Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Today's bet is live / One clear pick a day / Tracked in public — wins & losses / Free to start, no card
Model picks & player props
Arizona Diamondbacks
VS
New York Mets

Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Mets Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 22, 5:53PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Citi Field, Queens (NYC)
Outdoor
Thu 9 Apr 2026, 11:10PM
20
Game Picks
1
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Arizona Diamondbacks -3 (Spread)
For Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Mets (MLB), model win probability 21.5%, fair odds 4.65, book price +459, model edge +3.6%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Thu 9 Apr 2026, 11:10PM at Citi Field.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Spread
Arizona Diamondbacks
-2.5
+ 19 more markets
Unlock with Pro
🔒

Unlock every graded pick for this game

See the full board for this matchup — every market, every line, every edge — plus every pick across the slate.

Bet Better Unlock all game picks
Cancel anytime · full verified record at /results

Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Arizona DiamondbacksSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Arizona DiamondbacksSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Arizona DiamondbacksSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Arizona DiamondbacksSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Unlock the full calibrated board

See the model's calibrated probability, fair odds and edge on every market in this matchup.

Bet Better Unlock calibrated edges
Cancel anytime · full verified record at /results

Who's out

Injuries & availability

Arizona Diamondbacks

  • Drey Jameson RPOut
  • Zac Gallen SPOut
  • Justin Martinez RPOut
  • Lourdes Gurriel Jr. LFOut
  • A.J. Puk RPOut
  • Jordan Lawlar LFOut
  • Ryne Nelson SPOut
  • Andrew Saalfrank RPOut
  • Michael Soroka SPOut
  • Tommy Troy LFOut
  • Corbin Burnes SPOut
  • Cristian Mena RPOut
  • Blake Walston SPOut

Probable pitcher

Kohl Drake SP

New York Mets

  • Clay Holmes SPOut
  • Justin Hagenman RPOut
  • Mark Vientos 1BOut
  • Austin Warren RPOut
  • Dedniel Nunez RPOut
  • Reed Garrett RPOut
  • Tylor Megill SPOut

Probable pitcher

Zac Thornton SP
Availability updated Jul 22, 1:40AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Mets: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 20 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability20 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Francisco Alvarez Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

Unlock every player prop for this game

Get the player, the line, the pick and the edge on every graded prop in this matchup.

Bet Better Unlock player props
Cancel anytime · full verified record at /results

Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineNew York MetsNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF3.0L5 RA2.2Home L52-3vs Arizona Diamondbacks L53-2

New York Mets moneyline form: last five 2-3, 3.0 runs/gm.

Run LineNew York Mets run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF3.0L5 RA2.2Home L52-3vs Arizona Diamondbacks L53-2

New York Mets spread form: last five 2-3, 3.0 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · New York Mets vs Arizona DiamondbacksNo line posted

New York Mets total runs form: last five 2-3, 3.0 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsNew York Mets team totalNo line posted
2.5implied team total
L5 RF3.0L5 RA2.2Home L52-3vs Arizona Diamondbacks L53-2

New York Mets team total runs form: last five 2-3, 3.0 runs/gm.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Mets — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games New York Mets are scoring 4.0 runs per game (4-1) while Arizona Diamondbacks are at 3.6 (4-1); New York Mets pitchers are allowing 1.4 earned runs per game versus 0.6 for Arizona Diamondbacks.

4.0
New York Mets runs/G
3.6
Arizona Diamondbacks runs/G
Last 5 gamesNew York MetsArizona Diamondbacks
Runs / game4.03.6
Hits / game5.43.4
Home runs / game0.40.0
Walks drawn / game1.61.2
Batter K / game2.42.8
Earned runs allowed / game1.40.6
Pitching K / game3.82.0
Walks allowed / game1.61.2
L5 record4-14-1

Arizona Diamondbacks @ New York Mets — model preview

<p>Latest MLB betting preview: New York Mets vs Arizona Diamondbacks. Get predictions and top picks. Includes analysis on key players like NA. Keywords: MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, New York Mets vs Arizona Diamondbacks stats and odds.</p>

New York Mets vs Arizona Diamondbacks : Under 6 Total Runs (+139)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Mets take on the Diamondbacks at Citi Field, a compelling narrative is shaping up around a low-scoring affair. Both teams have struggled at the plate lately, with the Mets batting just .225 in their last ten games. Arizona's offense hasn't fared much better, mustering a mere 3.5 runs per game during that stretch. On the mound, the Mets’ ace has been in impressive form, boasting a 2.90 ERA, while the Diamondbacks’ starter is more than capable of keeping the score down, especially against a struggling lineup. The home park’s dimensions also favor pitchers, often suppressing run production. With the models predicting just under six runs and both teams trending toward the under, backing the total to stay below 6 feels like a smart play. Look for a tight, low-scoring contest as these two teams grapple for runs.

