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Today's UFC Picks & Predictions — Free Picks for Every Fight

Free UFC picks across moneyline, method of victory, total rounds and fight props. Every pick shows how likely it is, the best price on offer, and the reasoning behind it — in plain English.

12 fights coming up, and the first pick of every fight is free

Best UFC bet today: Brunno Ferreira at Edmen Shahbazyan: Under Total Rounds 1.5 at +124, lean confidence. Edmen Shahbazyan fights Brunno Ferreira on the UFC card on Saturday 19 September 2026. 12 games on the board.

The one we'd back first · Brunno Ferreira v Edmen Shahbazyan
Brunno Ferreira at Edmen Shahbazyan: Under Total Rounds 1.5 +124
Our confidenceLean
Chance to win57.4%
$50 returns$112.00
The rest of the cardfull reasoning on each game below
Brunno Ferreira v Edmen ShahbazyanBrunno Ferreira v Edmen Shahbazyan Brunno Ferreira at Edmen Shahbazyan: Under Total Rounds 1.5 Lean57% chance +124
Robelis Despaigne v Tai TuivasaRobelis Despaigne v Tai Tuivasa Robelis Despaigne at Tai Tuivasa: Tai Tuivasa Moneyline Long-shot26% chance +545
Ryan Gandra v Ozzy DiazRyan Gandra v Ozzy Diaz Ryan Gandra at Ozzy Diaz: Ozzy Diaz Moneyline Long-shot26% chance +413
Joanderson Brito v Giga ChikadzeJoanderson Brito v Giga Chikadze Joanderson Brito at Giga Chikadze: Joanderson Brito Moneyline High82% chance -345
JooSang Yoo v Michael AswellJooSang Yoo v Michael Aswell JooSang Yoo at Michael Aswell: Joo Sang Yoo Moneyline High75% chance -250
Eduarda Moura v Casey O'NeillEduarda Moura v Casey O'Neill Eduarda Moura at Casey O'Neill: Casey O'Neill Moneyline High65% chance -179
Dooho Choi v Patricio PitbullDooho Choi v Patricio Pitbull Dooho Choi at Patricio Pitbull: Dooho Choi Spread -5.5 High71% chance -120
Joshua Van v Alexandre PantojaJoshua Van v Alexandre Pantoja Joshua Van at Alexandre Pantoja: Under Total Rounds 3.5 High67% chance -120
Mauricio Ruffy v Arman TsarukyanMauricio Ruffy v Arman Tsarukyan Mauricio Ruffy at Arman Tsarukyan: Arman Tsarukyan Spread -13.5 High67% chance -141
Sean Sharaf v Gable StevesonSean Sharaf v Gable Steveson Sean Sharaf at Gable Steveson: Over Total Rounds 1.5 Lean46% chance +354
Charles Jourdain v Marlon VeraCharles Jourdain v Marlon Vera Charles Jourdain at Marlon Vera: Marlon Vera Moneyline Lean57% chance +194
Iwo Baraniewski v Alonzo MenifieldIwo Baraniewski v Alonzo Menifield Iwo Baraniewski at Alonzo Menifield: Iwo Baraniewski Moneyline High76% chance -222
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
8 more picks on the card
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UFCBrunno Ferreira vs. Edmen Shahbazyan 2026-09-19 00:00
Brunno Ferreira Away
vs.
Home Edmen Shahbazyan
Show Picks
Brunno Ferreira at Edmen Shahbazyan: Under Total Rounds 1.5
Chance to win 57.4%
The price says 44.6%
Best price +124

Edmen Shahbazyan vs Brunno Ferreira: Under 1.5 total rounds (+124)

Odds available at BetOnline at time of publishing

Edmen Shahbazyan fights Brunno Ferreira on the UFC card on Saturday 19 September 2026. This one lands if the fight is finished inside 1.5 rounds. It was priced at +124 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $22.40 if it lands. Our model leans this way without loving it. The bet we are looking at is Under 1.5 total rounds. That is a total rounds bet. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Brunno Ferreira at Edmen Shahbazyan · Moneyline Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 59.9%
UFCRobelis Despaigne vs. Tai Tuivasa 2026-09-19 00:00
Robelis Despaigne Away
vs.
Home Tai Tuivasa
Show Picks
Robelis Despaigne at Tai Tuivasa: Tai Tuivasa Moneyline Best price on this pick: +525 at DraftKings — top of the 17 books we track (most offer +480).
Chance to win 26.5%
The price says 15.5%
Best price +545

Tai Tuivasa vs Robelis Despaigne: Tai Tuivasa to win the fight (+545)

