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The latest Bet Better model pick for Zack Littell is Under 3.5 on Pitcher - Strikeouts.
On the Pitcher - Strikeouts market the model assigns a model win probability of 84%, versus the book's implied 57%, for a model edge of +27.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:28PM UTC
MLB

Zack Littell

TBR

+27.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Strikeouts Under 3.5 -132 (1.76)
+27.0% Edge
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Washington Nationals
Nationals Park, Washington, District of Columbia · Outdoor
Sat 4 Jul, 3:05PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
83.9%
Implied Probability
56.8%
Model Edge
+27.0%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Strikeouts83.9%—56.8%1.19+27.0%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games1/5
Last 10 games4/10

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AI Analysis

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Zack Littell (TBR) Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-132)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As the Nationals host the Pirates on this July 4th, all eyes will be on Zack Littell, who’s been a bit of an enigma on the mound lately. With the line set at 3.5 strikeouts, the under seems appealing. Littell has struggled to find his rhythm, averaging just around two strikeouts per game in his recent outings. Pittsburgh's lineup has been surprisingly disciplined, often making contact and limiting strikeout opportunities. The Pirates have the lowest strikeout rate in the league, and they seem to thrive against pitchers like Littell, who can be prone to allowing hits rather than missing bats. As the Nationals look to solidify their home advantage, expect Littell to pitch to contact more than rack up the punchouts. With a model predicting just over two strikeouts, taking the under might just be the smart play as Washington looks to celebrate Independence Day on a winning note.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Pitcher - StrikeoutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
80%hit L10
L2090%
O 2.580%
O 3.570%
O 4.550%
O 5.530%

Zack Littell MLB strikeouts: cleared over 2.5 in 80% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Hits AllowedSeason & recent formNo line posted
90%hit L10
Streak3L2095%
O 2.590%
O 3.570%

Zack Littell MLB hits allowed: cleared over 2.5 in 90% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Earned RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted
50%hit L10
3.4avg earned runs · L5

Zack Littell MLB earned runs: cleared over 2.5 in 50% of the last 10 games; averaging 3.4 earned runs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - OutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
60%hit L10
17.4avg outs · L5
Streak2

Zack Littell MLB outs: cleared over 17.5 in 60% of the last 10 games; averaging 17.4 outs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
04 Jul 26 Pittsburgh Pirates @ Washington Nationals Pitcher - Strikeouts 3.5 Under -132 ✓ HIT
23 Jun 26 Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals Pitcher - Strikeouts 3.5 Under -149 ✗ MISS

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About This Player

Zack Littell (TBR) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Zack Littell is Under 3.5 on Pitcher - Strikeouts. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +27.0% on this pick. Their next game is Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals on Saturday 4 July at Nationals Park, Washington. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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