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The latest Bet Better model pick for Caleb Windsor is Over 11.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 59 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 59%, implied 78%, edge +2.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 30, 5:20PM UTC
AFL

Caleb Windsor

Melbourne

+2.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 11.5 -357 (1.28) · $100→$128
+2.5% Edge
Carlton Blues @ Melbourne Demons
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 29 Aug, 9:35AM
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Our call
GOOD confidence
How often this wins
81 in 100
Predicted
15.7 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 80.6% · the book's price implies 78.1% · gap +2.5%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals80.6%59.0%78.1%1.69+2.5%

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AI Analysis

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Caleb Windsor (Melbourne) Over 11.5 Disposals (-357)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to locking in a player prop bet, Caleb Windsor is the man to watch. With his recent form heating up like a sizzling snag on the barbie, he's been carving up the field with an average of 14.6 disposals in his last five home games. Facing off against Carlton, a team he's historically dominated with an average of 19.7 disposals in their last five encounters, the stage is set for Windsor to shine. His current hit streak of three at home shows he's in the zone, making the Over 11.5 disposals seem like taking candy from a baby. With a disposal efficiency averaging 69.1% in his recent home games, expect Windsor to slice through the opposition and rack up the possessions like a seasoned pro at the MCG. Lock in the Over with confidence for Caleb Windsor to deliver the goods.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 4 of last 5(80%)

Season averages (2024)

Caleb Windsor averaged 14.5 disposals, 0.4 goals and 3.0 marks per game across 19 games in 2024.

14.5
Disposals
0.4
Goals
3.0
Marks
2.6
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Caleb Windsor has cleared 9.5 disposals in 80% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o9.580%
o10.580%
o12.570%
o13.570%
o15.540%
o16.510%
o18.50%
o19.50%
o21.50%
o22.50%
o24.50%
o25.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Caleb Windsor is averaging 13.8 disposals per game over his last 5.

13.8
Disp · Overall
0.8
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (27 Jul 24 vs GWS GIANTS), Caleb Windsor recorded 6 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
27 Jul 24GWS GIANTS6044
21 Jul 24Fremantle15152
13 Jul 24Essendon18111
7 Jul 24West Coast Eagles25175
28 Jun 24Brisbane Lions16012
22 Jun 24North Melbourne10006
10 Jun 24Collingwood21072
2 Jun 24Fremantle9022
26 May 24St Kilda8030
19 May 24West Coast Eagles13111
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
08 Aug 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 10.5 Over -769 ✓ HIT
08 Aug 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 11.5 Over -500 ✓ HIT
08 Aug 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 12.5 Over -333 ✓ HIT
08 Aug 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Melbourne Demons Disposals Pending
02 Aug 26 Melbourne Demons @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals Pending
02 Aug 26 Melbourne Demons @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Caleb Windsor (Melbourne) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Caleb Windsor is Over 11.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.5% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs Melbourne Demons on Saturday 29 August at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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