Odds available at courtside at time of publishing

Tai Tuivasa fights Robelis Despaigne on the UFC card on Saturday 19 September 2026. This is a straight fight-winner bet, so it lands if Tai Tuivasa gets the win. It was priced at +545 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $64.50 if it lands. Our model has this one as a long shot, so treat it as a small punt. The bet we are looking at is Tai Tuivasa to win the fight. That is a fight winner bet. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

UFCRyan Gandra vs. Ozzy Diaz 2026-09-19 00:00
Ryan Gandra Away
vs.
Home Ozzy Diaz
Show Picks
Ryan Gandra at Ozzy Diaz: Ozzy Diaz Moneyline Best price on this pick: +400 at DraftKings — top of the 17 books we track (most offer +360).
Chance to win 25.6%
The price says 19.5%
Best price +413

Ozzy Diaz vs Ryan Gandra: Ozzy Diaz To Win the Fight (+413)

Odds available at courtside at time of publishing

The odds for Ozzy Diaz to win this fight are +413, which means there's a good chance for a nice payout if he pulls off the victory. Our numbers suggest Diaz, as the underdog, has a real shot against Ryan Gandra. Diaz has been known to bring a strong striking style, which could give him the upper hand if he can keep the fight standing. However, Gandra is no slouch and can be tough to deal with, making this matchup close. The age difference also plays a role, as Diaz has a bit of an advantage there. It's a competitive fight, and while we think Diaz can do it, the risk comes from how well Gandra can handle pressure.

UFCJoanderson Brito vs. Giga Chikadze 2026-09-19 00:00
Joanderson Brito Away
vs.
Home Giga Chikadze
Show Picks
Joanderson Brito at Giga Chikadze: Joanderson Brito Moneyline Best price on this pick: -385 at Sportsbet — top of the 17 books we track (most offer -400).
Chance to win 82.5%
The price says 77.5%
Best price -345

Giga Chikadze vs Joanderson Brito: Joanderson Brito to win the fight (-345)

Odds available at Betfair at time of publishing

Giga Chikadze fights Joanderson Brito on the UFC card on Saturday 19 September 2026. This is a straight fight-winner bet, so it lands if Joanderson Brito gets the win. It was priced at -345 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $12.90 if it lands. Our model likes this one a lot. The bet we are looking at is Joanderson Brito to win the fight. That is a fight winner bet. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

UFCJooSang Yoo vs. Michael Aswell 2026-09-19 00:00
JooSang Yoo Away
vs.
Home Michael Aswell
Show Picks
JooSang Yoo at Michael Aswell: Joo Sang Yoo Moneyline
Chance to win 74.8%
The price says 71.4%
Best price -250

Michael Aswell vs JooSang Yoo: Joo Sang Yoo To Win the Fight (-250)

Odds available at betanysports at time of publishing

Joo Sang Yoo has been looking strong lately, showing off his skills and resilience in the cage. He has a good chance to win this fight against Michael Aswell, who tends to struggle against fighters with Yoo's style. Yoo needs to keep the pressure on and stay sharp to secure the victory. The most concrete risk here is Aswell's ability to adapt during the fight, which can make things tricky. Still, Yoo's recent form and the way he handles opponents like Aswell give him a solid shot to win this match. It's worth considering this bet for a hopeful outcome.

UFCEduarda Moura vs. Casey O'Neill 2026-09-19 00:00
Eduarda Moura Away
vs.
Home Casey O'Neill
Show Picks
Eduarda Moura at Casey O'Neill: Casey O'Neill Moneyline Best price on this pick: -192 at Sportsbet — top of the 16 books we track (most offer -200).
Chance to win 65.4%
The price says 64.1%
Best price -179

Casey O'Neill vs Eduarda Moura: Casey O'Neill to win the fight (-179)

Odds available at hardrockbet at time of publishing

Casey O'Neill fights Eduarda Moura on the UFC card on Saturday 19 September 2026. This is a straight fight-winner bet, so it lands if Casey O'Neill gets the win. It was priced at -179 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $15.60 if it lands. Our model likes this one a lot. The bet we are looking at is Casey O'Neill to win the fight. That is a fight winner bet. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Eduarda Moura at Casey O'Neill · Total Rounds 2.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 33.7%
UFCDooho Choi vs. Patricio Pitbull 2026-09-20 00:00
Dooho Choi Away
vs.
Home Patricio Pitbull
Show Picks
Dooho Choi at Patricio Pitbull: Dooho Choi Spread -5.5
Chance to win 70.9%
The price says 54.6%
Best price -120

Patricio Pitbull vs Dooho Choi: Dooho Choi -5.5 Point Spread (-120)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Dooho Choi has a strong chance to come out on top against Patricio Pitbull, especially given his skills in striking. He'll need to keep the fight standing where he can use his quick punches and footwork to outscore Pitbull. The numbers suggest Choi has a good chance to win by more than 5.5 points, which means he might really show off his striking ability. One thing to keep in mind is that Pitbull has experience and can be tough to finish. The fight could be closer than it looks, but Choi's style seems to fit well against Pitbull. Overall, betting on Choi to win by at least 5.5 points feels like a smart pick.

