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Model picks & player props
Miami Marlins
VS
Philadelphia Phillies

Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 30, 6:42PM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia
Outdoor
Wed 19 Aug 2026, 10:05PM
20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
67.3%
Historical Hit Rate
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline -123

The model graded 70 markets for Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $181 if it lands. Picks on this matchup have hit 67.3% across 49 settled results. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Wed 19 Aug 2026, 10:05PM at Citizens Bank Park.

Our confidenceLean
Chance to win55.6%
The price says55.3%
Best price-123
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Moneyline Philadelphia Phillies Lean56% chance -123
Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings Lean52% chance
Spread Long-shot5% chance
Spread Long-shot8% chance
Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs × 9 props Highup to 86%
Batter - Singles × 7 props Highup to 87%
Pitcher - Hits Allowed × 1 prop Highup to 75%
Pitcher - Walks × 2 props Highup to 81%
Pitcher - Earned Runs × 1 prop Highup to 80%
Pitcher - Strikeouts × 1 prop Highup to 86%
Batter - Total Bases × 8 props Highup to 92%
Batter - Walks × 11 props Highup to 100%
Batter - Hits × 4 props Highup to 95%
Batter - Runs Scored × 3 props Highup to 81%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
This game is done — the model’s call CASHED
Philadelphia Phillies · $100 returned $177

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 935 of 1,976 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 29
Under 11.5
Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $130
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Moneyline
Philadelphia Phillies
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Philadelphia PhilliesMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesMoneyline - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Miami Marlins

  • Pete Fairbanks RPOut
  • Andrew Nardi RPOut
  • Max Meyer SPOut
  • Anthony Bender RPOut
  • William Kempner RPOut
  • Robby Snelling SPOut
  • Adam Mazur SPOut
  • Ronny Henriquez RPOut

Probable pitcher

Sandy Alcantara SP

Philadelphia Phillies

  • Rafael Marchan COut
  • Tanner Banks RPOut
  • Felix Reyes LFOut
  • Caleb Kilian RPOut
  • Brad Keller RPOut
  • Johan Rojas CFOut
  • Adolis Garcia RFOut

Probable pitcher

Cristopher Sanchez SP
Availability updated Aug 30, 6:42AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 15 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability15 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Xavier Edwards MIA Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs
Javier Sanoja Batter - Singles
J.T. Realmuto PHI Batter - Singles
Aaron Nola PHI Pitcher - Hits Allowed
Sandy Alcantara MIA Pitcher - Walks

+ 50 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylinePhiladelphia PhilliesNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF1.4L5 RA1.2Home L52-3vs Miami Marlins L51-4

Philadelphia Phillies moneyline form: last five 2-3, 1.4 runs/gm.

Run LinePhiladelphia Phillies run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF1.4L5 RA1.2Home L52-3vs Miami Marlins L51-4

Philadelphia Phillies spread form: last five 2-3, 1.4 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami MarlinsNo line posted

Philadelphia Phillies total runs form: last five 2-3, 1.4 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsPhiladelphia Phillies team totalNo line posted
1.0runs we expect
L5 RF1.4L5 RA1.2Home L52-3vs Miami Marlins L51-4

Philadelphia Phillies team total runs form: last five 2-3, 1.4 runs/gm.

Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies — recent results

Philadelphia Phillies have won 3 of their last 5 games; Miami Marlins have won 1 of their last 5.

Philadelphia Phillies — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W5–3LAAAway
L1–4SEAAway
W6–0SEAAway
L2–9SEAAway
W6–4STLHome
Miami Marlins — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L4–5WSHAway
L2–9WSHAway
W4–0BOSHome
L3–7BOSHome
L2–4BOSHome

Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Philadelphia Phillies are scoring 0.8 runs per game (2-3) while Miami Marlins are at 0.6 (0-5); Philadelphia Phillies pitchers are allowing 1.0 earned runs per game versus 1.0 for Miami Marlins.

