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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Kysaiah Pickett is Under 24.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 49 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 49%, implied 53%, edge +16.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 5, 5:56AM UTC
AFL

Kysaiah Pickett

Melbourne

+16.7% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Under 24.5 -115 (1.87) · $100→$187
+16.7% Edge
Carlton Blues @ Melbourne Demons
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 29 Aug, 9:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 20°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
70 in 100
Predicted
21.5 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 70.2% · the book's price implies 53.5% · gap +16.7%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals70.2%49.2%53.5%2.01+16.7%

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AI Analysis

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Kysaiah Pickett (Melbourne) Under 24.5 Disposals (-115)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking at Kysaiah Pickett's recent form, it's clear he's been a force to be reckoned with at the G. Over his last 5 home games, he's been a standout, racking up an average of 24 disposals. However, when we zero in on his clashes against Carlton, that number drops to just 18 disposals. His contested possessions sit at 9.6 on home turf, suggesting he thrives in the thick of it, but against the Blues, that figure dips to 11.2. With a model predicting Pickett to hit around 21.5 disposals and a 16.7% edge pointing towards the under, it's a smart move to back him to stay under the 24.5 disposal line this Saturday. Pickett may snag a goal or two, but his disposals might not stack up as high against the Blues.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 3 of last 5(60%)

Season averages (2024)

Kysaiah Pickett averaged 12.7 disposals, 1.7 goals and 2.7 marks per game across 21 games in 2024.

12.7
Disposals
1.7
Goals
2.7
Marks
3.6
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (23 Aug 24 vs Collingwood), Kysaiah Pickett recorded 15 disposals and 2 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
23 Aug 24Collingwood15223
17 Aug 24Gold Coast SUNS4001
10 Aug 24Port Adelaide21446
2 Aug 24Western Bulldogs8223
27 Jul 24GWS GIANTS8128
21 Jul 24Fremantle6015
13 Jul 24Essendon15213
7 Jul 24West Coast Eagles13242
28 Jun 24Brisbane Lions12546
22 Jun 24North Melbourne10132
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
29 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 24.5 Under -115 ✓ HIT
08 Aug 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Melbourne Demons Goals 0.5 Over -345 ✓ HIT
02 Aug 26 Melbourne Demons @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals 24.5 Under -116 ✓ HIT
22 Aug 26 Western Bulldogs @ Melbourne Demons Disposals Pending
24 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Melbourne Demons Disposals Pending
24 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Melbourne Demons Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Kysaiah Pickett (Melbourne) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Kysaiah Pickett is Under 24.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +16.7% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs Melbourne Demons on Saturday 29 August at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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