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AFL

Christian Salem

Melbourne

+11.9% Edge
Latest Pick
Disposals Under 23.5 -118 (1.85)
+11.9% Edge
Western Bulldogs @ Melbourne Demons
MCG, Melbourne
Sun 10 Aug, 5:15AM
Model Probability
66.0%
Implied Probability
54.1%
Model Edge
+11.9%
Predicted Value
21.4 Disposals

AI Analysis

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Christian Salem (Melbourne) Under 23.5 Disposals (-118)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Christian Salem is likely to fall under 23.5 disposals against the Western Bulldogs based on recent trends. Although he averages 23 disposals over his last five home games, his L5 vs opponent average drops to 14 disposals. With a model prediction of 21.4 disposals and a solid 76.8% disposal efficiency, Salem may struggle to reach the higher end of his recent performances. His turnover average of 1.6 and uncontested possessions average of 16.2 also suggest a more controlled game style. The data indicates a potential downturn in his output, making the under 23.5 disposals a favorable bet.

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Pick History & Track Record

Overall Hit Rate (50 picks) 94.0% (47/50)
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
10 Aug 25 Western Bulldogs @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 23.5 Under -118 ✗ MISS
15 Jun 25 Melbourne Demons @ Port Adelaide Power Disposals 14.5 Over -769 ✓ HIT
15 Jun 25 Melbourne Demons @ Port Adelaide Power Disposals 14.5 Over -769 ✓ HIT
15 Jun 25 Melbourne Demons @ Port Adelaide Power Disposals Pending
15 Jun 25 Melbourne Demons @ Port Adelaide Power Disposals Pending
15 Jun 25 Melbourne Demons @ Port Adelaide Power Disposals Pending

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