SYSTEM STATUS: Online WIN: WON: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers (Arizona Diamondbacks 1 @ +154) WIN: WON: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers (Arizona Diamondbacks 1.5 @ -101) WIN: WON: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers (Arizona Diamondbacks 1.5 @ -106) WIN: WON: Toronto Blue Jays @ San Diego Padres (Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 @ +162) WIN: WON: Geelong Cats @ Greater Western Sydney Giants (Greater Western Sydney Giants @ +139) WIN: WON: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers (Arizona Diamondbacks -1 @ +291) WIN: WON: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers (Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 @ +330) WIN: WON: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants (Colorado Rockies 5.5 @ +320) WIN: WON: Geelong Cats @ Greater Western Sydney Giants (Greater Western Sydney Giants @ +136) WIN: WON: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants (Colorado Rockies 5.5 @ +320) RESULT: WON: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers (Arizona Diamondbacks 1 @ +154) RESULT: WON: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers (Arizona Diamondbacks 1.5 @ -101) RESULT: WON: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers (Arizona Diamondbacks 1.5 @ -106) RESULT: WON: Toronto Blue Jays @ San Diego Padres (Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 @ +162) RESULT: WON: Geelong Cats @ Greater Western Sydney Giants (Greater Western Sydney Giants @ +139) RESULT: WON: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers (Arizona Diamondbacks -1 @ +291) RESULT: WON: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers (Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 @ +330) RESULT: WON: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants (Colorado Rockies 5.5 @ +320) RESULT: WON: Geelong Cats @ Greater Western Sydney Giants (Greater Western Sydney Giants @ +136) RESULT: WON: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants (Colorado Rockies 5.5 @ +320)
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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Daulton Varsho is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases.
On the Batter - Total Bases market the model assigns a model win probability of 77%, versus the book's implied 64%, for a model edge of +12.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 12, 7:12AM UTC
MLB

Daulton Varsho

TOR

+12.7% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Total Bases Under 1.5 -179 (1.56)
+12.7% Edge
Toronto Blue Jays @ San Diego Padres
Petco Park, San Diego
Sun 12 Jul, 8:10PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
76.8%
Implied Probability
64.1%
Model Edge
+12.7%
Predicted Value

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Total Bases76.8%64.1%1.30+12.7%

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Beat the closing line — our published picks in this player's games beat the closing line 0 of 31 times (0%), +5.5% avg CLV. Verified closing-line value.

Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games7/10

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AI Analysis

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Daulton Varsho (TOR) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-179)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Padres host the Blue Jays, all eyes should be on Daulton Varsho's performance, particularly when it comes to total bases. Over the past month, Varsho has struggled to consistently find his rhythm at the plate, managing only a handful of extra-base hits. Facing a Padres pitching staff that has been quietly effective, especially with their top-tier starters, could spell trouble for him. The Padres' bullpen has also been stellar, limiting opponents to a mere .220 batting average. Given Varsho’s recent dip in power metrics and the way San Diego’s arms are performing, it’s unlikely he’ll cross the 1.5 total bases mark today. With the game’s stakes high and Varsho needing to navigate a formidable lineup, betting on him to stay under could be a smart move. Look for him to struggle against this well-rounded pitching attack, making the 'Under' a compelling angle in this matchup.

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Pick History & Track Record

Overall Hit Rate (1 picks) 0.0% (0/1)
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
08 Jul 26 Toronto Blue Jays @ San Francisco Giants Batter - Walks 0.5 Under -714 ✗ MISS

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About This Player

Daulton Varsho (TOR) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. Across 1 settled picks, the model has hit at a rate of 0.0% (0/1). The latest model pick for Daulton Varsho is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +12.7% on this pick. Their next game is Toronto Blue Jays vs San Diego Padres on Sunday 12 July at Petco Park, San Diego. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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