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Model picks & player props
Los Angeles Dodgers
VS
Miami Marlins

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Miami Marlins Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 11, 10:14AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
loanDepot Park, Miami
Indoor
Fri 11 Sep 2026, 11:10PM
3
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Over 7.5 Total Runs -110

The model graded 53 markets for Los Angeles Dodgers vs Miami Marlins (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $191 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Fri 11 Sep 2026, 11:10PM at loanDepot Park.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win71.1%
The price says52.4%
Best price-110
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Total Runs Over 7.5 High71% chance -110
Spread Lean56% chance —
Moneyline Lean57% chance —
Batter - Doubles × 7 props Highup to 86% —
Batter - Total Bases × 5 props Highup to 61% —
Batter - RBIs × 5 props Highup to 76% —
Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs × 7 props Leanup to 55% —
Batter - Walks × 1 prop Leanup to 46% —
Batter - Hits × 7 props Highup to 84% —
Batter - Runs Scored × 6 props Highup to 62% —
Batter - Home Runs × 3 props Long-shotup to 29% —
Batter - Stolen Bases × 3 props Highup to 87% —
Batter - Singles × 5 props Highup to 70% —
Pitcher - Earned Runs × 1 prop Highup to 62% —
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
Every MLB game on today's board →
Los Angeles Dodgers are the model's favourite to beat Miami Marlins, with a 57% chance to win. Predicted score: Miami Marlins 4.2 – Los Angeles Dodgers 7. Kick-off Fri 11 Sep, 11:10PM at loanDepot Park. Best bet: Over 7.5 at -110.
How they've been scoring this season
Los Angeles DodgersMiami Marlins
Won-lost89-5872-75
Runs scored per game5.04.4
Runs allowed per game3.84.4
On the road / at home42-29 away43-32 at home
Last 5 gamesWWWWWLWLLL
Their games average 8.8 total runs this season.
From the 147 Los Angeles Dodgers and 147 Miami Marlins games on our books this season.
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Best price on this game

Odds checked in the last few minutes · 27 bookmakers compared
Winner
Dodgers1.50-200Neds
Miami Marlins3.23+223Kalshi
Total runs
Over7.51.96-104Kalshi
Under7.51.96-104Kalshi

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Miami Marlins odds by bookmaker

27 books · best price in green
BookDodgers winMiami Marlins winMiami Marlins +1.5Over 7.5Under 7.5
Bally Bet1.47-2132.75+1751.96-1041.91-1101.91-110
BetMGM1.48-2082.70+1702.00+1001.91-1101.91-110
betPARX1.47-2132.75+1751.96-1041.91-1101.91-110
BetRivers1.48-2082.75+1751.96-1041.91-1101.91-110
Bovada1.47-2132.73+1732.00+1001.91-1101.91-110
DraftKings1.48-2082.70+1701.98-1021.91-1101.91-110
ESPN BET1.47-2132.80+1802.00+1001.87-1151.91-110
Fanatics1.47-2132.75+1752.00+1001.91-1101.91-110
FanDuel1.48-2082.76+1761.96-1041.91-1101.91-110
Fliff1.40-2503.00+2001.95-1051.91-1101.91-110
Hard Rock Bet1.45-2222.75+1752.00+1001.91-1101.91-110
Kalshi1.43-2333.23+223—1.96-1041.96-104
PlayUp1.45-2222.80+1802.02+1021.85-1181.93-108
PointsBet1.48-2082.75+1751.95-1051.90-1111.90-111

Since the market opened: Miami Marlins to win opened 2.82, best now 3.23; the over 7.5 opened 1.89, best now 1.96 (decimal, best book).

Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 27 of 145 right (mlb batter home runs overs)
This bet type · last timeSep 10
Cam Smith Over 0.5
Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $800
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Total Runs
Over
7.5
-110
+ 2 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Los Angeles DodgersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Los Angeles DodgersMoneylineThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Los Angeles Dodgers

  • Gavin Stone SPOut
  • Shohei Ohtani DHOut
  • Freddie Freeman 1BDay-to-day
  • Roki Sasaki SPOut
  • Andy Pages CFOut
  • Dalton Rushing COut
  • Edwin Diaz RPOut
  • Jake Cousins RPOut
  • Will Klein RPOut
  • Eric Lauer SPOut
  • Ben Casparius RPOut
  • Kris Bubic SPOut
  • Brusdar Graterol RPOut

