MLB player props today: our 6 best prop picks for August 9, 2026

As the Mariners prepare to host the Rays, all eyes should be on Victor Mesa Jr. when considering the 'Under 3.5' on his hits, runs, and RBIs. Despite his undeniable talent, Vic has faced a bit of a rough patch lately, struggling to find his rhythm against right-handed pitching. With the Rays’ Tyler Glasnow on the mound, this matchup tilts even more in favor of the under. Glasnow has been a strikeout machine, boasting a 32% strikeout rate this season, which could spell trouble for Mesa. Additionally, the Mariners have struggled to string together consistent offensive outings, especially against pitchers of Glasnow's caliber. With Seattle’s lineup recently sputtering and Mesa's recent numbers dipping, the odds lean sharply towards him being held under that critical 3.5 mark. This game could turn into a pitcher's duel, making the under a compelling play for this talented young hitter.

Colt Emerson Under 0.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-145)

As the Mariners gear up to host the Rays, all eyes will be on Colt Emerson, but it might be a quieter day for the promising young slugger. Emerson has struggled to find his rhythm lately, particularly against tough left-handed pitchers, and with Tampa Bay sending out their ace who boasts a stellar strikeout rate, he could be in for a long afternoon. The Rays’ pitching staff, known for their ability to stifle opposing offenses, has been particularly effective on the road, limiting hits and runs. Emerson’s recent trend of underwhelming performances against quality pitching makes the 'Under 0.5' on his hits, runs, and RBIs a compelling wager. Combine that with the Mariners' recent struggles to produce at the plate, and it’s easy to see why this bet has strong potential. Expect Emerson to face a challenging matchup that could keep him off the scoreboard today.

Chandler Simpson (TBR) Under 1.5 Hits (-145)

As the Mariners host the Rays, all eyes will be on Chandler Simpson, but the trends suggest a quiet day at the plate for him. Simpson’s recent form has been anything but explosive; he's batting only.215 over the last month and has struggled against right-handed pitching, which is what he'll face today. The Rays’ pitching staff has been a force lately, boasting a stingy 3.30 team ERA on the road. Tampa’s ace, who’s likely to take the mound, thrives on inducing weak contact, making it tough for hitters like Simpson to find their rhythm. With the odds leaning heavily toward the under on his hits, it’s hard to envision him breaking past that 1.5 mark today. Given the Mariners' inconsistent offensive output lately, betting on Simpson to stay under seems like a savvy play as he faces tough competition in a crucial matchup.

Randy Dobnak Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-179)

As the Royals and Cubs face off, all eyes will be on Randy Dobnak, but there’s a case for taking the under on his strikeouts at 3.5. Despite his potential, Dobnak has struggled to find consistent rhythm, averaging just under two strikeouts per game in his recent outings. The Royals, with their patient approach at the plate, rank among the league leaders in avoiding strikeouts, making it tough for any pitcher to rack up K’s against them. Additionally, Dobnak's last few starts saw him facing lineups that were more aggressive, yet he still couldn't produce enough strikeouts to clear this line. Given the Royals' knack for making contact and Dobnak’s current form, it’s wise to lean toward the under here, as the dynamics of this matchup suggest a lower strikeout tally. Expect more balls in play than bats to miss, making the under a smart play in this contest.

Miguel Vargas Under 1.5 Total Bases (-169)

As the White Sox host the Guardians this Sunday, all eyes should be on Miguel Vargas and his quest for total bases. While the young slugger has shown flashes of brilliance, a closer look at his recent performance reveals a troubling trend: he’s been struggling against left-handed pitching. With the Guardians sending out one of their more reliable southpaws, Vargas might find it tough to make solid contact. Cleveland's pitching staff has quietly put together a solid stretch, limiting opponents in key situations. They’ve been especially effective on the road, boasting a lower WHIP and a strong strikeout rate that could stifle Vargas's opportunities. Combine that with Vargas's recent dip in form—he’s managed just a handful of hits in his last few games—and the under on his total bases starts to look compelling. It’s a classic case of matchup dynamics favoring the pitcher, making the under a sharp play here.

Chandler Simpson (TBR) Under 1.5 Singles (-196)

As the Mariners host the Rays, all eyes should be on Chandler Simpson. While his speed on the basepaths is undeniable, recent trends suggest he may struggle to string together hits today. Tampa Bay’s pitching staff, especially their starter, has been a brick wall against left-handed batters, limiting their hits to a mere 6.9 per game. Simpson, despite his talent, has only managed a single hit in his last three outings against similar quality pitching. With the Rays’ bullpen locking down opponents late in games, the chances of Simpson surpassing the 1.5 singles mark seem slim. Combine that with the Mariners’ recent struggles at the plate, and it paints a picture where under 1.5 singles feels like the smart play. With the odds favoring the under significantly, it’s a bet that could pay off handsomely as the tension builds in Seattle.

That is the whole read. Every prop above is our own number against the price on the board at the time we wrote this, and the price can move before you get on. Bet what you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, take a break.