0.8
Philadelphia Phillies runs/G
0.6
Miami Marlins runs/G
Last 5 gamesPhiladelphia PhilliesMiami Marlins
Runs / game0.80.6
Hits / game3.02.8
Home runs / game0.00.6
Walks drawn / game0.60.4
Batter K / game1.81.6
Earned runs allowed / game1.01.0
Pitching K / game2.21.6
Walks allowed / game0.41.4
L5 record2-30-5

Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies — recent meetings

These two have met 10 times recently: Philadelphia Phillies won 6, Miami Marlins won 4.

DatePhiladelphia PhilliesMiami MarlinsWinner
Aug 1941Philadelphia Phillies
Aug 1864Philadelphia Phillies
Aug 1765Philadelphia Phillies
Jul 2968Miami Marlins
Jul 2801Miami Marlins
Jul 2778Miami Marlins
Jun 17412Miami Marlins
Jun 1682Philadelphia Phillies
Jun 1570Philadelphia Phillies
May 410Philadelphia Phillies

Who’s out or in doubt

15 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Philadelphia Phillies
PlayerStatus
Rafael Marchan COUT
Tanner Banks RPOUT
Felix Reyes LFOUT
Caleb Kilian RPOUT
Brad Keller RPOUT
Johan Rojas CFOUT
Adolis Garcia RFOUT
Miami Marlins
PlayerStatus
Pete Fairbanks RPOUT
Andrew Nardi RPOUT
Max Meyer SPOUT
Anthony Bender RPOUT
William Kempner RPOUT
Robby Snelling SPOUT
Adam Mazur SPOUT
Ronny Henriquez RPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies — model preview

Our Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies prediction for August 20, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On August 20, 2026 our model has run Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Jakob Marsee Under 0.5 RBIs (-333), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
Recent form: won 4 of last 5 settled picks for this matchup.
49
Total Picks
67.3%
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
19 Aug 26 Moneyline Philadelphia Phillies ✓ HIT
19 Aug 26 Spread Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 ✓ HIT
19 Aug 26 Total Runs Under 8.5 ✓ HIT
19 Aug 26 Spread Philadelphia Phillies -3.5 ✗ MISS
19 Aug 26 Spread Philadelphia Phillies -2.5 ✓ HIT
19 Aug 26 Spread Philadelphia Phillies -2 ✓ HIT
19 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Philadelphia Phillies -2.5 ✓ HIT
19 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 ✓ HIT
19 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 1 Innings Over 0.5 ✗ MISS
19 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Philadelphia Phillies -0.5 ✓ HIT
19 Aug 26 Spread Philadelphia Phillies -1 ✓ HIT
19 Aug 26 Total Runs Under 6 ✓ HIT
19 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Philadelphia Phillies -3.5 ✗ MISS
19 Aug 26 Total Runs Under 6.5 ✓ HIT
19 Aug 26 Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings Philadelphia Phillies ✓ HIT

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Marlins vs Phillies, or as Phillies vs Marlins. The most recent game between them was Wednesday 19 August 2026 at Citizens Bank Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. The model has recorded a hit rate of 67.3% on tracked picks between these two teams. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 58 meetings on record
Philadelphia Phillies 33–23 across the last 58 meetings · 2 draws · these games average 9.3 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
19 Aug 2026Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies4–1Philadelphia Phillies
18 Aug 2026Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies6–4Philadelphia Phillies
17 Aug 2026Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies6–5Philadelphia Phillies
29 Jul 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins8–6Miami Marlins
28 Jul 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins1–0Miami Marlins
27 Jul 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins8–7Miami Marlins
17 Jun 2026Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies4–12Miami Marlins
16 Jun 2026Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies8–2Philadelphia Phillies
15 Jun 2026Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies7–0Philadelphia Phillies
4 May 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins0–1Philadelphia Phillies

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 58 meetings on file.

Today's selected board

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