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Model picks & player props
Cleveland Guardians
VS
Detroit Tigers

Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 10, 8:38PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Comerica Park, Detroit
Outdoor
Tue 11 Aug 2026, 10:40PM
16
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: Cleveland Guardians (Moneyline)
The model graded 16 markets for Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — GOOD confidence. A $100 bet returns about $205 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 67.2%, fair odds 1.49, book price +105, model edge +18.4%. Tip-off Tue 11 Aug 2026, 10:40PM at Comerica Park.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 546 of 996 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 10
Under 9.5
Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres
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Game picks

+EV edge in green
Moneyline
Cleveland Guardians
+ 15 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Cleveland GuardiansMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cleveland GuardiansSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cleveland GuardiansSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Cleveland Guardians

  • Slade Cecconi SPOut
  • Shawn Armstrong RPOut

Detroit Tigers

  • Kerry Carpenter RFOut
  • Brant Hurter RPOut
  • Justin Verlander SPOut
  • Wenceel Perez RFOut
  • Will Vest RPOut
  • Matt Vierling CFOut
  • Jack Flaherty SPOut
  • Burch Smith RPOut
  • Bailey Horn RPOut
  • Parker Meadows CFOut
  • Trey Sweeney SSOut
  • Reese Olson SPOut
Availability updated Aug 9, 7:49PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 14 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability14 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

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Betting angles

3 markets live
MoneylineCleveland Guardians to win+105
67%model win %
3-2L5 record
L5 RF3.2L5 RA2.4Away L55-0vs Detroit Tigers L55-0Free board12-10

Cleveland Guardians moneyline vs Detroit Tigers is live and our model makes it 67% (HIGH); L5 record 3-2.

Run LineCleveland Guardians run line-1.5 +168
55%cover %
-2.1proj. margin
L5 RF3.2L5 RA2.4Away L55-0vs Detroit Tigers L55-0

Cleveland Guardians spread vs Detroit Tigers is live and our model makes it 55% (LEAN); proj. margin -2.1.

Total RunsGame total · Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland GuardiansUnder 8.5 -105
65%under %
6.7proj. runs
L5 RF1.2L5 RA0.4Home L54-1vs Cleveland Guardians L51-4

Detroit Tigers total runs vs Cleveland Guardians is live and our model makes it 65% (HIGH); proj. runs 6.7.

Team Total RunsDetroit Tigers team totalNo line posted
1.8runs we expect
L5 RF1.2L5 RA0.4Home L54-1vs Cleveland Guardians L51-4

Detroit Tigers team total runs form: last five 2-3, 1.2 runs/gm.

Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers — what the model found

Our model graded 16 betting markets for Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers — 16 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

16
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 16 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 15 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers — recent results

Detroit Tigers have won 3 of their last 5 games; Cleveland Guardians have won 1 of their last 5.

Detroit Tigers — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W3–1SFAway
L2–5SFAway
W8–0SFAway
L2–4SEAAway
W11–0SEAAway
Cleveland Guardians — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L3–5CHWAway
L3–6CHWAway
W8–2CHWAway
L6–13NYMHome
L5–6NYMHome

Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Detroit Tigers are scoring 2.8 runs per game (3-2) while Cleveland Guardians are at 3.8 (2-3); Detroit Tigers pitchers are allowing 1.2 earned runs per game versus 3.4 for Cleveland Guardians.

2.8
Detroit Tigers runs/G
3.8
Cleveland Guardians runs/G
Last 5 gamesDetroit TigersCleveland Guardians
Runs / game2.83.8
Hits / game7.06.6
Home runs / game0.40.6
Walks drawn / game2.22.4
Batter K / game5.24.2
Earned runs allowed / game1.23.4
Pitching K / game5.49.8
Walks allowed / game1.43.0
L5 record3-22-3

Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers — recent meetings

These two have met 2 times recently: Detroit Tigers won 0, Cleveland Guardians won 2.

DateDetroit TigersCleveland GuardiansWinner
Jun 1313Cleveland Guardians
Jun 1223Cleveland Guardians

Who’s out or in doubt

14 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Detroit Tigers
PlayerStatus
Kerry Carpenter RFOUT
Brant Hurter RPOUT
Justin Verlander SPOUT
Wenceel Perez RFOUT
Will Vest RPOUT
Matt Vierling CFOUT
Jack Flaherty SPOUT
Burch Smith RPOUT
Cleveland Guardians
PlayerStatus
Slade Cecconi SPOUT
Shawn Armstrong RPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Guardians vs Tigers, or as Tigers vs Guardians. The next scheduled game is Tuesday 11 August 2026 at Comerica Park. The model has generated 16 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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