Miami Marlins

  • Anthony Bender RPOut
  • Max Meyer SPOut
  • Xavier Edwards 2BOut
  • Andrew Nardi RPOut
  • William Kempner RPOut
  • Robby Snelling SPOut
  • Adam Mazur SPOut
  • Ronny Henriquez RPOut
Availability updated Sep 10, 3:44PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Los Angeles Dodgers vs Miami Marlins: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 21 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability21 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

The preview

Written 11 Sep

Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction and Picks, September 11, 2026

On September 11, 2026 our model has run Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlins and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Dodgers: Los Angeles Dodgers Win (-208), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

Teoscar Hernandez (LAD) Under 0.5 Hits (+153)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Miami Marlins play Los Angeles Dodgers in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Teoscar Hernandez (LAD) Under 0.5 Hits (+153). That is a Hits bet. It was priced at +153 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $25.30 if it lands. Our model rates this one a long shot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Dodgers: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-118)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Miami Marlins play Los Angeles Dodgers in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Dodgers: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-118). That is a spreads bet. It was priced at -118 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.47 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Teoscar Hernandez (LAD) Over 0.5 Runs Scored (+142)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Miami Marlins play Los Angeles Dodgers in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Teoscar Hernandez (LAD) Over 0.5 Runs Scored (+142). That is a Runs Scored bet. It was priced at +142 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $24.20 if it lands. Our model rates this one a long shot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Teoscar Hernandez (LAD) Over 0.5 Runs Scored (+142)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Miami Marlins play Los Angeles Dodgers in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Teoscar Hernandez (LAD) Over 0.5 Runs Scored (+142). That is a Runs Scored bet. It was priced at +142 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $24.20 if it lands. Our model rates this one a long shot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Max Muncy Over 0.5 RBIs (+147)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Miami Marlins play Los Angeles Dodgers in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Max Muncy Over 0.5 RBIs (+147). That is a RBIs bet. It was priced at +147 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $24.70 if it lands. Our model rates this one a long shot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Dodgers: Los Angeles Dodgers Win (-208)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Miami Marlins play Los Angeles Dodgers in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Dodgers: Los Angeles Dodgers Win (-208). That is a h2h bet. It was priced at -208 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $14.81 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is the whole read. Every bet above is our own number against the price on the board at the time we wrote this, and the price can move before you get on. Bet what you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, take a break.

Bet Better model desk · read as an article

Same game parlay

Written 11 Sep

Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction and Same Game Parlay picks, September 11, 2026

On September 11, 2026 our 3-leg same game parlay for Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlins is built from the bets our model already likes on their own. We rate the whole slip HIGH confidence. Every leg below is a bet our model already rates on its own, so you can see exactly what you are backing and what the book is paying for it.

The legs, one at a time

Tommy Edman (STL) Under 1.5 Hits (-238)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Miami Marlins play Los Angeles Dodgers in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Tommy Edman (STL) Under 1.5 Hits (-238). That is a Hits bet. It was priced at -238 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $14.20 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Esteury Ruiz (MIA) Under 0.5 RBIs (-556)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Miami Marlins play Los Angeles Dodgers in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Esteury Ruiz (MIA) Under 0.5 RBIs (-556). That is a RBIs bet. It was priced at -556 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $11.80 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Heriberto Hernandez Under 0.5 Doubles (-625)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Miami Marlins play Los Angeles Dodgers in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Heriberto Hernandez Under 0.5 Doubles (-625). That is a Doubles bet. It was priced at -625 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $11.60 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is the whole read. Every leg above is our own number against the price on the board at the time we wrote this, and the price can move before you get on. Bet what you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, take a break.

Bet Better model desk · read as an article

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Brian Navarreto MIA Batter - Doubles
Kyle Tucker HOU Batter - Total Bases
Max Muncy Batter - Total Bases
Brian Navarreto MIA Batter - Total Bases
Will Smith LAD Batter - Total Bases

+ 50 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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The players are right there — Pro shows which of their lines the model backs, and how much to put on each.

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Betting angles

3 markets live
Total RunsGame total · Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles DodgersOver 7.5 -110
71%over %
11.1proj. runs
L5 RF2.6L5 RA2.4Home L52-3vs Los Angeles Dodgers L53-2

Miami Marlins total runs vs Los Angeles Dodgers is live and our model makes it 71% (HIGH); proj. runs 11.1.

