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The latest Bet Better model pick for Clay Holmes is Under 3.5 on Pitcher - Strikeouts.
On Pitcher - Strikeouts, our numbers say this bet wins about 85 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 85%, implied 57%, edge +27.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.

Recent form on the board

Over 0.50 BBlanded 7 of the last 10
Over 0.50 BBlanded 7 of the last 10
Over 0.50 BBlanded 7 of the last 10

Graded from real results — only lines with recent form are shown.

Model updated Aug 25, 7:39AM UTC
MLB

Clay Holmes

NYY

+27.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Strikeouts Under 3.5 -135 (1.74) · $100→$174
+27.6% Edge
Chicago Cubs @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Chase Field, Phoenix, Arizona · Indoor
Wed 26 Aug, 1:40AM
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb total-runs unders: 905 of 1,834 right
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
85 in 100
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 85.0% · the book's price implies 57.5% · gap +27.6%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Strikeouts85.0%—57.5%1.18+27.6%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games0/5
Last 10 games0/10

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AI Analysis

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Clay Holmes (NYY) Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As the Diamondbacks host the Cubs, all eyes will be on Clay Holmes, the New York reliever stepping onto the mound. While the strikeout line is set at 3.5, recent trends suggest going under might be the smart play. Holmes has shown a dip in his strikeout rate, averaging under two strikeouts per game in his last handful of outings. The Cubs possess a patient lineup that can make life tough for even the most skilled pitchers, showcasing a high contact rate and an ability to chase fewer pitches outside the zone. With the current implied probability leaning towards the under, and given Holmes' recent struggles against teams with similar batting profiles, it’s hard to envision him racking up those four strikeouts today. In a game where the lineup’s discipline plays a critical role, betting on the under seems to be the most prudent course of action.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 2 of last 3(67%)

Recent form (last 5 games)

Clay Holmes is averaging 4.4 hits, 0.0 home runs and 0.0 RBIs per game over his last 5 games.

4.4
Hits
0.0
HR
0.0
RBI
2.2
Runs
2.6
Walks
6.8
Ks

Hit-rate ladder: SO

Clay Holmes has gone over 2.5 SO in 0% of his last 10 games, and the hit rate drops as the line rises.

o2.50%
o3.50%
o4.50%
o5.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Clay Holmes is averaging 4.4 hits per game over his last 5 and 2.0 in home games, including his recent form against SDP.

4.4
Hits · Overall
2.0
Hits · Home
0.0
Hits · vs SDP
0.0
HR · Overall
0.0
HR · Home
0.0
HR · vs SDP
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
19 Aug 26 Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs Pitcher - Hits Allowed 4.5 Under -119 ✗ MISS
14 Aug 26 St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs Pitcher - Walks 1.5 Under -123 ✓ HIT
14 Aug 26 St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs Pitcher - Hits Allowed 4.5 Under -145 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Clay Holmes (NYY) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Clay Holmes is Under 3.5 on Pitcher - Strikeouts. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +27.6% on this pick. Their next game is Chicago Cubs vs Arizona Diamondbacks on Wednesday 26 August at Chase Field, Phoenix. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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