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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Kysaiah Pickett is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 78 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 78%, implied 78%, edge +0.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 13, 1:27AM UTC
AFL

Kysaiah Pickett

Melbourne

+0.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -345 (1.29) · $100→$129
+0.4% Edge
Fremantle Dockers @ Melbourne Demons
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 8 Aug, 3:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 20°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
78 in 100
Predicted
1.1 Goals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 77.9% · the book's price implies 77.5% · gap +0.4%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals77.9%77.5%1.28+0.4%

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AI Analysis

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Kysaiah Pickett (Melbourne) Over 0.5 Goals (-345)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Kysaiah Pickett has been a scoring machine, especially at home, where he's been a constant threat in front of the big sticks. Over his last five home games, Pickett has been averaging a solid 1.4 goals per game, showing his ability to find the back of the net consistently. With an impressive goal accuracy of 48.7% in those games and a recent hit streak of 2 goals, he's in form and hungry for more. Facing Fremantle, a team he's had success against in the past, averaging 1.8 goals in their last five encounters, Pickett seems primed to capitalize on this matchup. His overall hit rate of 3 goals in the last 3 games further solidifies his scoring prowess. With the odds in our favor and the stats backing him up, betting on Pickett to snag over 0.5 goals in this game feels like a smart play.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Kysaiah Pickett averaged 12.7 disposals, 1.7 goals and 2.7 marks per game across 21 games in 2024.

12.7
Disposals
1.7
Goals
2.7
Marks
3.6
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (23 Aug 24 vs Collingwood), Kysaiah Pickett recorded 15 disposals and 2 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
23 Aug 24Collingwood15223
17 Aug 24Gold Coast SUNS4001
10 Aug 24Port Adelaide21446
2 Aug 24Western Bulldogs8223
27 Jul 24GWS GIANTS8128
21 Jul 24Fremantle6015
13 Jul 24Essendon15213
7 Jul 24West Coast Eagles13242
28 Jun 24Brisbane Lions12546
22 Jun 24North Melbourne10132
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
08 Aug 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Melbourne Demons Goals 0.5 Over -345 ✓ HIT
02 Aug 26 Melbourne Demons @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals 24.5 Under -116 ✓ HIT
19 Apr 26 Brisbane Lions @ Melbourne Demons Goals 0.5 Over -435 ✓ HIT
24 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Melbourne Demons Disposals Pending
24 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Melbourne Demons Disposals Pending
24 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Melbourne Demons Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Kysaiah Pickett (Melbourne) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Kysaiah Pickett is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.4% on this pick. Their next game is Fremantle Dockers vs Melbourne Demons on Saturday 8 August at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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