Dooho Choi at Patricio Pitbull · Moneyline Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 71.4%
UFCJoshua Van vs. Alexandre Pantoja 2026-09-20 00:00
Joshua Van Away
vs.
Home Alexandre Pantoja
Show Picks
Joshua Van at Alexandre Pantoja: Under Total Rounds 3.5
Chance to win 66.9%
The price says 54.6%
Best price -120

Alexandre Pantoja vs Joshua Van: Under 3.5 total rounds (-120)

Odds available at Bovada at time of publishing

Alexandre Pantoja fights Joshua Van on the UFC card on Sunday 20 September 2026. This one lands if the fight is finished inside 3.5 rounds. It was priced at -120 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.30 if it lands. Our model likes this one a lot. The bet we are looking at is Under 3.5 total rounds. That is a total rounds bet. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Joshua Van at Alexandre Pantoja · Moneyline Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 45.0%
Joshua Van at Alexandre Pantoja · Spread 5.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 58.5%
UFCMauricio Ruffy vs. Arman Tsarukyan 2026-09-20 00:00
Mauricio Ruffy Away
vs.
Home Arman Tsarukyan
Show Picks
Mauricio Ruffy at Arman Tsarukyan: Arman Tsarukyan Spread -13.5
Chance to win 67.3%
The price says 58.5%
Best price -141

Arman Tsarukyan vs Mauricio Ruffy: Arman Tsarukyan -13.5 Point Spread (-141)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

For the bet to win tonight, Arman Tsarukyan needs to beat Mauricio Ruffy by at least 14 points. Tsarukyan has a strong advantage in skill and experience, making it likely he can control the fight and create a big gap in the score. His striking and wrestling abilities are top-notch, and he's shown he can finish fights decisively. The biggest risk here is that Ruffy might surprise everyone with his toughness and durability. Still, considering Tsarukyan's form and the estimated final margin, he seems ready to dominate this matchup. With a good chance of coming out on top, this bet feels promising for tonight.

Mauricio Ruffy at Arman Tsarukyan · Moneyline Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 26.0%
UFCSean Sharaf vs. Gable Steveson 2026-09-20 00:00
Sean Sharaf Away
vs.
Home Gable Steveson
Show Picks
Sean Sharaf at Gable Steveson: Over Total Rounds 1.5
Chance to win 45.6%
The price says 22.0%
Best price +354

Gable Steveson vs Sean Sharaf: Over 1.5 total rounds (+354)

Odds available at BetOnline at time of publishing

Gable Steveson fights Sean Sharaf on the UFC card on Sunday 20 September 2026. This one lands if the fight is still going after 1.5 rounds. It was priced at +354 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $45.40 if it lands. Our model has this one as a long shot, so treat it as a small punt. The bet we are looking at is Over 1.5 total rounds. That is a total rounds bet. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Sean Sharaf at Gable Steveson · Moneyline Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 7.7%
UFCCharles Jourdain vs. Marlon Vera 2026-09-20 00:00
Charles Jourdain Away
vs.
Home Marlon Vera
Show Picks
Charles Jourdain at Marlon Vera: Marlon Vera Moneyline Best price on this pick: +190 at William Hill — top of the 17 books we track (most offer +188).
Chance to win 57.2%
The price says 34.0%
Best price +194

Marlon Vera vs Charles Jourdain: Marlon Vera to win the fight (+194)

Odds available at courtside at time of publishing

Marlon Vera fights Charles Jourdain on the UFC card on Sunday 20 September 2026. This is a straight fight-winner bet, so it lands if Marlon Vera gets the win. It was priced at +194 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $29.40 if it lands. Our model leans this way without loving it. The bet we are looking at is Marlon Vera to win the fight. That is a fight winner bet. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

UFCIwo Baraniewski vs. Alonzo Menifield 2026-09-20 00:00
Iwo Baraniewski Away
vs.
Home Alonzo Menifield
Show Picks
Iwo Baraniewski at Alonzo Menifield: Iwo Baraniewski Moneyline Best price on this pick: -227 at Unibet — top of the 18 books we track (most offer -233).
Chance to win 76.1%
The price says 69.0%
Best price -222

Alonzo Menifield vs Iwo Baraniewski: Iwo Baraniewski to win the fight (-222)

Odds available at Betfair at time of publishing

Alonzo Menifield fights Iwo Baraniewski on the UFC card on Sunday 20 September 2026. This is a straight fight-winner bet, so it lands if Iwo Baraniewski gets the win. It was priced at -222 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $14.50 if it lands. Our model likes this one a lot. The bet we are looking at is Iwo Baraniewski to win the fight. That is a fight winner bet. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Iwo Baraniewski at Alonzo Menifield · Spread 7.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 67.1%

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Quick answer

What are UFC picks?

