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The latest Bet Better model pick for Max Gawn is Under 23.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 71%, versus the book's implied 53%, for a model edge of +17.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 7, 5:01PM UTC
AFL

Max Gawn

Melbourne

+17.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Under 23.5 -115 (1.87)
+17.9% Edge
Geelong Cats @ Melbourne Demons
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Fri 24 Jul, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 20°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
71.4%
Implied Probability
53.5%
Model Edge
+17.9%
Predicted Value
20.7 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals71.4%53.5%1.40+17.9%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games4/10

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AI Analysis

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Max Gawn (Melbourne) Under 23.5 Disposals (-115)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking at Max Gawn's recent form, it's clear he's been a dominant force in the midfield for the Melbourne Demons. However, facing the Geelong Cats at the MCG, he might face a tougher challenge. Gawn's average disposals over his last five home games sits at 20.4, just below the line of 23.5. His recent performances against Geelong also suggest he might fall short, averaging 19.3 disposals in his last five matchups against them. Although his overall season average is strong at 22.8 disposals, the Cats have historically found ways to limit his impact. With an efficient defence and Gawn's focus on contested possessions, he may struggle to hit the over in this game. Betting on Gawn to go under 23.5 disposals could be a wise move given these insights.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
70%hit L10 O 21.5
21.2avg disposals L5
Home20vs Fremantle20.6Season best27
O 19.570%
O 20.570%
O 21.570%
O 22.540%
O 23.530%
O 24.520%
Game log vs line (O 21.5)avg 18.3 · hi 25 · lo 9
2325189111623221620

Max Gawn has gone over 21.5 disposals in 7 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 21.2 disposals, best 27).

GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
0.4avg goals L5
Home0.8vs Fremantle0.2Season best1
O 0.530%
O 1.520%
Game log vs line (O 0.5)avg 0.5 · hi 1 · lo 0
1010111000

Max Gawn has gone over 0.5 goals in 3 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 0.4 goals, best 1).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
24 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 23.5 Under -115 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Melbourne Demons @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals 17.5 Over -208 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Melbourne Demons @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals 16.5 Over -303 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Melbourne Demons @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals Pending
18 Jul 26 Melbourne Demons @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals Pending
04 Jul 26 Melbourne Demons @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Max Gawn (Melbourne) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Max Gawn is Under 23.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +17.9% on this pick. Their next game is Geelong Cats vs Melbourne Demons on Friday 24 July at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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