Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for George Kirby is Under 2.5 on Pitcher - Earned Runs.
On Pitcher - Earned Runs, our numbers say this bet wins about 83 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 83%, implied 57%, edge +25.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Aug 20, 11:51AM UTC
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Earned Runs
Under 2.5
-135 (1.74) · $100→$174
+25.3% Edge
Seattle Mariners
@
Milwaukee Brewers
American Family Field, Milwaukee, Wisconsin · Indoor
Thu 20 Aug, 6:10PM
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb total-runs unders: 834 of 1,649 rightToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
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How often this wins
83 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: model probability 82.8% · the book's price implies 57.5% · gap +25.3%.
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Pitcher - Earned Runs | 82.8% | — | 57.5% | 1.21 | +25.3% |
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| Window | Hit Rate |
|---|
| Last 3 games | 3/3 |
| Last 5 games | 4/5 |
| Last 10 games | 4/5 |
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George Kirby (SEA) Under 2.5 Earned Runs (-135)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Milwaukee Brewers play Seattle Mariners in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is George Kirby (SEA) Under 2.5 Earned Runs (-135). That is a Earned Runs bet. It was priced at -135 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $17.41 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Hit-rate ladder: SO
George Kirby has gone over 2.5 SO in 20% of his last 10 games, and the hit rate drops as the line rises.
o2.520%
o3.50%
o4.50%
o5.50%
o6.50%
o7.50%
o8.50%
George Kirby (SEA) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for George Kirby is Under 2.5 on Pitcher - Earned Runs. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +25.3% on this pick. Their next game is Seattle Mariners vs Milwaukee Brewers on Thursday 20 August at American Family Field, Milwaukee. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.
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