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Model picks & player props
Boston Red Sox
VS
Toronto Blue Jays

Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 31, 3:24AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Rogers Centre, Toronto
Indoor
Thu 13 Aug 2026, 7:07PM
20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Toronto Blue Jays -2 Spread +397

The model graded 70 markets for Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a long shot. A $100 bet returns about $497 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Thu 13 Aug 2026, 7:07PM at Rogers Centre.

Our confidenceLong-shot
Chance to win25.3%
The price says21.4%
Best price+397
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Spread Toronto Blue Jays -2 Long-shot25% chance +397
Spread Long-shot22% chance
Spread Long-shot18% chance
Spread Long-shot15% chance
Moneyline Lean42% chance
Spread Long-shot11% chance
Spread Long-shot6% chance
Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings Lean41% chance
Batter - Total Bases × 6 props Highup to 87%
Pitcher - Strikeouts × 1 prop Highup to 91%
Batter - Singles × 8 props Highup to 82%
Batter - Runs Scored × 6 props Highup to 81%
Pitcher - Earned Runs × 2 props Highup to 86%
Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs × 10 props Highup to 83%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
This game is done — from the model’s graded calls on this game
Under 2.5 · $100 returned $380

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 935 of 1,976 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 29
Under 11.5
Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $130
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Spread
Toronto Blue Jays
-3.5
+ 19 more markets
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All 20 game markets and 50 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 56,376+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Toronto Blue JaysSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Toronto Blue JaysSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Toronto Blue JaysSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Toronto Blue JaysSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Toronto Blue JaysMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Toronto Blue JaysSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Toronto Blue JaysSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Toronto Blue JaysMoneyline - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Boston Red Sox

  • Willson Contreras 1BDay-to-day
  • Tanner Houck SPOut
  • Curtis Mead 3BOut
  • Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2BOut
  • Garrett Crochet SPOut
  • Masataka Yoshida DHOut
  • Justin Slaten RPOut
  • Triston Casas 1BOut
  • Zack Kelly RPOut
  • Johan Oviedo SPOut
  • Kutter Crawford SPOut

Probable pitcher

Ranger Suarez SP

Toronto Blue Jays

  • Trey Yesavage SPOut
  • Jameson Taillon SPOut
  • Josh Smith 2BOut
  • Anthony Santander RFOut
  • Jonatan Clase LFOut
  • Yimi Garcia RPOut
  • Shane Bieber SPOut
  • Joe Mantiply RPOut
  • Jake Bloss SPOut
  • Luis Urias 2BOut
  • Patrick Corbin SPOut
  • Addison Barger RFOut
  • Jose Berrios SPOut
  • Cody Ponce SPOut
  • Bowden Francis SPOut

Probable pitcher

Max Scherzer SP
Availability updated Aug 30, 9:52PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 26 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability26 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Masataka Yoshida Batter - Total Bases
Max Scherzer WSN Pitcher - Strikeouts
Masataka Yoshida Batter - Singles
Willson Contreras STL Batter - Runs Scored
Max Scherzer WSN Pitcher - Earned Runs

+ 50 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineToronto Blue JaysNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF1.0L5 RA0.4Home L52-3vs Boston Red Sox L52-3

Toronto Blue Jays moneyline form: last five 2-3, 1.0 runs/gm.

Run LineToronto Blue Jays run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF1.0L5 RA0.4Home L52-3vs Boston Red Sox L52-3

Toronto Blue Jays spread form: last five 2-3, 1.0 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red SoxNo line posted

Toronto Blue Jays total runs form: last five 2-3, 1.0 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsToronto Blue Jays team totalNo line posted
0.8runs we expect
L5 RF1.0L5 RA0.4Home L52-3vs Boston Red Sox L52-3

Toronto Blue Jays team total runs form: last five 2-3, 1.0 runs/gm.

Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays — recent results

Toronto Blue Jays have won 3 of their last 5 games; Boston Red Sox have won 2 of their last 5.

