Max Gawn (Melbourne) Under 19.5 Disposals (-116)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Max Gawn's recent home game stats show a solid average of 19.8 disposals, slightly above the model's predicted 17.5. However, facing the Western Bulldogs, who he historically averages 20.3 disposals against, Gawn might struggle to reach the bookmaker's line of 19.5. With a consistent contested possessions average of 13.8 at home and a recent hit rate of 4/4 games, Gawn's overall disposals average of 17.6 further supports the under bet. Additionally, his turnovers average of 2.6 could indicate potential disruptions in his game flow. Considering these factors, the model's 12.0% edge and Gawn's matchup history suggest a favorable opportunity to bet on him going under 19.5 disposals in this game.