Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Graham Pauley is Under 0.5 on Batter - Walks.
On the Batter - Walks market the model assigns a model win probability of 95%, versus the book's implied 79%, for a model edge of +15.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Aug 11, 11:38PM UTC
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Walks
Under 0.5
-385 (1.26) · $100→$126
+15.5% Edge
Miami Marlins
@
New York Mets
Citi Field, Queens (NYC), New York · Outdoor
Thu 30 Jul, 11:10PM
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb total-runs unders: 559 of 1,032 rightToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
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Implied Probability
79.4%
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Batter - Walks | 94.9% | — | 79.4% | 1.05 | +15.5% |
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| Window | Hit Rate |
|---|
| Last 3 games | 1/3 |
| Last 5 games | 2/5 |
| Last 10 games | 2/9 |
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Graham Pauley (MIA) Under 0.5 Walks (-385)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
New York Mets play Miami Marlins in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Graham Pauley (MIA) Under 0.5 Walks (-385). That is a Walks bet. It was priced at -385 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $12.60 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Recent form (last 5 games)
Graham Pauley is averaging 1.2 hits, 0.0 home runs and 0.4 RBIs per game over his last 5 games.
Hit-rate ladder: Hits Runs Rbis
Graham Pauley has gone over 0.5 hits runs rbis in 100% of his last 10 games, and the hit rate drops as the line rises.
o0.5100%
o1.533%
o2.533%
o3.533%
Home / away and opponent splits
Graham Pauley is averaging 1.2 hits per game over his last 5 and 1.0 in away games, including his recent form against PHI.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
| 30 Jul 26 |
Miami Marlins @ New York Mets |
Batter - Walks |
0.5 |
Under |
-385 |
✓ HIT |
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Graham Pauley (MIA) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Graham Pauley is Under 0.5 on Batter - Walks. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +15.5% on this pick. Their next game is Miami Marlins vs New York Mets on Thursday 30 July at Citi Field, Queens (NYC). Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.
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