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The latest Bet Better model pick for Caleb Windsor is Over 10.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 89%, versus the book's implied 88%, for a model edge of +0.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 3:37PM UTC
AFL

Caleb Windsor

Melbourne

+0.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 10.5 -769 (1.13) · $100→$113
+0.3% Edge
Fremantle Dockers @ Melbourne Demons
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 8 Aug, 3:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Model Probability
88.7%
Implied Probability
88.5%
Model Edge
+0.3%
Predicted Value
16.5 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals88.7%88.5%1.13+0.3%

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AI Analysis

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Caleb Windsor (Melbourne) Over 10.5 Disposals (-769)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to Caleb Windsor hitting the over on disposals, the numbers paint a promising picture. In his last five home games, he's been an absolute workhorse, averaging a stellar 15.8 disposals, comfortably exceeding the 10.5 mark. His recent form against Fremantle also bodes well, with an average of 12.5 disposals in his last five matchups against them. Plus, Windsor's current hot streak with three consecutive hits in his bag indicates he's in fine touch. His ability to find space and impact the game is evident in his averages of 9.4 uncontested possessions and 315.4 metres gained at home. With his knack for intercepts and efficient disposal, backing Windsor to surpass 10.5 disposals at the MCG looks like a solid bet for this clash against the Dockers.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 4 of last 5(80%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
14.1avg disposals recent
Season best25
Disposals last 10avg 14.1 · hi 25 · lo 6
13892110162518156

Caleb Windsor has a disposals high of 25 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
08 Aug 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 10.5 Over -769 ✓ HIT
08 Aug 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 11.5 Over -500 ✓ HIT
08 Aug 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 12.5 Over -333 ✓ HIT
08 Aug 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Melbourne Demons Disposals Pending
02 Aug 26 Melbourne Demons @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals Pending
02 Aug 26 Melbourne Demons @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Caleb Windsor (Melbourne) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Caleb Windsor is Over 10.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.3% on this pick. Their next game is Fremantle Dockers vs Melbourne Demons on Saturday 8 August at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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