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MLB
Nationals Park, Washington
Outdoor
Sat 4 Jul 2026, 11:05 AM ET
Pittsburgh Pirates
VS
Washington Nationals

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals Prediction & Picks

Our model graded 31 markets for Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals and backs Washington Nationals 1 hardest, a strong call, and $100 on it returns about $209.

20
Game markets graded
11
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first Free
Washington Nationals
with a 1-run head start
Washington Nationals 1 Spread
You bet$10 If it wins$20.90Best price+109
Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win70.5%
The price says47.8%

The model graded 31 markets for Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $209 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sat 4 Jul 2026, 11:05 AM ET at Nationals Park.

This game's bets

The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Spread Washington Nationals 1 High70% chance +109
Spread Members only Lean48% chance Members
Moneyline Members only High64% chance Members
Pitcher - Strikeouts × 1 prop Highup to 84% Members
Batter - Total Bases × 5 props Highup to 77% Members
Batter - Hits × 5 props Highup to 88% Members
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
Every MLB game on today's board →

Pittsburgh Pirates and Washington Nationals last met on Sat 4 Jul 2026: Pittsburgh Pirates won 11-5. Their next game gets a fresh preview here the moment it is priced. Today's board: every MLB game priced right now.

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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Spread
Washington Nationals
+1
+109
+ 19 more markets
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All 20 game markets and 11 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 75,276+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Washington NationalsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Washington NationalsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Washington NationalsMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Washington NationalsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Washington NationalsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Washington NationalsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Washington NationalsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Washington NationalsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Washington NationalsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Washington NationalsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Washington NationalsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Washington NationalsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Washington NationalsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Washington NationalsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Washington NationalsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Washington NationalsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Washington NationalsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Washington NationalsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Endy Rodriguez COut

Washington Nationals

  • Drew Millas COut
Availability updated Nov 3, 5:18AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and watch the availability of Endy Rodriguez and Drew Millas.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability2 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Zack Littell TBR Pitcher - Strikeouts
Brandon Lowe TBR Batter - Total Bases
Brandon Lowe TBR Batter - Hits
Bryan Reynolds PIT Batter - Total Bases
Bryan Reynolds PIT Batter - Hits

+ 11 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineWashington NationalsNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF3.4L5 RA5.0Home L53-2vs Pittsburgh Pirates L51-4

Washington Nationals moneyline form: last five 3-2, 3.4 runs/gm.

Run LineWashington Nationals run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF3.4L5 RA5.0Home L53-2vs Pittsburgh Pirates L51-4

Washington Nationals spread form: last five 3-2, 3.4 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Washington Nationals vs Pittsburgh PiratesNo line posted

Washington Nationals total runs form: last five 3-2, 3.4 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsWashington Nationals team totalNo line posted
3.4runs we expect
L5 RF3.4L5 RA5.0Home L53-2vs Pittsburgh Pirates L51-4

Washington Nationals team total runs form: last five 3-2, 3.4 runs/gm.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Washington Nationals — what the model found

Our model graded 31 betting markets for Pittsburgh Pirates at Washington Nationals — 20 on the game itself and 11 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
11
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 31 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

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Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals — recent results

Washington Nationals have won 4 of their last 5 games; Pittsburgh Pirates have won 2 of their last 5.

Washington Nationals — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W6–4NYMHome
L1–7NYMHome
W7–6NYMHome
W4–2DETAway
W3–1DETAway
Pittsburgh Pirates — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W4–2DETAway
L3–4DETAway
L7–8DETAway
W2–1STLHome
L1–5STLHome

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals — recent meetings

These two have met 7 times recently: Washington Nationals won 3, Pittsburgh Pirates won 4.

DateWashington NationalsPittsburgh PiratesWinner
Jul 5511Pittsburgh Pirates
Jul 417Pittsburgh Pirates
Jul 395Washington Nationals
Apr 1687Washington Nationals
Apr 1502Pittsburgh Pirates
Apr 1454Washington Nationals
Apr 13516Pittsburgh Pirates

Who’s out or in doubt

2 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Washington Nationals
PlayerStatus
Drew Millas COUT
Pittsburgh Pirates
PlayerStatus
Endy Rodriguez COUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Washington Nationals — model preview

Deep dive into Washington Nationals vs Pittsburgh Pirates MLB game. Find value betting opportunities. Includes analysis on key players like Nick Gonzales. Check out MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Washington Nationals vs Pittsburgh Pirates stats and odds.

Nick Gonzales (NA) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-164)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As we gear up for this matchup between the Nationals and Pirates, it’s worth looking closely at Nick Gonzales's recent performance. The young infielder has shown flashes of brilliance, but he's been inconsistent at the plate, particularly against right-handed pitching. With the Nationals expected to start a righty, Gonzales might struggle to find his rhythm. Digging into his recent stats, he’s been hitting just over .230 with a low slugging percentage, which makes the 'Under 1.5 total bases' line quite appealing. Add to that the Pirates' recent trend of underwhelming offensive output—especially in away games—and it's clear that Gonzales will face a tough challenge. With the odds hinting at a significant drop-off in his production, betting on him to fall short of that total bases mark feels like a smart play in this matchup. Keep an eye on the game; it could be a long afternoon for Gonzales at the plate.