UFC picks are model-generated predictions for UFC betting markets including moneyline (winner), method of victory, total rounds and fight props. Bet Better makes its picks with a model that works out how often each result happens, compares that to the bookmakers' prices, and lists the bets where the price looks too generous, with the reasoning written in plain English on every pick.

What you get on this page

Every upcoming UFC game with predictions across all major markets. Expand any game to see picks ranked strongest first, with probability, best odds, and the model's full reasoning. For player markets, jump to Props.

Probability Model

The model's estimated chance the outcome wins. A probability of 65% means the model thinks it wins 65 times in 100 equivalent scenarios.

Edge Value

The gap between model probability and the bookmaker's chance the price suggests from odds. A pick means the model thinks the true chance is higher than the price suggests.

Best Odds Market

The top available decimal odds at the time of calculation. Odds move — always verify at your sportsbook before placing a bet.

UFC pick types — what's on this page?

Market reference
Market What it means Best used for
Moneyline Which fighter wins the bout outright, by any method. Simple single bet or a low-risk multi leg.
Method of Victory How a fighter wins — KO/TKO, Submission or Decision. Clear stylistic mismatches where the finish is predictable.
Total Rounds Over or under a set number of rounds. Finishing rates, durability, cardio and pace trends.
Fight Props Go the distance, round betting and method combinations. Exploit style edges, finishing tendencies or recent form streaks.

How to read UFC picks in 4 steps

  1. Find a game. Games are listed in chronological order. Tap "Show Picks" to expand markets and reasoning for that matchup.
  2. Check model probability. This is the model's estimated chance the outcome wins. Compare it against the chance suggested by odds to judge value yourself.
  3. Read the gap. A pick is stronger when the model's chance is clearly higher than the bookmaker's price suggests. The bigger that gap, the more the price is in your favour.
  4. Verify best odds. Odds displayed are a snapshot — always confirm at your sportsbook before placing. Line shopping across books on a strong pick makes a real difference to your long-run results.
Note: This page shows all model-generated UFC picks — the strongest plays are sorted to the top of each game. All betting involves risk — always bet within your limits.
Data first

The model's chance, a value call, and best odds are shown for every pick — so you judge each selection on numbers rather than feel.

Monte Carlo models

20,000+ simulations per game estimate true outcome probabilities across every major UFC market, updated as odds move daily.

Responsible betting

Picks are informational only. Betting involves risk and variance. Use stake limits and only wager what you can afford to lose.

UFC Picks FAQ

Quick answers
What are UFC picks?

UFC picks are model-generated predictions for UFC betting markets including moneyline, method of victory, total rounds and fight props. Bet Better makes its picks with a model that works out how often each result happens, compares that to the bookmakers' prices, and lists the bets where the price looks too generous, with the reasoning written in plain English on every pick.

What is the difference between UFC picks and UFC best bets?

UFC Picks shows the full set of model-generated predictions across every market for all upcoming games. The strongest plays are sorted to the top of each game's list.

What types of UFC picks are available?

The model generates picks across four major market types: moneyline (match winner), method of victory (KO/TKO, Submission or Decision), total rounds (over/under a set number of rounds), and fight props (go the distance, round betting and method combinations). Fight markets and prop markets are displayed together within each bout, ranked so the strongest picks surface first.

How often are UFC picks updated?

Picks are updated daily and re-run whenever bookmaker odds move significantly. As game time approaches, market liquidity increases and line movement can change the numbers on a pick. Between rounds or when no upcoming games qualify, the page displays a notification and picks return automatically once new market data is available.

What makes something a pick here?

A pick happens when the model's number and the bookmaker's price disagree: the model works out how likely the result really is, and when that chance is clearly higher than the price gives credit for, the gap is what makes it a pick. The bigger the gap, the stronger the pick — over many bets, not as a guarantee on any single one.

Can I use UFC picks as legs in multi bets?

Yes — individual picks can be combined as legs in a multi or same game multi. However, risk compounds with every leg added, so starting with 2–3 high-confidence selections is more efficient than building large multis around marginal picks. For structured multi recommendations with a combined chance shown, use the UFC Multis page.

Does Bet Better guarantee UFC picks will win?

No. UFC picks are statistical predictions intended to help inform betting decisions — no outcome is ever guaranteed. All betting involves variance and risk; even high-confidence selections lose a proportion of the time. If gambling is affecting your health or finances, contact the National Gambling Helpline on 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.

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