Run LineLos Angeles Dodgers run line-1.5 -118
56%cover %
-2.8proj. margin
L5 RF2.0L5 RA1.6Away L51-4vs Miami Marlins L52-3

Los Angeles Dodgers spread vs Miami Marlins is live and our model makes it 56% (LEAN); proj. margin -2.8.

MoneylineLos Angeles Dodgers to win-208
57%model win %
2-3L5 record
L5 RF2.0L5 RA1.6Away L51-4vs Miami Marlins L52-3Free board13-11

Los Angeles Dodgers moneyline vs Miami Marlins is live and our model makes it 57% (LEAN); L5 record 2-3.

Team Total RunsMiami Marlins team totalNo line posted
2.1runs we expect
L5 RF2.6L5 RA2.4Home L52-3vs Los Angeles Dodgers L53-2

Miami Marlins team total runs form: last five 2-3, 2.6 runs/gm.

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins — what the model found

Our model graded 53 betting markets for Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlins — 3 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

3
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 53 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 52 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs Miami Marlins — recent results

Miami Marlins have won 1 of their last 5 games; Los Angeles Dodgers have won 5 of their last 5.

Miami Marlins — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L14–15NYMHome
L5–7NYMHome
L4–9NYMHome
W10–3CHCHome
L5–6CHCHome
Los Angeles Dodgers — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W14–1CINHome
W3–2CINHome
W6–3CINHome
W7–5WSHHome
W6–5WSHHome

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Miami Marlins — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Miami Marlins are scoring 2.6 runs per game (2-3) while Los Angeles Dodgers are at 2.0 (2-3); Miami Marlins pitchers are allowing 2.4 earned runs per game versus 1.6 for Los Angeles Dodgers.

2.6
Miami Marlins runs/G
2.0
Los Angeles Dodgers runs/G
Last 5 gamesMiami MarlinsLos Angeles Dodgers
Runs / game2.62.0
Hits / game2.41.6
Home runs / game0.40.2
Walks drawn / game1.21.2
Batter K / game1.83.0
Earned runs allowed / game2.41.6
Pitching K / game1.63.2
Walks allowed / game1.60.8
L5 record2-32-3

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Miami Marlins — recent meetings

These two have met 3 times recently: Miami Marlins won 2, Los Angeles Dodgers won 1.

DateMiami MarlinsLos Angeles DodgersWinner
Apr 2921Miami Marlins
Apr 2932Miami Marlins
Apr 2845Los Angeles Dodgers

Who’s out or in doubt

21 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Miami Marlins
PlayerStatus
Anthony Bender RPOUT
Max Meyer SPOUT
Xavier Edwards 2BOUT
Andrew Nardi RPOUT
William Kempner RPOUT
Robby Snelling SPOUT
Adam Mazur SPOUT
Ronny Henriquez RPOUT
Los Angeles Dodgers
PlayerStatus
Gavin Stone SPOUT
Shohei Ohtani DHOUT
Freddie Freeman 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Roki Sasaki SPOUT
Andy Pages CFOUT
Dalton Rushing COUT
Edwin Diaz RPOUT
Jake Cousins RPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins — model preview

Our Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlins prediction for September 11, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On September 11, 2026 our model has run Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlins and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Dodgers: Los Angeles Dodgers Win (-208), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
Unlock the full write-up
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Los Angeles Dodgers vs Miami Marlins in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Dodgers vs Marlins, or as Marlins vs Dodgers. The next scheduled game is Friday 11 September 2026 at loanDepot Park. The model has generated 3 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 20 meetings on record
Los Angeles Dodgers 14–6 across the last 20 meetings · these games average 11.6 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
29 Apr 2026Miami Marlins @ Los Angeles Dodgers1–2Miami Marlins
28 Apr 2026Miami Marlins @ Los Angeles Dodgers5–4Los Angeles Dodgers
27 Apr 2026Miami Marlins @ Los Angeles Dodgers5–4Los Angeles Dodgers
7 May 2025Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins1–10Los Angeles Dodgers
6 May 2025Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins5–4Miami Marlins
5 May 2025Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins4–7Los Angeles Dodgers
30 Apr 2025Miami Marlins @ Los Angeles Dodgers12–7Los Angeles Dodgers
29 Apr 2025Miami Marlins @ Los Angeles Dodgers15–2Los Angeles Dodgers
28 Apr 2025Miami Marlins @ Los Angeles Dodgers7–6Los Angeles Dodgers
19 Sep 2024Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins4–20Los Angeles Dodgers

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 20 meetings on file.

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