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The latest Bet Better model pick for George Kirby is Under 1.5 on Pitcher - Walks.
On the Pitcher - Walks market the model assigns a model win probability of 82%, versus the book's implied 78%, for a model edge of +4.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 28, 6:52PM UTC
MLB

George Kirby

SEA

+4.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Walks Under 1.5 -345 (1.29)
+4.8% Edge
Cincinnati Reds @ Seattle Mariners
T-Mobile Park, Seattle, Washington · Indoor
Wed 22 Jul, 1:40AM
Confirmed probable starter
Probable SP vs SEA @ TEX
updated Jul 27, 6:35PM UTC · 1d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
82.4%
Implied Probability
77.5%
Model Edge
+4.8%
Predicted Value

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Walks82.4%77.5%1.21+4.8%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/0
Last 5 games0/0
Last 10 games0/0

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AI Analysis

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George Kirby (SEA) Under 1.5 Walks Allowed (-345)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Seattle Mariners host the Cincinnati Reds, all eyes will be on George Kirby, whose control has been nothing short of impressive. With a walk rate well below league average, Kirby’s ability to locate his fastball and changeup has kept hitters off-balance, effectively minimizing free passes. In his last few outings, he’s demonstrated a remarkable knack for avoiding walks, averaging less than one walk per game. The Reds, while having a powerful lineup, have shown vulnerability against pitchers who can command the zone. Kirby’s recent trend of keeping opposing hitters off base aligns perfectly with this matchup. Given that the Mariners are also geared up for a win in front of their home crowd, expect Kirby to keep the Reds' threats in check. Thus, betting on him to stay under 1.5 walks feels like a savvy play, considering he’s consistently shown he can navigate lineups without giving up free passes.

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Pick History & Track Record

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
08 Jul 26 Seattle Mariners @ Miami Marlins Pitcher - Strikeouts 5.5 Under -154 ✗ MISS

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About This Player

George Kirby (SEA) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for George Kirby is Under 1.5 on Pitcher - Walks. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.8% on this pick. Their next game is Cincinnati Reds vs Seattle Mariners on Wednesday 22 July at T-Mobile Park, Seattle. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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