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Model picks & player props
Baltimore Orioles
VS
Philadelphia Phillies

Baltimore Orioles vs Philadelphia Phillies Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 1, 9:10AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia
Outdoor
Mon 4 Aug 2025, 10:45PM
2
Game markets graded
6
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline -208

The model graded 8 markets for Baltimore Orioles vs Philadelphia Phillies (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $148 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Mon 4 Aug 2025, 10:45PM at Citizens Bank Park.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win85.7%
The price says67.6%
Best price-208
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Moneyline Philadelphia Phillies High86% chance -208
Batter - Hits × 5 props Highup to 73%
Batter - Stolen Bases × 1 prop Highup to 93%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Moneyline
Philadelphia Phillies
+ 1 more market
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Philadelphia PhilliesMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Baltimore Orioles

  • Tyler O'Neill RFOut
  • Ryan Helsley RPOut
  • Felix Bautista RPOut
  • Colin Selby RPOut
  • Ryan Mountcastle 1BOut
  • Keegan Akin RPOut
  • Jordan Westburg 3BOut
  • Zach Eflin SPOut

Probable pitcher

Cade Povich SP

Philadelphia Phillies

  • Rafael Marchan COut
  • Tanner Banks RPOut
  • Felix Reyes LFOut
  • Caleb Kilian RPOut
  • Brad Keller RPOut
  • Johan Rojas CFOut
  • Adolis Garcia RFOut

Probable pitcher

Aaron Nola SP
Availability updated Sep 1, 1:40AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Baltimore Orioles vs Philadelphia Phillies: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 15 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability15 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Colton Cowser BAL Batter - Hits
Bryson Stott PHI Batter - Hits
Gunnar Henderson BAL Batter - Stolen Bases
Adley Rutschman BAL Batter - Hits
Gunnar Henderson BAL Batter - Hits

+ 6 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylinePhiladelphia PhilliesNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF1.8L5 RA0.2Home L53-2vs Baltimore Orioles L53-2

Philadelphia Phillies moneyline form: last five 3-2, 1.8 runs/gm.

Run LinePhiladelphia Phillies run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF1.8L5 RA0.2Home L53-2vs Baltimore Orioles L53-2

Philadelphia Phillies spread form: last five 3-2, 1.8 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore OriolesNo line posted

Philadelphia Phillies total runs form: last five 3-2, 1.8 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsPhiladelphia Phillies team totalNo line posted
1.9runs we expect
L5 RF1.8L5 RA0.2Home L53-2vs Baltimore Orioles L53-2

Philadelphia Phillies team total runs form: last five 3-2, 1.8 runs/gm.

Baltimore Orioles @ Philadelphia Phillies — what the model found

Our model graded 8 betting markets for Baltimore Orioles at Philadelphia Phillies — 2 on the game itself and 6 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

2
Game markets graded
6
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 8 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

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Baltimore Orioles vs Philadelphia Phillies — recent results

Philadelphia Phillies have won 4 of their last 5 games; Baltimore Orioles have won 4 of their last 5.

Philadelphia Phillies — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W4–2LAAAway
W5–2LAAAway
W5–3LAAAway
L1–4SEAAway
W6–0SEAAway
Baltimore Orioles — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W5–3ATHAway
W8–5ATHAway
W4–3ATHAway
L5–7STLAway
W8–7STLAway

Baltimore Orioles vs Philadelphia Phillies — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Philadelphia Phillies are scoring 5.6 runs per game (2-3) while Baltimore Orioles are at 4.0 (3-2); Philadelphia Phillies pitchers are allowing 5.4 earned runs per game versus 5.4 for Baltimore Orioles.

5.6
Philadelphia Phillies runs/G
4.0
Baltimore Orioles runs/G
Last 5 gamesPhiladelphia PhilliesBaltimore Orioles
Runs / game5.64.0
Hits / game10.25.6
Home runs / game0.62.2
Walks drawn / game3.82.8
Batter K / game8.08.0
Earned runs allowed / game5.45.4
Pitching K / game8.65.4
Walks allowed / game2.83.6
L5 record2-33-2

Baltimore Orioles vs Philadelphia Phillies — recent meetings

These two have met 5 times recently: Philadelphia Phillies won 3, Baltimore Orioles won 2.

DatePhiladelphia PhilliesBaltimore OriolesWinner
Aug 280Philadelphia Phillies
Aug 150Philadelphia Phillies
Jul 3146Baltimore Orioles
Mar 21810Baltimore Orioles
Mar 13118Philadelphia Phillies

Who’s out or in doubt

15 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Philadelphia Phillies
PlayerStatus
Rafael Marchan COUT
Tanner Banks RPOUT
Felix Reyes LFOUT
Caleb Kilian RPOUT
Brad Keller RPOUT
Johan Rojas CFOUT
Adolis Garcia RFOUT
Baltimore Orioles
PlayerStatus
Tyler O'Neill RFOUT
Ryan Helsley RPOUT
Felix Bautista RPOUT
Colin Selby RPOUT
Ryan Mountcastle 1BOUT
Keegan Akin RPOUT
Jordan Westburg 3BOUT
Zach Eflin SPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Baltimore Orioles @ Philadelphia Phillies — model preview

Expert analysis and top MLB betting picks for Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles. Includes analysis on key players like Bryce Harper. Discover MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles stats and odds.

Bryce Harper (PHI) Over 0.5 Hits (-208)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Betting on Bryce Harper to have over 0.5 hits is a strong choice based on his consistent performance at home and against the Orioles. Harper's last five games show an average of 1.2 hits against the Orioles and an impressive 1.7 hits when playing at home. These stats indicate a strong likelihood of Harper achieving at least one hit in the upcoming game. Additionally, his plate appearance averages are high, at 4.6 overall and 4.4 against the Orioles, providing ample opportunities for hits. Despite his current hit streak being zero, Harper's previous record shows a high probability of scoring a hit in this game. Therefore, the bet on Harper for over 0.5 hits is backed by strong statistical evidence.

🔒 The other 5 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Baltimore Orioles vs Philadelphia Phillies in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Orioles vs Phillies, or as Phillies vs Orioles. The most recent game between them was Monday 4 August 2025 at Citizens Bank Park. The model has generated 2 game picks and 6 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 24 meetings on record
Philadelphia Phillies 13–11 across the last 24 meetings · these games average 10.8 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
2 Aug 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles0–8Philadelphia Phillies
1 Aug 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles0–5Philadelphia Phillies
31 Jul 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles6–4Baltimore Orioles
21 Mar 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles10–8Baltimore Orioles
13 Mar 2026Baltimore Orioles @ Philadelphia Phillies11–8Philadelphia Phillies
6 Aug 2025Baltimore Orioles @ Philadelphia Phillies1–5Baltimore Orioles
5 Aug 2025Baltimore Orioles @ Philadelphia Phillies5–0Philadelphia Phillies
4 Aug 2025Baltimore Orioles @ Philadelphia Phillies13–3Philadelphia Phillies
16 Mar 2025Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles1–12Philadelphia Phillies
9 Mar 2025Baltimore Orioles @ Philadelphia Phillies12–2Philadelphia Phillies

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 24 meetings on file.

Today's selected board

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