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Model picks & player props
Miami Marlins
VS
Philadelphia Phillies

Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 11:17AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia
Outdoor
Wed 17 Jun 2026, 5:05PM
20
Game Picks
0
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Philadelphia Phillies (Moneyline)
For Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies (MLB), model win probability 88.8%, fair odds 1.13, book price -118, model edge +34.7%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Wed 17 Jun 2026, 5:05PM at Citizens Bank Park.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Moneyline
Philadelphia Phillies
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Philadelphia PhilliesMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Miami Marlins

  • Max Meyer SPOut
  • Otto Lopez SSDay-to-day
  • Ronny Henriquez RPOut
  • Anthony Bender RPOut
  • William Kempner RPOut
  • Owen Caissie RFOut
  • John King RPOut
  • Josh Ekness RPOut
  • Andrew Nardi RPOut
  • Robby Snelling SPOut
  • Adam Mazur SPOut

Probable pitcher

Janson Junk SP

Philadelphia Phillies

  • Brad Keller RPOut
  • Tanner Banks RPOut
  • Lou Trivino RPOut
  • Johan Rojas CFOut
  • Adolis Garcia RFOut

Probable pitcher

Cristopher Sanchez SP
Availability updated Jul 21, 12:10AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 16 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability16 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylinePhiladelphia PhilliesNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF4.6L5 RA2.0Home L52-3vs Miami Marlins L52-3Win rec0-11

Philadelphia Phillies moneyline form: last five 3-2, 4.6 runs/gm.

Run LinePhiladelphia Phillies run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF4.6L5 RA2.0Home L52-3vs Miami Marlins L52-3ATS2-14

Philadelphia Phillies spread form: last five 3-2, 4.6 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami MarlinsNo line posted

Philadelphia Phillies total runs form: last five 3-2, 4.6 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsPhiladelphia Phillies team totalNo line posted
3.2implied team total
L5 RF4.6L5 RA2.0Home L52-3vs Miami Marlins L52-3

Philadelphia Phillies team total runs form: last five 3-2, 4.6 runs/gm.

Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Philadelphia Phillies are scoring 4.6 runs per game (3-2) while Miami Marlins are at 2.8 (2-3); Philadelphia Phillies pitchers are allowing 2.0 earned runs per game versus 3.4 for Miami Marlins.

4.6
Philadelphia Phillies runs/G
2.8
Miami Marlins runs/G
Last 5 gamesPhiladelphia PhilliesMiami Marlins
Runs / game4.62.8
Hits / game4.84.2
Home runs / game1.40.6
Walks drawn / game2.20.6
Batter K / game5.83.0
Earned runs allowed / game2.03.4
Pitching K / game4.63.4
Walks allowed / game1.81.8
L5 record3-22-3

Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies — model preview

<p>Expert analysis and top MLB betting picks for Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins. Includes analysis on key players like NA. Discover MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins stats and odds.</p>

Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins : Over 7 Total Runs (-294)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins : Over 6.5 Total Runs (-345)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins : Over 5.5 Total Runs (-526)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins : Over 6 Total Runs (-476)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
3
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
17 Jun 26 Moneyline Philadelphia Phillies ✗ MISS
17 Jun 26 Spread Philadelphia Phillies 3 ✗ MISS
17 Jun 26 Spread Philadelphia Phillies 6.5 ✗ MISS

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies in the MLB. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Wednesday 17 June 2026 at Citizens Bank Park. The model has generated 20 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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