Brisbane Lions vs Essendon Bombers Prediction & Picks : Odds Analysis & Top Props

Zac Bailey is a solid bet to go over 14.5 disposals against Essendon at home. Bailey has been consistently performing well, averaging 17.2 disposals in his last five home games. Facing Essendon, he has recorded an average of 14.2 disposals in their recent matchups. With an overall average of 19.6 disposals in the last five games and a high disposalefficiency of 76.6%, Bailey is in good form. Additionally, his current hit streak and hit rate make him a reliable choice to exceed 14.5 disposals. The model's prediction of 18 disposals further supports this bet, indicating a 4.5% edge and a high implied probability of 71.4%.

Darcy Wilmot (Brisbane Lions) Over 14.5 Disposals (-667)

Darcy Wilmot is poised to excel in the Disposals Over market with a 14.5 line. His recent performance, especially in home games, showcases an average of 18 disposals, exceeding the line. Wilmot's consistency is highlighted by his high disposalefficiency of 86.3% and a strong average of 12.2 kicks per game. Facing Essendon, where his average disposals rise to 21, enhances his potential to surpass the line comfortably. With an impressive current hit streak of 29 in home games and a solid overall hit rate, Wilmot's form indicates a high likelihood of exceeding 14.5 disposals, making this a favorable bet with a model edge of 3.0%.

Jye Caldwell (Essendon) Over 19.5 Disposals (-417)

Jye Caldwell is a solid bet to go Over 19.5 disposals against Brisbane Lions. With a model prediction of 24.2 disposals and a positive edge of 1.9%, Caldwell's recent form supports this bet. In his last five away games, he averaged 23.6 disposals, exceeding the line comfortably. Additionally, Caldwell maintains a high disposalefficiency of 70.7% and averages 12.6 handballs, 11 kicks, and 290.6 metres gained in away games. Facing Brisbane, he has historically performed well, averaging 21.3 disposals in their matchups. His overall hit rate is strong, making this a favorable wager based on his consistent performance and matchup history.

Josh Dunkley (Brisbane Lions) Over 19.5 Disposals (-588)

Josh Dunkley's consistent form, especially in his last five home games averaging 24.8 disposals, makes the Over 19.5 disposals bet appealing. His overall disposals average of 25.2 further supports this pick. Dunkley's high disposalefficiency of 74.0% and impressive hit rates (5/5 at home and 14/14 overall) indicate his reliability in meeting or exceeding the line. Facing Essendon, against whom he averages 22.4 disposals in his last five matchups, Dunkley's strong contestedpossessions and metresgained stats suggest he can surpass the 19.5 mark comfortably. With a model prediction of 25.1 disposals and a positive edge of 1.4%, this bet aligns well with Dunkley's recent performances and overall consistency.

Peter Wright (Essendon) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-357)

Peter Wright is a strong bet to score anytime in the upcoming match based on his impressive recent form. With an average of 1.8 goals in his last five away games and facing an opponent where he has scored an average of 2.5 goals in their previous encounters, Wright's scoring ability is consistent. His high score involvements (4.6) and shots at goal (2.6) further support his goal-scoring potential. Despite a slightly lower goal accuracy of 41.7%, his overall goal average of 1 goal per game showcases his reliability in finding the back of the net. Considering the model's prediction of 1.1 goals for Wright and the positive edge, backing him to score anytime seems like a prudent choice.