
O 5.580%
Aaron Nola MLB hits allowed: cleared over 0.5 in 100% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.
Pitcher - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted Aaron Nola MLB walks: cleared over 0.5 in 70% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.
Pitcher - Earned RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted 90%hit L10
4avg earned runs · L5
Streak7L2075%
Aaron Nola MLB earned runs: cleared over 1.5 in 90% of the last 10 games; averaging 4 earned runs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.
Pitcher - OutsSeason & recent formNo line posted 100%hit L10
16.8avg outs · L5
Streak74L20100%
Aaron Nola MLB outs: cleared over 8.5 in 100% of the last 10 games; averaging 16.8 outs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.
Aaron Nola (PHI) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Aaron Nola is Under 2.5 on Pitcher - Earned Runs. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +23.1% on this pick. Their next game is Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies on Sunday 9 August at Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.
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