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Model picks & player props
Philadelphia Phillies
VS
Cincinnati Reds

Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 6, 2:05PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati
Outdoor
Thu 9 Jul 2026, 11:10PM
20
Game Picks
2
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Cincinnati Reds -2.5 (Spread)
For Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds (MLB), model win probability 36.7%, fair odds 2.72, book price +450, model edge +18.5%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Thu 9 Jul 2026, 11:10PM at Great American Ball Park.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Spread
Cincinnati Reds
+2.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Cincinnati RedsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Philadelphia Phillies

  • Derek Hill CFDay-to-day
  • Andrew Painter SPDay-to-day
  • Brad Keller RPOut
  • Tanner Banks RPOut
  • Rafael Marchan COut
  • Johan Rojas CFOut
  • Adolis Garcia RFOut

Probable pitcher

Andrew Painter SP

Cincinnati Reds

  • Hunter Greene SPOut
  • Blake Dunn CFOut
  • Nick Lodolo SPOut
  • Brandon Williamson SPOut
  • Tony Santillan RPOut
  • Spencer Steer 1BOut
  • Graham Ashcraft RPOut

Probable pitcher

Rhett Lowder SP
Availability updated Aug 6, 3:32AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 14 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability14 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Alec Bohm PHI Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Bryce Harper PHI Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineCincinnati RedsNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF4.0L5 RA3.6Home L53-2vs Philadelphia Phillies L53-2

Cincinnati Reds moneyline form: last five 3-2, 4.0 runs/gm.

Run LineCincinnati Reds run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF4.0L5 RA3.6Home L53-2vs Philadelphia Phillies L53-2

Cincinnati Reds spread form: last five 3-2, 4.0 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Cincinnati Reds vs Philadelphia PhilliesNo line posted

Cincinnati Reds total runs form: last five 3-2, 4.0 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsCincinnati Reds team totalNo line posted
2.7runs we expect
L5 RF4.0L5 RA3.6Home L53-2vs Philadelphia Phillies L53-2

Cincinnati Reds team total runs form: last five 3-2, 4.0 runs/gm.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Cincinnati Reds are scoring 4.0 runs per game (3-2) while Philadelphia Phillies are at 3.6 (2-3); Cincinnati Reds pitchers are allowing 2.4 earned runs per game versus 4.6 for Philadelphia Phillies.

4.0
Cincinnati Reds runs/G
3.6
Philadelphia Phillies runs/G
Last 5 gamesCincinnati RedsPhiladelphia Phillies
Runs / game4.03.6
Hits / game5.25.4
Home runs / game1.01.2
Walks drawn / game2.01.8
Batter K / game4.25.2
Earned runs allowed / game2.44.6
Pitching K / game3.85.0
Walks allowed / game2.81.2
L5 record3-22-3

Philadelphia Phillies @ Cincinnati Reds — model preview

<p>Expert analysis and top MLB betting picks for Cincinnati Reds vs Philadelphia Phillies. Featuring picks like NA props. Discover same game parlay, SGP picks, MLB parlay odds, baseball parlay.</p>

Hunter Greene (CIN) Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-1667)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Hunter Greene for Over 3.5 in the Pitcher Strikeouts market is well supported by his recent performance data. Greene's last five overall and home games show a strong strikeout average of 7 and 7.2 respectively, significantly higher than the line of 3.5. His innings pitched and outs averages also indicate he stays in the game long enough to achieve high strikeout numbers. Even when facing the Phillies, his strikeout average remains above the line at 5.5. Furthermore, Greene is currently on a hot streak with five consecutive games hitting the over in strikeouts, including the last two at home. These factors combine to make this bet a statistically sound choice.

Cristopher Sanchez (PHI) Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-909)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Cristopher Sanchez has been consistently surpassing the strikeout line of 3.5 in his last five games. His overall strikeout average is 6.6, and even when playing away, his strikeout average is 5.4, both significantly above the line. Despite a lower performance against the Reds with a 6 strikeout average, it still exceeds the line. His innings pitched averages also indicate he's on the mound long enough to achieve these strikeouts, with an overall average of 5.1 and 5.2 when playing away. Although his performance dips slightly against the Reds (4.7 innings pitched on average), it still provides ample opportunity for strikeouts. Despite a current hit streak of zero, his past performance indicates a strong likelihood of achieving over 3.5 strikeouts.

Hunter Greene (CIN) Over 1.5 Hits Allowed (-2500)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Hunter Greene for Over 1.5 in the Pitcher Hits Allowed market is primarily supported by his recent performance data. Greene has allowed an average of 3.6 hits in his last five overall games, with a slightly lower average of 2.8 hits at home. However, against the Phillies, his hits allowed average jumps to 6, indicating that this specific opposition tends to hit well against him. This trend is further supported by his current hit streaks, with five overall and two at home. Furthermore, his innings pitched and outs averages indicate he typically stays in the game long enough to allow more hits. Considering these statistics, it's statistically likely that Greene will allow more than 1.5 hits in the upcoming game against the Phillies.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
4
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
09 Jul 26 Spread Cincinnati Reds +2.5 ✓ HIT
09 Jul 26 Spread Cincinnati Reds -3.5 ✓ HIT
09 Jul 26 Spread Cincinnati Reds +1.5 ✓ HIT
09 Jul 26 Spread Cincinnati Reds -2.5 ✓ HIT

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Phillies vs Reds, or as Reds vs Phillies. The most recent game between them was Thursday 9 July 2026 at Great American Ball Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 2 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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