Toronto Blue Jays — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W4–3SEAHome
W8–1SEAHome
L2–13KCHome
W3–0KCHome
L3–5KCHome
Boston Red Sox — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L2–9NYYAway
W6–0NYYAway
L0–1NYYAway
L0–4MIAAway
W7–3MIAAway

Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Toronto Blue Jays are scoring 1.8 runs per game (3-2) while Boston Red Sox are at 1.2 (2-3); Toronto Blue Jays pitchers are allowing 0.8 earned runs per game versus 0.8 for Boston Red Sox.

1.8
Toronto Blue Jays runs/G
1.2
Boston Red Sox runs/G
Last 5 gamesToronto Blue JaysBoston Red Sox
Runs / game1.81.2
Hits / game2.82.6
Home runs / game0.40.0
Walks drawn / game0.81.0
Batter K / game3.41.4
Earned runs allowed / game0.80.8
Pitching K / game2.02.4
Walks allowed / game2.00.4
L5 record3-22-3

Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays — recent meetings

These two have met 10 times recently: Toronto Blue Jays won 7, Boston Red Sox won 3.

DateToronto Blue JaysBoston Red SoxWinner
Aug 1307Boston Red Sox
Aug 1264Toronto Blue Jays
Aug 1153Toronto Blue Jays
Aug 1021Toronto Blue Jays
Jul 2616Boston Red Sox
Jul 2560Toronto Blue Jays
Jul 2446Boston Red Sox
Jun 1843Toronto Blue Jays
Jun 1730Toronto Blue Jays
Jun 1661Toronto Blue Jays

Who’s out or in doubt

26 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Toronto Blue Jays
PlayerStatus
Trey Yesavage SPOUT
Jameson Taillon SPOUT
Josh Smith 2BOUT
Anthony Santander RFOUT
Jonatan Clase LFOUT
Yimi Garcia RPOUT
Shane Bieber SPOUT
Joe Mantiply RPOUT
Boston Red Sox
PlayerStatus
Willson Contreras 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Tanner Houck SPOUT
Curtis Mead 3BOUT
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2BOUT
Garrett Crochet SPOUT
Masataka Yoshida DHOUT
Justin Slaten RPOUT
Triston Casas 1BOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays — model preview

Our Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays prediction for August 13, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On August 13, 2026 our model has run Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Alejandro Kirk (TOR) Under 0.5 RBIs (-333), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Cashed picks for this matchup

From the public log
DateMarketPickResult
13 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Toronto Blue Jays 2.5 ✓ HIT
13 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Toronto Blue Jays 1.5 ✓ HIT
13 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Toronto Blue Jays 3.5 ✓ HIT
13 Aug 26 Total Runs Under 8 ✓ HIT
13 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 1 Innings Over 0.5 ✓ HIT
12 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Under 7.5 ✓ HIT
12 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Under 6.5 ✓ HIT
12 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Boston Red Sox 0.5 ✓ HIT
12 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Boston Red Sox 1.5 ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Sox vs Jays, or as Jays vs Sox. The most recent game between them was Thursday 13 August 2026 at Rogers Centre. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 60 meetings on record
Toronto Blue Jays 33–27 across the last 60 meetings · these games average 8.6 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
13 Aug 2026Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays0–7Boston Red Sox
12 Aug 2026Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays6–4Toronto Blue Jays
11 Aug 2026Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays5–3Toronto Blue Jays
10 Aug 2026Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays2–1Toronto Blue Jays
26 Jul 2026Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox6–1Boston Red Sox
25 Jul 2026Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox0–6Toronto Blue Jays
24 Jul 2026Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox6–4Boston Red Sox
18 Jun 2026Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox3–4Toronto Blue Jays
17 Jun 2026Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox0–3Toronto Blue Jays
16 Jun 2026Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox1–6Toronto Blue Jays

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 60 meetings on file.

Today's selected board

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