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Model picks & player props
Toronto Blue Jays
VS
Houston Astros

Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 23, 9:17AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Minute Maid Park, Houston
Indoor
Wed 5 Aug 2026, 6:10PM
20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
54.8%
Historical Hit Rate
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Houston Astros -1.5 Spread - 1st 5 Innings +144

The model graded 70 markets for Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $244 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Wed 5 Aug 2026, 6:10PM at Minute Maid Park.

Our confidenceLean
Chance to win56.9%
The price says41.0%
Best price+144
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Spread - 1st 5 Innings Houston Astros -1.5 Lean57% chance +144
Total Runs Long-shot36% chance
Spread - 1st 5 Innings Lean44% chance
Total Runs Lean48% chance
Spread - 1st 5 Innings High69% chance
Total Runs Long-shot32% chance
Total Runs Lean44% chance
Spread Long-shot37% chance
Spread Lean45% chance
Batter - Singles × 8 props Highup to 88%
Batter - Runs Scored × 2 props Highup to 72%
Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs × 10 props Highup to 96%
Pitcher - Hits Allowed × 4 props Highup to 88%
Batter - Hits × 3 props Highup to 75%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
This game is done — the model’s call CASHED
Houston Astros -1.5 · $100 returned $280

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 877 of 1,754 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 22
Under 5.5
Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $365
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Spread - 1st 5 Innings
Houston Astros
-1.5
+ 19 more markets
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All 20 game markets and 50 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 55,566+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Houston AstrosSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Beat the close

Closing-line value · logged
70%

Our picks beat the closing line here

On our logged picks for this event, we beat the market's closing number 70% of the time — average closing-line value +11.6%. Closing-line value is the sharpest public measure of whether a pick had real edge.

Avg CLV +11.6%

Who's out

Injuries & availability

Toronto Blue Jays

  • Andres Gimenez SSDay-to-day
  • Josh Smith 2BOut
  • Joe Mantiply RPOut
  • Trey Yesavage SPOut
  • Jameson Taillon SPOut
  • Jake Bloss SPOut
  • Luis Urias 2BOut
  • Yimi Garcia RPOut
  • Patrick Corbin SPOut
  • Addison Barger RFOut
  • Jonatan Clase LFOut
  • Anthony Santander RFOut
  • Jose Berrios SPOut
  • Cody Ponce SPOut
  • Bowden Francis SPOut

Probable pitcher

Dylan Cease SP

Houston Astros

  • Mike Burrows SPOut
  • Brice Matthews CFOut
  • Carlos Correa SSOut
  • Brandon Walter SPOut

Probable pitcher

Hunter Brown SP
Availability updated Aug 22, 11:10PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 19 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability19 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Isaac Paredes TBR Batter - Singles
Christian Walker HOU Batter - Runs Scored
Christian Walker HOU Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs
Trey Yesavage Pitcher - Hits Allowed
Daulton Varsho TOR Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs

+ 50 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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The players are right there — Pro shows which of their lines the model backs, and how much to put on each.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineHouston AstrosNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF1.6L5 RA1.8Home L52-3vs Toronto Blue Jays L51-4Free board13-11

Houston Astros moneyline form: last five 1-4, 1.6 runs/gm.

Run LineHouston Astros run lineNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF1.6L5 RA1.8Home L52-3vs Toronto Blue Jays L51-4Free board14-12

Houston Astros spread form: last five 1-4, 1.6 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue JaysNo line posted

Houston Astros total runs form: last five 1-4, 1.6 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsHouston Astros team totalNo line posted
1.5runs we expect
L5 RF1.6L5 RA1.8Home L52-3vs Toronto Blue Jays L51-4

Houston Astros team total runs form: last five 1-4, 1.6 runs/gm.

Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for Toronto Blue Jays at Houston Astros — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros — recent results

Houston Astros have won 2 of their last 5 games; Toronto Blue Jays have won 3 of their last 5.

Houston Astros — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W4–0ATHHome
L3–4ATHHome
L3–18LAAHome
W3–2LAAHome
L1–3LAAHome
Toronto Blue Jays — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W4–3NYYAway
L1–3NYYAway
W5–1TBAway
L6–7TBAway
W10–5TBAway

Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Houston Astros are scoring 4.2 runs per game (4-1) while Toronto Blue Jays are at 2.4 (3-2); Houston Astros pitchers are allowing 1.6 earned runs per game versus 1.6 for Toronto Blue Jays.

4.2
Houston Astros runs/G
2.4
Toronto Blue Jays runs/G
Last 5 gamesHouston AstrosToronto Blue Jays
Runs / game4.22.4
Hits / game6.04.0
Home runs / game0.20.2
Walks drawn / game4.41.0
Batter K / game2.23.0
Earned runs allowed / game1.61.6
Pitching K / game2.42.0
Walks allowed / game1.22.8
L5 record4-13-2

Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros — recent meetings

These two have met 6 times recently: Houston Astros won 3, Toronto Blue Jays won 3.

DateHouston AstrosToronto Blue JaysWinner
Aug 545Toronto Blue Jays
Aug 572Houston Astros
Aug 413Toronto Blue Jays
Jun 2431Houston Astros
Jun 2397Houston Astros
Jun 2224Toronto Blue Jays

Who’s out or in doubt

19 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Houston Astros
PlayerStatus
Mike Burrows SPOUT
Brice Matthews CFOUT
Carlos Correa SSOUT
Brandon Walter SPOUT
Toronto Blue Jays
PlayerStatus
Andres Gimenez SSDAY-TO-DAY
Josh Smith 2BOUT
Joe Mantiply RPOUT
Trey Yesavage SPOUT
Jameson Taillon SPOUT
Jake Bloss SPOUT
Luis Urias 2BOUT
Yimi Garcia RPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros — model preview

Our Toronto Blue Jays at Houston Astros prediction for August 6, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On August 6, 2026 our model has run Toronto Blue Jays at Houston Astros and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays: Under 12.5 Total Runs (-500), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Cashed picks for this matchup

From the public log
Recent form: won 3 of last 5 settled picks for this matchup.
DateMarketPickResult
05 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Houston Astros -1.5 ✓ HIT
05 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Houston Astros -2.5 ✓ HIT
05 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Houston Astros -0.5 ✓ HIT
05 Aug 26 Spread Houston Astros -3.5 ✓ HIT
05 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Houston Astros -3.5 ✓ HIT
05 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Under 3.5 ✓ HIT
05 Aug 26 Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings Houston Astros ✓ HIT
05 Aug 26 Spread Houston Astros -1 ✓ HIT
05 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Houston Astros 0.5 ✓ HIT
05 Aug 26 Spread Houston Astros -1.5 ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Jays vs Astros, or as Astros vs Jays. The most recent game between them was Wednesday 5 August 2026 at Minute Maid Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. The model has recorded a hit rate of 54.8% on tracked picks between these two teams. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Last time they played

Final scores · last 6 meetings
Even at 3–3 across the last 6 meetings
DateGameScoreWinner
5 Aug 2026Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros7–2Houston Astros
5 Aug 2026Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros4–5Toronto Blue Jays
4 Aug 2026Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros1–3Toronto Blue Jays
24 Jun 2026Houston Astros @ Toronto Blue Jays1–3Houston Astros
23 Jun 2026Houston Astros @ Toronto Blue Jays7–9Houston Astros
22 Jun 2026Houston Astros @ Toronto Blue Jays4–2Toronto Blue Jays
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