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Model picks & player props
Toronto Blue Jays
VS
Houston Astros

Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 15, 2:36AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Minute Maid Park, Houston
Indoor
Wed 5 Aug 2026, 6:10PM
20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
53.8%
Historical Hit Rate
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Houston Astros 0.5 Spread - 1st 5 Innings -175

The model graded 70 markets for Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $157 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Wed 5 Aug 2026, 6:10PM at Minute Maid Park.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win78.8%
The price says63.7%
Best price-175
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Spread - 1st 5 Innings Houston Astros 0.5 High79% chance -175
Spread Long-shot34% chance
Total Runs Lean40% chance
Total Runs Lean53% chance
Moneyline High70% chance
Total Runs High65% chance
Total Runs High60% chance
Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings High74% chance
Total Runs High73% chance
Batter - Singles × 8 props Highup to 88%
Batter - Runs Scored × 2 props Highup to 72%
Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs × 10 props Highup to 96%
Pitcher - Hits Allowed × 4 props Highup to 88%
Batter - Hits × 3 props Highup to 75%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

Toronto Blue Jays and Houston Astros last met on Wed 5 Aug 2026. The model's calls from that game are graded below. Today's board: every MLB game priced right now.

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This game is done — the model’s call CASHED
Houston Astros 0.5 · $100 returned $157

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 37 of 206 right (mlb batter home runs overs)
This bet type · last timeSep 13
Ben Rice Over 0.5
New York Mets @ New York Yankees
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $374
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Spread - 1st 5 Innings
Houston Astros
0.5
+ 19 more markets
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All 20 game markets and 50 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 57,105+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Houston AstrosSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Beat the close

Closing-line value · logged
70%

Our picks beat the closing line here

On our logged picks for this event, we beat the market's closing number 70% of the time — average closing-line value +11.6%. Closing-line value is the sharpest public measure of whether a pick had real edge.

Avg CLV +11.6%

Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Toronto Blue Jays

  • Shane Bieber SPOut
  • Rudy Martin Jr. RFOut
  • Trey Yesavage SPOut
  • Anthony Santander RFOut
  • Cody Ponce SPOut
  • Patrick Corbin SPOut
  • Jameson Taillon SPOut
  • Jonatan Clase LFOut
  • Yimi Garcia RPOut
  • Jake Bloss SPOut
  • Luis Urias 2BOut
  • Addison Barger RFOut
  • Jose Berrios SPOut
  • Bowden Francis SPOut

Probable pitcher

Jose Soriano SP

Houston Astros

  • Carlos Correa SSOut
  • Mike Burrows SPOut
  • Steven Okert RPOut
  • Brice Matthews CFOut
  • Brandon Walter SPOut
Availability updated Sep 14, 11:07PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 19 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability19 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Isaac Paredes TBR Batter - Singles
Christian Walker HOU Batter - Runs Scored
Christian Walker HOU Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs
Trey Yesavage Pitcher - Hits Allowed
Daulton Varsho TOR Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs

+ 50 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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The players are right there — Pro shows which of their lines the model backs, and how much to put on each.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineHouston AstrosNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF3.2L5 RA6.4Home L53-2vs Toronto Blue Jays L54-1Free board20-18

Houston Astros moneyline form: last five 1-4, 3.2 runs/gm.

Run LineHouston Astros run lineNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF3.2L5 RA6.4Home L53-2vs Toronto Blue Jays L54-1

Houston Astros spread form: last five 1-4, 3.2 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue JaysNo line posted

Houston Astros total runs form: last five 1-4, 3.2 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsHouston Astros team totalNo line posted
3.6runs we expect
L5 RF3.2L5 RA6.4Home L53-2vs Toronto Blue Jays L54-1

Houston Astros team total runs form: last five 1-4, 3.2 runs/gm.

Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for Toronto Blue Jays at Houston Astros — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros — recent results

Houston Astros have won 1 of their last 5 games; Toronto Blue Jays have won 3 of their last 5.

