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AFL

Max Gawn

Melbourne

+19.3% Edge
Latest Pick
Disposals Under 22.5 -122 (1.82)
+19.3% Edge
Melbourne Demons @ Essendon Bombers
Adelaide Oval, Adelaide
Sat 11 Apr, 3:15AM
Model Probability
74.2%
Implied Probability
54.9%
Model Edge
+19.3%
Predicted Value
19.3 Disposals

AI Analysis

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Max Gawn (Melbourne) Under 22.5 Disposals (-122)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to Max Gawn hitting the Under 22.5 disposals mark against Essendon, the numbers paint a clear picture. Despite his solid season averages, his recent away games reveal a trend. With an average of 22.6 disposals away but facing Essendon, where he's averaged just 16 disposals, the odds are in our favor. His contested possessions and turnovers suggest he may face a tougher time against Essendon's defense. While Gawn's overall stats are strong, his recent form against this opponent and in away games indicate he might fall short of the 22.5 mark this time. With a model prediction of 19.3 and a 19.3% edge, the smart play is to back Gawn to go under in this matchup at Adelaide Oval.

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Pick History & Track Record

Overall Hit Rate (7 picks) 85.7% (6/7)
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
11 Apr 26 Melbourne Demons @ Essendon Bombers Disposals 22.5 Under -122 ✓ HIT
10 Aug 25 Western Bulldogs @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 19.5 Under -116 ✗ MISS
27 Jul 25 Melbourne Demons @ St Kilda Saints Goals 0.5 Over +190 ✓ HIT
19 Jul 25 Melbourne Demons @ Carlton Blues Disposals — — — Pending
13 Jul 25 North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Melbourne Demons Disposals — — — Pending
06 Jul 25 Melbourne Demons @ Adelaide Crows Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Max Gawn (Melbourne) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. Across 7 settled picks, the model has hit at a rate of 85.7% (6/7). The latest model pick for Max Gawn is Under 22.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +19.3% on this pick. Their next game is Melbourne Demons vs Essendon Bombers on Saturday 11 April at Adelaide Oval, Adelaide. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.