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Model picks & player props
Cleveland Guardians
VS
Detroit Tigers

Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 1:10PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Comerica Park, Detroit
Outdoor
Sun 25 May 2025, 3:35PM
12
Game Picks
4
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Over 3.5 (Team Total Runs)
For Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers (MLB), model win probability 83.6%, fair odds 1.20, book price -185, model edge +18.6%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Sun 25 May 2025, 3:35PM at Comerica Park.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Team Total Runs
Over
2.5
+ 11 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Cleveland Guardians

  • Angel Martinez LFOut
  • Jose Ramirez 3BOut
  • Tim Herrin RPOut

Probable pitcher

Tanner Bibee SP

Detroit Tigers

  • Kerry Carpenter RFDay-to-day
  • Javier Baez SSOut
  • Jackson Jobe SPOut
  • Casey Mize SPDay-to-day
  • Will Vest RPOut
  • Bailey Horn RPOut
  • Burch Smith RPOut
  • Justin Verlander SPOut
  • Wenceel Perez RFOut
  • Parker Meadows CFOut
  • Trey Sweeney SSOut
  • Brant Hurter RPOut
  • Reese Olson SPOut

Probable pitcher

Jack Flaherty SP
Availability updated Jul 21, 5:08AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 16 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability16 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Logan Allen CLE Pitcher - Strikeouts 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Tarik Skubal DET Pitcher - Hits Allowed 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Logan Allen CLE Pitcher - Hits Allowed 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Logan Allen CLE Pitcher - Walks 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineDetroit TigersNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF2.6L5 RA1.8Home L53-2vs Cleveland Guardians L53-2

Detroit Tigers moneyline form: last five 2-3, 2.6 runs/gm.

Run LineDetroit Tigers run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF2.6L5 RA1.8Home L53-2vs Cleveland Guardians L53-2ATS5-6

Detroit Tigers spread form: last five 2-3, 2.6 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland GuardiansNo line posted

Detroit Tigers total runs form: last five 2-3, 2.6 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsDetroit Tigers team totalNo line posted
3.0implied team total
L5 RF2.6L5 RA1.8Home L53-2vs Cleveland Guardians L53-2

Detroit Tigers team total runs form: last five 2-3, 2.6 runs/gm.

Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Detroit Tigers are scoring 2.8 runs per game (3-2) while Cleveland Guardians are at 3.8 (2-3); Detroit Tigers pitchers are allowing 1.2 earned runs per game versus 3.4 for Cleveland Guardians.

2.8
Detroit Tigers runs/G
3.8
Cleveland Guardians runs/G
Last 5 gamesDetroit TigersCleveland Guardians
Runs / game2.83.8
Hits / game7.06.6
Home runs / game0.40.6
Walks drawn / game2.22.4
Batter K / game5.24.2
Earned runs allowed / game1.23.4
Pitching K / game5.49.8
Walks allowed / game1.43.0
L5 record3-22-3

Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers — model preview

<p>Latest MLB betting preview: Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians. Get predictions and top picks. Includes analysis on key players like Steven Kwan. Keywords: MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians stats and odds.</p>

Steven Kwan (CLE) Over 0.5 Hits (-270)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Steven Kwan's recent performance makes this bet a strong choice. Kwan's overall average hits over the last five games is 1.8, well above the line of 0.5. Even when playing away, his average hits stay at 1.2, still well above the line. This suggests that the change in location does not significantly impact his performance. Additionally, his current hit streak is at six games overall and four games away, indicating a consistent level of performance. Even when facing the Detroit Tigers, his average hits are 0.6, slightly above the line. Therefore, based on Kwan's recent performance and consistency, the bet on over 0.5 hits is statistically justified.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers in the MLB. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Sunday 25 May 2025 at Comerica Park. The model has generated 12 game picks and 4 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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