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Model picks & player props
Philadelphia Phillies
VS
Cincinnati Reds

Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 26, 6:39PM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati
Outdoor
Thu 9 Jul 2026, 11:10PM
20
Game markets graded
2
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Over 11.5 Total Runs +190

The model graded 22 markets for Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $290 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Thu 9 Jul 2026, 11:10PM at Great American Ball Park.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win63.7%
The price says34.5%
Best price+190
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Total Runs Over 11.5 High64% chance +190
Total Runs High72% chance
Total Runs High79% chance
Total Runs Lean55% chance
Total Runs Lean46% chance
Total Runs High85% chance
Spread Lean46% chance
Total Runs High90% chance
Spread Long-shot37% chance
Batter - Hits × 2 props Highup to 83%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
This game is done — from the model’s graded calls on this game
Cincinnati Reds 1.5 · $100 returned $183

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 933 of 1,879 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 26
Under 4.5
Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Diego Padres
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $440
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Total Runs
Over
13.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Philadelphia Phillies

  • Derek Hill CFDay-to-day
  • Felix Reyes LFOut
  • Tanner Banks RPOut
  • Rafael Marchan COut
  • Caleb Kilian RPOut
  • Brad Keller RPOut
  • Johan Rojas CFOut
  • Adolis Garcia RFOut

Probable pitcher

Aaron Nola SP

Cincinnati Reds

  • Graham Ashcraft RPOut
  • Brandon Williamson SPOut
  • Michael Toglia 1BOut
  • Spencer Steer 1BOut
  • Hunter Greene SPOut
  • Blake Dunn CFOut

Probable pitcher

Brady Singer SP
Availability updated Aug 26, 1:45AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 14 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability14 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Alec Bohm PHI Batter - Hits
Bryce Harper PHI Batter - Hits

+ 2 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineCincinnati RedsNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF2.8L5 RA2.8Home L52-3vs Philadelphia Phillies L51-4

Cincinnati Reds moneyline form: last five 2-3, 2.8 runs/gm.

Run LineCincinnati Reds run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF2.8L5 RA2.8Home L52-3vs Philadelphia Phillies L51-4

Cincinnati Reds spread form: last five 2-3, 2.8 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Cincinnati Reds vs Philadelphia PhilliesNo line posted

Cincinnati Reds total runs form: last five 2-3, 2.8 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsCincinnati Reds team totalNo line posted
2.1runs we expect
L5 RF2.8L5 RA2.8Home L52-3vs Philadelphia Phillies L51-4

Cincinnati Reds team total runs form: last five 2-3, 2.8 runs/gm.

Philadelphia Phillies @ Cincinnati Reds — what the model found

Our model graded 22 betting markets for Philadelphia Phillies at Cincinnati Reds — 20 on the game itself and 2 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
2
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 22 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 21 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds — recent results

Cincinnati Reds have won 1 of their last 5 games; Philadelphia Phillies have won 3 of their last 5.

Cincinnati Reds — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L1–3SFAway
L0–5SFAway
W11–5ARIAway
L3–5ARIAway
L0–9ARIAway
Philadelphia Phillies — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L1–4SEAAway
L2–9SEAAway
W6–4STLHome
W12–3STLHome
W7–6STLHome

Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Cincinnati Reds are scoring 4.0 runs per game (3-2) while Philadelphia Phillies are at 3.6 (2-3); Cincinnati Reds pitchers are allowing 2.4 earned runs per game versus 4.6 for Philadelphia Phillies.

4.0
Cincinnati Reds runs/G
3.6
Philadelphia Phillies runs/G
Last 5 gamesCincinnati RedsPhiladelphia Phillies
Runs / game4.03.6
Hits / game5.25.4
Home runs / game1.01.2
Walks drawn / game2.01.8
Batter K / game4.25.2
Earned runs allowed / game2.44.6
Pitching K / game3.85.0
Walks allowed / game2.81.2
L5 record3-22-3

Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds — recent meetings

These two have met 6 times recently: Cincinnati Reds won 3, Philadelphia Phillies won 3.

DateCincinnati RedsPhiladelphia PhilliesWinner
Jul 901Philadelphia Phillies
Jul 8115Cincinnati Reds
Jul 714Philadelphia Phillies
May 2094Cincinnati Reds
May 1941Cincinnati Reds
May 1845Philadelphia Phillies

Who’s out or in doubt

14 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Cincinnati Reds
PlayerStatus
Graham Ashcraft RPOUT
Brandon Williamson SPOUT
Michael Toglia 1BOUT
Spencer Steer 1BOUT
Hunter Greene SPOUT
Blake Dunn CFOUT
Philadelphia Phillies
PlayerStatus
Derek Hill CFDAY-TO-DAY
Felix Reyes LFOUT
Tanner Banks RPOUT
Rafael Marchan COUT
Caleb Kilian RPOUT
Brad Keller RPOUT
Johan Rojas CFOUT
Adolis Garcia RFOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Philadelphia Phillies @ Cincinnati Reds — model preview

Expert analysis and top MLB betting picks for Cincinnati Reds vs Philadelphia Phillies. Featuring picks like NA props. Discover same game parlay, SGP picks, MLB parlay odds, baseball parlay.

Hunter Greene (CIN) Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-1667)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Hunter Greene for Over 3.5 in the Pitcher Strikeouts market is well supported by his recent performance data. Greene's last five overall and home games show a strong strikeout average of 7 and 7.2 respectively, significantly higher than the line of 3.5. His innings pitched and outs averages also indicate he stays in the game long enough to achieve high strikeout numbers. Even when facing the Phillies, his strikeout average remains above the line at 5.5. Furthermore, Greene is currently on a hot streak with five consecutive games hitting the over in strikeouts, including the last two at home. These factors combine to make this bet a statistically sound choice.

🔒 The other 2 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Cashed picks for this matchup

From the public log
DateMarketPickResult
09 Jul 26 Spread Cincinnati Reds +1.5 ✓ HIT
09 Jul 26 Spread Cincinnati Reds +2.5 ✓ HIT
09 Jul 26 Spread Cincinnati Reds +3.5 ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Phillies vs Reds, or as Reds vs Phillies. The most recent game between them was Thursday 9 July 2026 at Great American Ball Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 2 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Last time they played

Final scores · last 6 meetings
Even at 3–3 across the last 6 meetings
DateGameScoreWinner
9 Jul 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Cincinnati Reds0–1Philadelphia Phillies
8 Jul 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Cincinnati Reds11–5Cincinnati Reds
7 Jul 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Cincinnati Reds1–4Philadelphia Phillies
20 May 2026Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies4–9Cincinnati Reds
19 May 2026Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies1–4Cincinnati Reds
18 May 2026Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies5–4Philadelphia Phillies
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