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The latest Bet Better model pick for Max Gawn is Over 15.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 85%, versus the book's implied 82%, for a model edge of +3.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 18, 6:35AM UTC
AFL

Max Gawn

Melbourne

+3.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 15.5 -455 (1.22)
+3.3% Edge
Melbourne Demons @ North Melbourne Kangaroos
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 18 Jul, 6:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Model Probability
85.3%
Implied Probability
82.0%
Model Edge
+3.3%
Predicted Value
20.7 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals85.3%—82.0%1.17+3.3%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games6/10

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AI Analysis

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Max Gawn (Melbourne) Over 15.5 Disposals (-455)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to dominating the ruck and controlling the midfield, there's no one quite like Max Gawn. The Melbourne Demons' giant has been a force to be reckoned with, especially when playing away. In his last 5 away games, Gawn has been a disposal machine, averaging a whopping 21.6 disposals. Facing the North Melbourne Kangaroos, who he has historically performed well against, only adds to his allure. Gawn's recent form is red-hot, boasting a stellar contested possession average of 11.6 and an impressive disposal efficiency of 63.3%. With his knack for intercepts (4.2 on average) and precise kicking (11 kicks per game), Gawn is set to not only meet but exceed the 15.5 disposal line. It's not just a bet; it's a smart investment in a player at the peak of his powers.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
22.6avg disposals L5
Away21.6vs North Melbourne15Season best27
O 20.560%
O 21.550%
O 22.520%
O 23.520%
O 24.510%
O 25.510%
Game log vs line (O 22.5)avg 18.3 · hi 25 · lo 9
2325189111623221620

Max Gawn has gone over 22.5 disposals in 2 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 22.6 disposals, best 27).

GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
50%hit L10 O 0.5
0.8avg goals L5
Away0.6vs North Melbourne0.4Season best1
O 0.550%
O 1.530%
Game log vs line (O 0.5)avg 0.5 · hi 1 · lo 0
1010111000

Max Gawn has gone over 0.5 goals in 5 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 0.8 goals, best 1).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
04 Jul 26 Melbourne Demons @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals 21.5 Under -114 ✗ MISS
13 Jun 26 Essendon Bombers @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 21.5 Under -118 ✗ MISS
11 Apr 26 Melbourne Demons @ Essendon Bombers Disposals 22.5 Under -122 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Max Gawn (Melbourne) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Max Gawn is Over 15.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.3% on this pick. Their next game is Melbourne Demons vs North Melbourne Kangaroos on Saturday 18 July at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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