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Model picks & player props
Baltimore Orioles
VS
Philadelphia Phillies

Baltimore Orioles vs Philadelphia Phillies Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 10, 7:16PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia
Outdoor
Mon 4 Aug 2025, 10:45PM
2
Game markets graded
6
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: Philadelphia Phillies (Moneyline)
The model graded 8 markets for Baltimore Orioles vs Philadelphia Phillies (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $148 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 85.7%, fair odds 1.17, book price -208, model edge +18.1%. Tip-off Mon 4 Aug 2025, 10:45PM at Citizens Bank Park.

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 546 of 996 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 10
Under 9.5
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Game picks

+EV edge in green
Moneyline
Philadelphia Phillies
+ 1 more market
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Philadelphia PhilliesMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Baltimore Orioles

  • Ryan Helsley RPOut
  • Blaze Alexander 3BOut
  • Felix Bautista RPOut
  • Samuel Basallo COut
  • Chris Bassitt SPOut
  • Colin Selby RPOut
  • Ryan Mountcastle 1BOut
  • Keegan Akin RPOut
  • Jordan Westburg 3BOut

Probable pitcher

Trevor Rogers SP

Philadelphia Phillies

  • Caleb Kilian RPDay-to-day
  • Derek Hill CFDay-to-day
  • Brad Keller RPOut
  • Tanner Banks RPOut
  • Rafael Marchan COut
  • Johan Rojas CFOut
  • Adolis Garcia RFOut

Probable pitcher

Andrew Painter SP
Availability updated Aug 10, 11:45PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Baltimore Orioles vs Philadelphia Phillies: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 16 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability16 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Colton Cowser BAL Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Bryson Stott PHI Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Gunnar Henderson BAL Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Adley Rutschman BAL Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Gunnar Henderson BAL Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylinePhiladelphia PhilliesNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF2.8L5 RA1.4Home L54-1vs Baltimore Orioles L53-2

Philadelphia Phillies moneyline form: last five 3-2, 2.8 runs/gm.

Run LinePhiladelphia Phillies run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF2.8L5 RA1.4Home L54-1vs Baltimore Orioles L53-2

Philadelphia Phillies spread form: last five 3-2, 2.8 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore OriolesNo line posted

Philadelphia Phillies total runs form: last five 3-2, 2.8 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsPhiladelphia Phillies team totalNo line posted
1.7runs we expect
L5 RF2.8L5 RA1.4Home L54-1vs Baltimore Orioles L53-2

Philadelphia Phillies team total runs form: last five 3-2, 2.8 runs/gm.

Baltimore Orioles @ Philadelphia Phillies — what the model found

Our model graded 8 betting markets for Baltimore Orioles at Philadelphia Phillies — 2 on the game itself and 6 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

2
Game markets graded
6
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 8 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 7 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Baltimore Orioles vs Philadelphia Phillies — recent results

Philadelphia Phillies have won 2 of their last 5 games; Baltimore Orioles have won 2 of their last 5.

Philadelphia Phillies — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W7–6TORHome
L5–7TORHome
L4–5TORHome
W7–3WSHHome
L4–10WSHHome
Baltimore Orioles — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W10–5TEXAway
L1–2TEXAway
L1–5TEXAway
L1–4LAAHome
W5–2LAAHome

Baltimore Orioles vs Philadelphia Phillies — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Philadelphia Phillies are scoring 5.6 runs per game (2-3) while Baltimore Orioles are at 4.0 (3-2); Philadelphia Phillies pitchers are allowing 5.4 earned runs per game versus 5.4 for Baltimore Orioles.

5.6
Philadelphia Phillies runs/G
4.0
Baltimore Orioles runs/G
Last 5 gamesPhiladelphia PhilliesBaltimore Orioles
Runs / game5.64.0
Hits / game10.25.6
Home runs / game0.62.2
Walks drawn / game3.82.8
Batter K / game8.08.0
Earned runs allowed / game5.45.4
Pitching K / game8.65.4
Walks allowed / game2.83.6
L5 record2-33-2

Baltimore Orioles vs Philadelphia Phillies — recent meetings

These two have met 3 times recently: Philadelphia Phillies won 2, Baltimore Orioles won 1.

DatePhiladelphia PhilliesBaltimore OriolesWinner
Aug 280Philadelphia Phillies
Aug 150Philadelphia Phillies
Jul 3146Baltimore Orioles

Who’s out or in doubt

16 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Philadelphia Phillies
PlayerStatus
Caleb Kilian RPDAY-TO-DAY
Derek Hill CFDAY-TO-DAY
Brad Keller RPOUT
Tanner Banks RPOUT
Rafael Marchan COUT
Johan Rojas CFOUT
Adolis Garcia RFOUT
Baltimore Orioles
PlayerStatus
Ryan Helsley RPOUT
Blaze Alexander 3BOUT
Felix Bautista RPOUT
Samuel Basallo COUT
Chris Bassitt SPOUT
Colin Selby RPOUT
Ryan Mountcastle 1BOUT
Keegan Akin RPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Baltimore Orioles @ Philadelphia Phillies — model preview

Expert analysis and top MLB betting picks for Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles. Includes analysis on key players like Bryce Harper. Discover MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles stats and odds.

Bryce Harper (PHI) Over 0.5 Hits (-208)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Betting on Bryce Harper to have over 0.5 hits is a strong choice based on his consistent performance at home and against the Orioles. Harper's last five games show an average of 1.2 hits against the Orioles and an impressive 1.7 hits when playing at home. These stats indicate a strong likelihood of Harper achieving at least one hit in the upcoming game. Additionally, his plate appearance averages are high, at 4.6 overall and 4.4 against the Orioles, providing ample opportunities for hits. Despite his current hit streak being zero, Harper's previous record shows a high probability of scoring a hit in this game. Therefore, the bet on Harper for over 0.5 hits is backed by strong statistical evidence.

🔒 The other 5 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Baltimore Orioles vs Philadelphia Phillies in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Orioles vs Phillies, or as Phillies vs Orioles. The most recent game between them was Monday 4 August 2025 at Citizens Bank Park. The model has generated 2 game picks and 6 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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