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The latest Bet Better model pick for Aaron Nola is Under 5.5 on Pitcher - Strikeouts.
On Pitcher - Strikeouts, our numbers say this bet wins about 59 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 59%, the price says 59%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.

Recent form on the board

Over 0.50 Hlanded 10 of the last 10
Over 1.50 Hlanded 10 of the last 10
Over 2.50 Hlanded 10 of the last 10

Graded from real results — only lines with recent form are shown.

Model updated Sep 21, 6:20PM UTC
MLB

Aaron Nola

PHI

Value call

Aaron Nola has one live pick today: Pitcher - Strikeouts Under 5.5 that pays $170 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Strikeouts Under 5.5 -143 (1.70) · $100→$170
Value call
Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets
Citi Field, Queens (NYC), New York · Outdoor
Thu 17 Sep, 11:15PM
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb pitcher strikeouts overs: 181 of 382 right
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
59 in 100
Predicted
4.9 Pitcher - Strikeouts
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 59.4% · before adjusting for past results 63.4% · the book's price implies 58.8% · gap +0.6%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Strikeouts63.4%59.4%58.8%1.72+4.6%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games0/5
Last 10 games4/10

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AI Analysis

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New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies: Aaron Nola Under 5.5 Pitcher - Strikeouts (-143)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

The odds are offering a solid chance to bet on Aaron Nola getting under 5.5 strikeouts. While he's a good pitcher, he's been facing a New York Mets team that has been hitting decently against lefties this season. They've pulled off 6 wins in their last 10 games and have shown they can put the bat on the ball well, especially at home. One risk is that Nola has been striking out players at a rate near his usual lately. However, with the Mets hitting well and the wind blowing out toward the outfield, it's likely they'll make contact more often than usual. That could mean fewer strikeouts for Nola, making this bet look promising.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 7 of last 10(70%)

Recent form (last 5 games)

Aaron Nola is averaging 6.8 hits, 1.2 home runs and 0.0 RBIs per game over his last 5 games.

6.8
Hits
1.2
HR
0.0
RBI
4.2
Runs
2.2
Walks
6.2
Ks

Hit-rate ladder: SO

Aaron Nola has gone over 2.5 SO in 60% of his last 10 games, and the hit rate drops as the line rises.

o2.560%
o3.540%
o4.520%
o5.510%
o6.50%
o7.50%
o8.50%
o9.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Aaron Nola is averaging 6.8 hits per game over his last 5 and 6.0 in away games, including his recent form against LAD.

6.8
Hits · Overall
6.0
Hits · Away
6.6
Hits · vs LAD
1.2
HR · Overall
1.2
HR · Away
1.2
HR · vs LAD
Quick answers:How many strikeouts does Aaron Nola average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
17 Sep 26 Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets Pitcher - Strikeouts 5.5 Under -143 ✓ HIT
17 Sep 26 Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets Pitcher - Walks 1.5 Under +116 ✗ MISS
17 Sep 26 Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets Pitcher - Earned Runs 2.5 Under -108 ✓ HIT
11 Sep 26 Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves Pitcher - Walks — — — Pending
01 Sep 26 Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks Pitcher - Earned Runs — — — Pending
01 Sep 26 Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks Pitcher - Hits Allowed — — — Pending

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About This Player

Aaron Nola (PHI) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Aaron Nola is Under 5.5 on Pitcher - Strikeouts. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.6% on this pick. Their next game is Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets on Thursday 17 September at Citi Field, Queens (NYC). Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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