Houston Astros — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L4–14TBAway
L2–3TBAway
L1–3TBAway
W2–1PHIAway
L7–11PHIAway
Toronto Blue Jays — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W8–1BALHome
W7–3BALHome
L4–7BALHome
W4–2ATHAway
L0–2ATHAway

Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Houston Astros are scoring 4.8 runs per game (3-2) while Toronto Blue Jays are at 2.6 (4-1); Houston Astros pitchers are allowing 1.6 earned runs per game versus 1.2 for Toronto Blue Jays.

4.8
Houston Astros runs/G
2.6
Toronto Blue Jays runs/G
Last 5 gamesHouston AstrosToronto Blue Jays
Runs / game4.82.6
Hits / game7.65.4
Home runs / game1.00.2
Walks drawn / game4.01.6
Batter K / game2.62.8
Earned runs allowed / game1.61.2
Pitching K / game2.02.6
Walks allowed / game0.82.8
L5 record3-24-1

Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros — recent meetings

These two have met 6 times recently: Houston Astros won 3, Toronto Blue Jays won 3.

DateHouston AstrosToronto Blue JaysWinner
Aug 572Houston Astros
Aug 545Toronto Blue Jays
Aug 413Toronto Blue Jays
Jun 2431Houston Astros
Jun 2397Houston Astros
Jun 2224Toronto Blue Jays

Who’s out or in doubt

19 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Houston Astros
PlayerStatus
Carlos Correa SSOUT
Mike Burrows SPOUT
Steven Okert RPOUT
Brice Matthews CFOUT
Brandon Walter SPOUT
Toronto Blue Jays
PlayerStatus
Shane Bieber SPOUT
Rudy Martin Jr. RFOUT
Trey Yesavage SPOUT
Anthony Santander RFOUT
Cody Ponce SPOUT
Patrick Corbin SPOUT
Jameson Taillon SPOUT
Jonatan Clase LFOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros — model preview

Our Toronto Blue Jays at Houston Astros prediction for August 6, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On August 6, 2026 our model has run Toronto Blue Jays at Houston Astros and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays: Under 12.5 Total Runs (-500), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Cashed picks for this matchup

From the public log
DateMarketPickResult
05 Aug 26 Spread Houston Astros -1 ✓ HIT
05 Aug 26 Moneyline Houston Astros ✓ HIT
05 Aug 26 Total Runs Under 11.5 ✓ HIT
05 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Houston Astros 0.5 ✓ HIT
05 Aug 26 Total Runs Under 9.5 ✓ HIT
05 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Under 8.5 ✓ HIT
05 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Houston Astros -0.5 ✓ HIT
05 Aug 26 Spread Houston Astros -3.5 ✓ HIT
05 Aug 26 Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings Houston Astros ✓ HIT
05 Aug 26 Spread Houston Astros -1.5 ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Jays vs Astros, or as Astros vs Jays. The most recent game between them was Wednesday 5 August 2026 at Minute Maid Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. The model has recorded a hit rate of 53.8% on tracked picks between these two teams. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 28 meetings on record
Houston Astros 17–11 across the last 28 meetings · these games average 7.8 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
5 Aug 2026Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros7–2Houston Astros
4 Aug 2026Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros7–2Houston Astros
3 Aug 2026Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros1–3Toronto Blue Jays
24 Jun 2026Houston Astros @ Toronto Blue Jays1–3Houston Astros
23 Jun 2026Houston Astros @ Toronto Blue Jays7–9Houston Astros
22 Jun 2026Houston Astros @ Toronto Blue Jays4–2Toronto Blue Jays
11 Sep 2025Houston Astros @ Toronto Blue Jays6–0Toronto Blue Jays
10 Sep 2025Houston Astros @ Toronto Blue Jays2–3Houston Astros
9 Sep 2025Houston Astros @ Toronto Blue Jays4–3Toronto Blue Jays
23 Apr 2025Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros3–1Houston Astros

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 28 meetings on file.

Today's selected board

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