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The latest Bet Better model pick for Bryce Harper is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases.
On the Batter - Total Bases market the model assigns a model win probability of 80%, versus the book's implied 60%, for a model edge of +20.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 16, 8:13AM UTC
MLB

Bryce Harper

PHI

+20.7% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Total Bases Under 1.5 -147 (1.68)
+20.7% Edge
New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies
Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania · Outdoor
Thu 16 Jul, 11:10PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
80.3%
Implied Probability
59.5%
Model Edge
+20.7%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Total Bases80.3%—59.5%1.25+20.7%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games0/5
Last 10 games2/10

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AI Analysis

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Bryce Harper (PHI) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-147)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Phillies gear up to face the Mets, all eyes will be on Bryce Harper. While Harper is undoubtedly one of the league’s premier sluggers, the matchup suggests he might struggle to find his rhythm tonight. The Mets' ace, with a sharp slider and a knack for keeping hitters off balance, has historically limited Harper’s effectiveness at the plate. Over the past month, Harper's been hitting just .240 against right-handed pitchers, and the Mets’ staff has been exceptional, maintaining a solid ERA in the low threes. Additionally, the Phillies have seen a dip in overall offensive production against strong pitching, leading to fewer opportunities for extra-base hits. Given these factors, betting on Harper to stay under 1.5 total bases seems prudent. The trends and matchups lean toward a quiet night for the star outfielder, making this wager a compelling choice in this divisional clash.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 3 of last 3(100%)

Betting angles

1 market live
Batter - Total BasesUpcoming vs NYMU 1.5 -147+20.7% edge
90%hit L10
Streak7L2075%

Bryce Harper MLB total bases: cleared under 1.5 in 90% of the last 10 games vs NYM. Current line U 1.5 at -147 (+20.7% model edge).

Batter - HitsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.530%
Game log vs O 0.5avg 0.3 · hi 1 · lo 0
100

Bryce Harper MLB hitsseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.540%
O 1.510%
O 2.510%
O 3.510%
O 4.510%

Bryce Harper MLB hits + runs + rbisseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.510%
O 1.510%

Bryce Harper MLB rbisseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Runs ScoredSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.520%
O 1.510%

Bryce Harper MLB runs scoredseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - SinglesSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.520%

Bryce Harper MLB singlesseason and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
09 Jul 26 Philadelphia Phillies @ Cincinnati Reds Batter - Hits 1.5 Under -250 ✓ HIT
06 Jul 26 Philadelphia Phillies @ Kansas City Royals Batter - Hits 1.5 Under -270 ✓ HIT
23 Jun 26 Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals Batter - Hits 1.5 Under -256 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Bryce Harper (PHI) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Bryce Harper is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +20.7% on this pick. Their next game is New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies on Thursday 16 July at Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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