On Friday 31 July 2026, Essendon Bombers play Adelaide Crows in the AFL. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Archie Roberts (Essendon) Over 20.5 Disposals, priced at -769 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Archie Roberts (Essendon) Over 20.5 Disposals (-769)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to Archie Roberts hitting the Over 20.5 disposals mark in the upcoming Essendon Bombers clash against the Adelaide Crows, the numbers are shouting one thing loud and clear - he's primed to deliver. Over his last 5 home games, Archie has been an absolute workhorse, averaging a whopping 29.6 disposals. His efficiency stands out too, rocking a solid 77.9% success rate. Plus, facing off against the Crows, he's been even more lethal, averaging 19 disposals in his last 5 encounters. With a current hit streak of 3 and a stellar hit rate, Archie is in top form. With the home crowd behind him at Marvel Stadium, expect him to rack up the possessions and comfortably clear that 20.5 line.

Will Setterfield (Essendon) Over 14.5 Disposals (-769)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking at the upcoming clash between Essendon and Adelaide, all signs point to Will Setterfield shining bright at Marvel Stadium. Setterfield's recent form at home has been nothing short of stellar, averaging 21.6 disposals over his last five games on familiar turf. With a solid 67.6% disposal efficiency and a knack for gaining crucial metres, Setterfield is poised to dominate the midfield once again. Facing the Adelaide Crows, against whom he has averaged 16 disposals in his last five encounters, Setterfield is primed to surpass the 14.5 disposal line. His consistency is evident, boasting an impressive 88.5% implied probability to hit the mark. With a current hit streak of 22 at home and an overall hit rate of 95% in his last 20 games, Setterfield is a reliable bet to rack up the possessions and deliver for punters looking to back him in the disposals market.

Archie Roberts (Essendon) Over 21.5 Disposals (-588)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to Archie Roberts hitting the Over 21.5 disposals mark in the upcoming Essendon Bombers vs. Adelaide Crows clash, the numbers are painting a compelling picture. Over his last five home games, Archie has been a midfield dynamo, averaging a whopping 29.6 disposals, showcasing his ability to find the footy consistently. His recent form at Marvel Stadium has been stellar, with averages of 20.8 kicks and 8.8 handballs per game. Additionally, his disposal efficiency sits at a solid 77.9%, indicating he makes the most of his possessions. Facing off against the Crows, whom he has historically tallied 19 disposals on average, Archie is poised to capitalize on his strong recent performances. With an implied probability of 85.5% and a model edge of 9.7%, backing Archie to go Over 21.5 disposals seems like a smart play for this matchup.

That is how our model reads Essendon Bombers v Adelaide Crows. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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