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The latest Bet Better model pick for Kysaiah Pickett is Under 24.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 72%, versus the book's implied 54%, for a model edge of +18.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:06PM UTC
AFL

Kysaiah Pickett

Melbourne

+18.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Under 24.5 -118 (1.85)
+18.2% Edge
Melbourne Demons @ Hawthorn Hawks
UTAS Stadium, Launceston, TAS · Outdoor
Sat 4 Jul, 3:15AM
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Model Probability
72.2%
Implied Probability
54.1%
Model Edge
+18.2%
Predicted Value
21.6 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals72.2%54.1%1.38+18.2%

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AI Analysis

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Kysaiah Pickett (Melbourne) Under 24.5 Disposals (-118)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Kysaiah Pickett, the Demons dynamo, is set to showcase his skills against the Hawks away at UTAS Stadium. While Pickett’s recent stats paint a picture of a formidable contributor, with an average of 23.8 disposals over his last five away games, the under 24.5 line beckons. Despite his prowess, recent matchups hint at a potential dip in output against Hawthorn. In his last five games versus this opponent, Pickett has registered an average of just 13.2 disposals. This trend, coupled with the pressure of playing away and the Hawks' defensive strategy, could see Pickett fall short of the line. With a current hit rate of 14/20 in away games and a recent hit streak of 1, the under 24.5 disposals for Pickett presents an enticing opportunity to capitalize on his potential dip in production in this challenging matchup.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
11.2avg disposals recent
Season best21
Disposals last 10avg 11.2 · hi 21 · lo 4
1012131568821415

Kysaiah Pickett has a disposals high of 21 in AFL.

GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
1.9avg goals recent
Season best5
Goals last 10avg 1.9 · hi 5 · lo 0
1522012402

Kysaiah Pickett has a goals high of 5 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
04 Jul 26 Melbourne Demons @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals 24.5 Under -118 ✗ MISS
13 Jun 26 Essendon Bombers @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 24.5 Under -110 ✗ MISS
19 Apr 26 Brisbane Lions @ Melbourne Demons Goals 0.5 Over -435 ✓ HIT
05 Apr 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Melbourne Demons Goals Pending

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About This Player

Kysaiah Pickett (Melbourne) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Kysaiah Pickett is Under 24.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +18.2% on this pick. Their next game is Melbourne Demons vs Hawthorn Hawks on Saturday 4 July at UTAS Stadium, Launceston. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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