New York Mets vs Arizona Diamondbacks : Under 8.5 Total Runs (-179)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Mets prepare to host the Diamondbacks, the stage is set for a low-scoring affair. Both teams have shown recent tendencies to struggle offensively. The Mets' bats have been inconsistent, averaging just over four runs in their last series, while the Diamondbacks have been even quieter, flailing against quality pitching. Adding to the under's appeal is the matchup on the mound. The Mets’ starter has been a steady presence, boasting a solid ERA and a penchant for racking up strikeouts, making it hard for opposing hitters to find their groove. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks' pitcher has been effective in limiting runs, especially against left-handed hitters, who the Mets will likely field in droves. With both teams trending toward the under and a line set at 8.5, I see significant value here. Expect a game that leans more towards a pitcher’s duel than a slugfest.

New York Mets vs Arizona Diamondbacks : Under 7.5 Total Runs (-128)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the New York Mets host the Arizona Diamondbacks, the vibe suggests a low-scoring affair. The Mets have shown a knack for tight pitching, boasting a stellar rotation led by a starter with a sub-3 ERA. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks have stumbled at the plate, ranking near the bottom in runs scored over the last couple of weeks. Recent trends amplify the case for the Under. The Mets' bullpen has been particularly stingy, allowing just a handful of earned runs over their last series, while Arizona's lineup seems to struggle against left-handed pitchers—an aspect the Mets will exploit today. With a projected total of just under 6 runs, the Under 7.5 looks like a savvy play. Expect a duel where runs are at a premium, reflecting what we've seen in both teams' recent performances. This matchup is ripe for a defensive showcase, making the Under a compelling choice.

New York Mets vs Arizona Diamondbacks : Under 7.5 Total Runs (-130)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Mets prepare to host the Diamondbacks, the stage is set for a duel that leans heavily towards a low-scoring affair. The Mets' pitching staff has been a revelation, with their starters consistently delivering strong outings, evidenced by a collective ERA that ranks among the league's best. On the other side, the Diamondbacks’ offense has struggled to find its rhythm, particularly against left-handed pitching, making tonight’s matchup with the Mets' southpaw a daunting challenge. With a total set at 7.5 runs, it’s hard to overlook the recent trends. Both teams have shown a propensity for grinding out games, with the Mets averaging just over four runs per game lately. Combine that with the Diamondbacks’ recent slide into offensive inefficacy, and you have a recipe for an underwhelming scoreboard. If both pitchers can continue their strong form, expect a tightly contested battle that finishes well below the line.

New York Mets vs Arizona Diamondbacks : Under 7 Total Runs (-110)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Mets host the Diamondbacks on Thursday, April 9, the spotlight turns to two teams that have been trending towards the Under lately. New York's pitching staff has been stellar, boasting an impressive ERA that reflects their ability to stifle opposing bats. If we look at their recent outings, they’ve consistently kept games tight, allowing just a handful of runs. On the flip side, Arizona's lineup has struggled to find consistent rhythm at the plate, often leaving runners stranded in crucial moments. With both clubs leaning heavily on their pitching, the odds of a high-scoring affair seem slim. The model projects just shy of six runs, which aligns with the narrative of a low-scoring matchup. With the Under set at 7, it feels like a smart move to ride the trend and trust both pitchers to dominate the evening. Expect a chess match rather than a slugfest in this one.

New York Mets vs Arizona Diamondbacks : Arizona Diamondbacks Win (+136)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Mets host the Diamondbacks, there’s an intriguing undercurrent suggesting the visitors could pull off an upset. The Diamondbacks have been quietly gathering steam, boasting a robust .270 average over the last week, with key hitters like Ketel Marte heating up at the plate. Meanwhile, the Mets have struggled to find their rhythm lately, particularly against left-handed pitching, which is where Arizona's starter has excelled. On the mound, Arizona’s pitcher has shown flashes of brilliance, especially when facing teams with high strikeout rates, and the Mets have been swinging and missing more often as of late. With the Diamondbacks riding a wave of recent success, including a solid showing in their last series, they present excellent value on the moneyline. Don’t overlook the potential for Arizona to capitalize on the Mets’ inconsistencies and snag a crucial win on the road.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
4
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
09 Apr 26 Spread Arizona Diamondbacks -2.5 ✓ HIT
09 Apr 26 Spread Arizona Diamondbacks 1 ✓ HIT
09 Apr 26 Spread Arizona Diamondbacks -2 ✓ HIT
09 Apr 26 Spread Arizona Diamondbacks -3 ✓ HIT

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Mets in the MLB. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Thursday 9 April 2026 at Citi Field. The model has generated 20 game picks and 1 player prop for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks