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Today's UFC Picks & Predictions — Free Picks for Every Fight

Every UFC fight coming up, graded and ranked best first. All 9 are below, top pick free.

9 fights coming up, and the first pick of every fight is free

Best UFC bet today: Leon Shahbazyan at Niko Price: Over Total Rounds 1.5 at +185, lean confidence. Niko Price fights Leon Shahbazyan on the UFC card on Sunday 11 October 2026. 9 games on the board.

UFC predictions for Sunday, every fight

The one we'd back first · Leon Shahbazyan v Niko Price
Leon Shahbazyan at Niko Price: Over Total Rounds 1.5 +185
Our confidenceLean
Chance to win43.8%
$50 returns$142.50
The rest of the cardfull reasoning on each game below
Leon Shahbazyan v Niko PriceLeon Shahbazyan v Niko Price Leon Shahbazyan at Niko Price: Over Total Rounds 1.5 Lean44% chance +185
Christian Leroy Duncan v Brendan AllenChristian Leroy Duncan v Brendan Allen Christian Leroy Duncan at Brendan Allen: Under Total Rounds 3.5 Lean49% chance +124
Matheus Camilo v Jai HerbertMatheus Camilo v Jai Herbert Matheus Camilo at Jai Herbert: Jai Herbert Moneyline Long-shot39% chance +170
Julius Walker v Gerald MeerschaertJulius Walker v Gerald Meerschaert Julius Walker at Gerald Meerschaert: Gerald Meerschaert Moneyline Long-shot34% chance +236
Malcolm Wellmaker v Otari TanziloviMalcolm Wellmaker v Otari Tanzilovi Malcolm Wellmaker at Otari Tanzilovi: Otari Tanzilovi Moneyline Long-shot34% chance +194
RJ Harris v Allen Frye Jr.RJ Harris v Allen Frye Jr. RJ Harris at Allen Frye Jr.: Under Total Rounds 1.5 Lean44% chance -106
Ernesta Kareckaite v Melissa GattoErnesta Kareckaite v Melissa Gatto Ernesta Kareckaite at Melissa Gatto: Under Total Rounds 2.5 Long-shot30% chance +273
Francisco Prado v Ismael BonfimFrancisco Prado v Ismael Bonfim Francisco Prado at Ismael Bonfim: Francisco Prado Moneyline Lean40% chance +105
Kai Kamaka III v Andre FiliKai Kamaka III v Andre Fili Kai Kamaka III at Andre Fili: Kai Kamaka Moneyline Long-shot37% chance +133
Leon Shahbazyan v Niko PriceLeon Shahbazyan v Niko Price Moneyline Lean47% chance —
Christian Leroy Duncan v Brendan AllenChristian Leroy Duncan v Brendan Allen Moneyline Lean40% chance —
Malcolm Wellmaker v Otari TanziloviMalcolm Wellmaker v Otari Tanzilovi Total Rounds 2.5 Lean43% chance —
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
5 more picks on the card
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UFC • Leon Shahbazyan vs. Niko Price 2026-10-11 00:00 •
Leon Shahbazyan Away
vs.
Home Niko Price
Show Picks
Leon Shahbazyan at Niko Price: Over Total Rounds 1.5
Chance to win 43.8%
The price says 35.1%
Best price +185

Niko Price vs Leon Shahbazyan: Over 1.5 total rounds (+185)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Niko Price fights Leon Shahbazyan on the UFC card on Sunday 11 October 2026. This one lands if the fight is still going after 1.5 rounds. It was priced at +185 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $28.50 if it lands. Our model leans this way without loving it. The bet we are looking at is Over 1.5 total rounds. That is a total rounds bet. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Leon Shahbazyan at Niko Price · Moneyline Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 59.2%
UFC • Christian Leroy Duncan vs. Brendan Allen 2026-10-11 00:00 •
Christian Leroy Duncan Away
vs.
Home Brendan Allen
Show Picks
Christian Leroy Duncan at Brendan Allen: Under Total Rounds 3.5
Chance to win 49.0%
The price says 44.6%
Best price +124

Brendan Allen vs Christian Leroy Duncan: Under 3.5 Total Rounds (+124)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Brendan Allen and Christian Leroy Duncan are set to clash in the Octagon, and it looks like this fight could be shorter than many expect. Both fighters are known for their finishing skills, with Allen often looking to take the fight to the ground and Duncan preferring to strike. With Allen's durability being slightly lower, he might get caught if he tries to stand and trade too much, which could lead to an early finish. Our numbers suggest there's a good chance this fight will wrap up before the fourth round. With a combined total expected at about two rounds, betting on under 3.5 rounds seems appealing. The biggest risk here is that both fighters could be cautious, which might drag the fight out longer than anticipated. But given their styles, we think under 3.5 rounds is a solid pick.

Christian Leroy Duncan at Brendan Allen · Moneyline Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 44.6%
UFC • Matheus Camilo vs. Jai Herbert 2026-10-11 00:00 •
Matheus Camilo Away
vs.
Home Jai Herbert
Show Picks
Matheus Camilo at Jai Herbert: Jai Herbert Moneyline
Chance to win 39.1%
The price says 37.0%
Best price +170

Jai Herbert vs Matheus Camilo: Jai Herbert to win the fight (+170)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Jai Herbert fights Matheus Camilo on the UFC card on Sunday 11 October 2026. This is a straight fight-winner bet, so it lands if Jai Herbert gets the win. It was priced at +170 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $27 if it lands. Our model has this one as a long shot, so treat it as a small punt. The bet we are looking at is Jai Herbert to win the fight. That is a fight winner bet. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

UFC • Julius Walker vs. Gerald Meerschaert 2026-10-11 00:00 •
Julius Walker Away
vs.
Home Gerald Meerschaert
Show Picks
Julius Walker at Gerald Meerschaert: Gerald Meerschaert Moneyline
Chance to win 33.7%
The price says 29.8%
Best price +236

Gerald Meerschaert vs Julius Walker: Gerald Meerschaert to win the fight (+236)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Gerald Meerschaert fights Julius Walker on the UFC card on Sunday 11 October 2026. This is a straight fight-winner bet, so it lands if Gerald Meerschaert gets the win. It was priced at +236 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $33.60 if it lands. Our model has this one as a long shot, so treat it as a small punt. The bet we are looking at is Gerald Meerschaert to win the fight. That is a fight winner bet. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

UFC • Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Otari Tanzilovi 2026-10-11 00:00 •
Malcolm Wellmaker Away
vs.
Home Otari Tanzilovi
Show Picks
Malcolm Wellmaker at Otari Tanzilovi: Otari Tanzilovi Moneyline
Chance to win 34.4%
The price says 34.0%
Best price +194

Otari Tanzilovi vs Malcolm Wellmaker: Otari Tanzilovi to win the fight (+194)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Otari Tanzilovi fights Malcolm Wellmaker on the UFC card on Sunday 11 October 2026. This is a straight fight-winner bet, so it lands if Otari Tanzilovi gets the win. It was priced at +194 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $29.40 if it lands. Our model has this one as a long shot, so treat it as a small punt. The bet we are looking at is Otari Tanzilovi to win the fight. That is a fight winner bet. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Malcolm Wellmaker at Otari Tanzilovi · Total Rounds 2.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 51.5%
UFC • RJ Harris vs. Allen Frye Jr. 2026-10-11 00:00 •
RJ Harris Away
vs.
Home Allen Frye Jr.
Show Picks
RJ Harris at Allen Frye Jr.: Under Total Rounds 1.5
Chance to win 44.4%
The price says 51.5%
Best price -106

Allen Frye Jr. vs RJ Harris: Under 1.5 Total Rounds (-106)

Odds correct at time of publishing

This fight between Allen Frye Jr. and RJ Harris is likely to end quickly. Both fighters have shown they can finish fights early, and our numbers suggest they might combine for less than one round. With this matchup being so closely rated, it makes sense to bet on fewer rounds. Frye Jr. tends to be aggressive, looking for early knockouts, while Harris also knows how to capitalize on openings fast. The biggest risk here is that both fighters could surprise us and make it past the first round. Still, everything points to a quick night in the cage.

RJ Harris at Allen Frye Jr. · Moneyline Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 27.4%
UFC • Ernesta Kareckaite vs. Melissa Gatto 2026-10-11 00:00 •
Ernesta Kareckaite Away
vs.
Home Melissa Gatto
Show Picks
Ernesta Kareckaite at Melissa Gatto: Under Total Rounds 2.5
Chance to win 29.5%
The price says 26.8%
Best price +273

Melissa Gatto vs Ernesta Kareckaite: Under 2.5 total rounds (+273)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Melissa Gatto fights Ernesta Kareckaite on the UFC card on Sunday 11 October 2026. This one lands if the fight is finished inside 2.5 rounds. It was priced at +273 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $37.30 if it lands. Our model has this one as a long shot, so treat it as a small punt. The bet we are looking at is Under 2.5 total rounds. That is a total rounds bet. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Ernesta Kareckaite at Melissa Gatto · Moneyline Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Chance to win
The price says 46.5%
UFC • Francisco Prado vs. Ismael Bonfim 2026-10-11 00:00 •
Francisco Prado Away
vs.
Home Ismael Bonfim
Show Picks
Francisco Prado at Ismael Bonfim: Francisco Prado Moneyline
Chance to win 40.3%
The price says 48.8%
Best price +105

Ismael Bonfim vs Francisco Prado: Francisco Prado to win the fight (+105)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Ismael Bonfim fights Francisco Prado on the UFC card on Sunday 11 October 2026. This is a straight fight-winner bet, so it lands if Francisco Prado gets the win. It was priced at +105 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $20.50 if it lands. Our model has this one as a long shot, so treat it as a small punt. The bet we are looking at is Francisco Prado to win the fight. That is a fight winner bet. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

UFC • Kai Kamaka III vs. Andre Fili 2026-10-11 00:00 •
Kai Kamaka III Away
vs.
Home Andre Fili
Show Picks
Kai Kamaka III at Andre Fili: Kai Kamaka Moneyline
Chance to win 36.6%
The price says 42.9%
Best price +133

Andre Fili vs Kai Kamaka III: Kai Kamaka to win the fight (+133)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Andre Fili fights Kai Kamaka III on the UFC card on Sunday 11 October 2026. This is a straight fight-winner bet, so it lands if Kai Kamaka gets the win. It was priced at +133 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $23.30 if it lands. Our model has this one as a long shot, so treat it as a small punt. The bet we are looking at is Kai Kamaka to win the fight. That is a fight winner bet. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

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Quick answer

What are UFC picks?

UFC picks are model-generated predictions for UFC betting markets including moneyline (winner), method of victory, total rounds and fight props. Bet Better makes its picks with a model that works out how often each result happens, compares that to the bookmakers' prices, and lists the bets where the price looks too generous, with the reasoning written in plain English on every pick.

What you get on this page

Every upcoming UFC game with predictions across all major markets. Expand any game to see picks ranked strongest first, with probability, best odds, and the model's full reasoning. For player markets, jump to Props.

Probability Model

The model's estimated chance the outcome wins. A probability of 65% means the model thinks it wins 65 times in 100 equivalent scenarios.

Edge Value

The gap between model probability and the bookmaker's chance the price suggests from odds. A pick means the model thinks the true chance is higher than the price suggests.

Best Odds Market

The top available decimal odds at the time of calculation. Odds move — always verify at your sportsbook before placing a bet.

UFC pick types — what's on this page?

Market reference
Market What it means Best used for
Moneyline Which fighter wins the bout outright, by any method. Simple single bet or a low-risk multi leg.
Method of Victory How a fighter wins — KO/TKO, Submission or Decision. Clear stylistic mismatches where the finish is predictable.
Total Rounds Over or under a set number of rounds. Finishing rates, durability, cardio and pace trends.
Fight Props Go the distance, round betting and method combinations. Exploit style edges, finishing tendencies or recent form streaks.

How to read UFC picks in 4 steps

  1. Find a game. Games are listed in chronological order. Tap "Show Picks" to expand markets and reasoning for that matchup.
  2. Check model probability. This is the model's estimated chance the outcome wins. Compare it against the chance suggested by odds to judge value yourself.
  3. Read the gap. A pick is stronger when the model's chance is clearly higher than the bookmaker's price suggests. The bigger that gap, the more the price is in your favour.
  4. Verify best odds. Odds displayed are a snapshot — always confirm at your sportsbook before placing. Line shopping across books on a strong pick makes a real difference to your long-run results.
Note: This page shows all model-generated UFC picks — the strongest plays are sorted to the top of each game. All betting involves risk — always bet within your limits.
Data first

The model's chance, a value call, and best odds are shown for every pick — so you judge each selection on numbers rather than feel.

Monte Carlo models

20,000+ simulations per game estimate true outcome probabilities across every major UFC market, updated as odds move daily.

Responsible betting

Picks are informational only. Betting involves risk and variance. Use stake limits and only wager what you can afford to lose.

UFC Picks FAQ

Quick answers
What are UFC picks?

UFC picks are our model's call on which side to back in a UFC fight. The model reads past results and the current bookmaker prices, then names the side it rates best and says why in plain words.

What is the difference between UFC picks and UFC best bets?

This page is the full list, and best bets is the short list. Picks cover every UFC fight on the card across every market, while best bets keeps only the ones the model rates strongest that day.

What types of UFC picks are available?

We post UFC picks on who wins the fight, how the fight ends, and whether it goes the distance. Game and player markets sit together inside each match, with the strongest pick at the top.

How often are UFC picks updated?

They refresh through the day, and again whenever team news or the bookmaker prices move. Later prices carry more information, so the list you see close to start time is the one to trust.

What makes something a pick here?

A pick is named when our model rates a side better than the bookmaker's price says. The wider that gap, the higher the confidence we show, and confidence is a lean over a long run of bets, never a promise on one game.

Can I use UFC picks as legs in multi bets?

Yes, any pick on this page can be a leg in a multi. Each extra leg makes the whole bet harder to land, so two or three strong legs beat a long list. For structured multi recommendations with a combined chance shown, use the UFC Multis page.

Does Bet Better guarantee UFC picks will win?

No, and nobody can. UFC picks are our best read of what is likely, and good picks still lose, so only ever stake money you can afford to lose. If gambling is affecting your health or finances, contact the National Gambling Helpline on 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.

What time do UFC picks come out?

As soon as the day's fights and prices are up. The list is rebuilt several times a day, and again close to start time when team news and prices move, so the version you see nearest kick-off is the one to read. Fight cards are mostly weekly, so the page fills up in the days before an event.

Do you pick every UFC fight?

No. We only name a side when our model likes it more than the price suggests. Some fights get nothing at all, and that is on purpose - a quiet day here means there was nothing worth backing, not that something is broken.

What does HIGH confidence mean?

We say it in words, not numbers. HIGH means our model likes the pick the most. LEAN means it likes it, but less. LONG-SHOT means a big price that wins less often and pays more when it lands. Confidence is how it should go over a long run of bets, never a promise on one fight.

Do I have to pay to see the UFC picks?

The first pick in every fight is free to read, with no signup. The rest unlock with a subscription. Either way every pick we publish is graded in public, wins and losses, on our results page.

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