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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Pirates vs Nationals, or as Nationals vs Pirates. The most recent game between them was Saturday 4 July 2026 at Nationals Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 11 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals: game facts

Past meetings and recent results

Where they last met

  • 5 Jul 2026Pittsburgh Pirates beat Washington Nationals 11-5 on the road
  • 4 Jul 2026Pittsburgh Pirates beat Washington Nationals 7-1 on the road
  • 3 Jul 2026Washington Nationals beat Pittsburgh Pirates 9-5 at home

Pittsburgh Pirates: last 5 results

  1. 27 Sep 2026Wonat Detroit Tigers 4-2
  2. 26 Sep 2026Lostat Detroit Tigers 3-4
  3. 25 Sep 2026Lostat Detroit Tigers 7-8
  4. 24 Sep 2026Wonvs St. Louis Cardinals 2-1
  5. 23 Sep 2026Lostvs St. Louis Cardinals 1-5

Washington Nationals: last 5 results

  1. 27 Sep 2026Wonvs New York Mets 6-4
  2. 26 Sep 2026Lostvs New York Mets 1-7
  3. 25 Sep 2026Wonvs New York Mets 7-6
  4. 23 Sep 2026Wonat Detroit Tigers 4-2
  5. 22 Sep 2026Wonat Detroit Tigers 3-1

Quick answers

Who won the last Washington Nationals vs Pittsburgh Pirates game? Pittsburgh Pirates won their last meeting 11-5 on 5 July 2026.

How have Pittsburgh Pirates and Washington Nationals done lately? Pittsburgh Pirates won 2 and lost 3 of the last 5 results we hold. Washington Nationals won 4 and lost 1 of the last 5 results we hold.

From the final scores we hold. Newest game first.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals: the season so far

From every final score this season

Pittsburgh Pirates are 82-80 this season and Washington Nationals are 77-85. Washington Nationals are 39-42 at home. Pittsburgh Pirates are 38-43 on the road. Washington Nationals score 5.1 runs a game and let in 5.0. Pittsburgh Pirates score 4.7 and let in 4.6. Washington Nationals games have averaged 10.1 runs in total; Pittsburgh Pirates games have averaged 9.3.

SeasonPittsburgh PiratesWashington Nationals
Won-lost82-8077-85
At home44-3739-42
On the road38-4338-43
Last 107-36-4
Runs scored a game4.75.1
Runs let in a game4.65.0
Runs scored at home5.15.3
Runs scored away4.44.8
Against winning sides33-3931-47
Current runWon 1Won 1
Biggest win13-1 at Miami Marlins23-4 at Athletics
Heaviest loss11-0 vs Chicago Cubs15-1 at Athletics

Teams they have both played

  • Against New York Mets: Washington Nationals won 6-4 at home; Pittsburgh Pirates lost 1-11 at home.
  • Against Detroit Tigers: Washington Nationals won 4-2 on the road; Pittsburgh Pirates won 4-2 on the road.
  • Against St. Louis Cardinals: Washington Nationals lost 3-5 on the road; Pittsburgh Pirates won 2-1 at home.

Quick answers

How are Washington Nationals doing this season? Washington Nationals are 77-85 this season: 39-42 at home and 38-43 on the road.

How many runs do Pittsburgh Pirates score a game? Pittsburgh Pirates score 4.7 runs a game this season and let in 4.6, across 162 games.

Wins and losses come from the final score, overtime included. “Against winning sides” counts games against teams that have won more than half their games this season.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals head-to-head record

Final scores · 26 meetings on record
Pittsburgh Pirates 16–10 across the last 26 meetings · these games average 9.3 runs (meetings on record since 2023)

Last meeting: Sun 5 Jul 2026, Pittsburgh Pirates at Washington Nationals: the Pirates won 11-5.

DateGameScoreWinner
5 Jul 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ Washington Nationals5–11Pittsburgh Pirates
4 Jul 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ Washington Nationals1–7Pittsburgh Pirates
3 Jul 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ Washington Nationals9–5Washington Nationals
16 Apr 2026Washington Nationals @ Pittsburgh Pirates7–8Washington Nationals
15 Apr 2026Washington Nationals @ Pittsburgh Pirates2–0Pittsburgh Pirates
14 Apr 2026Washington Nationals @ Pittsburgh Pirates4–5Washington Nationals
13 Apr 2026Washington Nationals @ Pittsburgh Pirates16–5Pittsburgh Pirates
14 Sep 2025Pittsburgh Pirates @ Washington Nationals4–3Washington Nationals
13 Sep 2025Pittsburgh Pirates @ Washington Nationals1–5Pittsburgh Pirates
12 Sep 2025Pittsburgh Pirates @ Washington Nationals6–5Washington Nationals

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 26 meetings on file.

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