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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Max Gawn is Under 23.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 71 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 71%, implied 53%, edge +17.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 27, 6:41PM UTC
AFL

Max Gawn

Melbourne

+17.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Under 23.5 -115 (1.87) · $100→$187
+17.9% Edge
Geelong Cats @ Melbourne Demons
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Fri 24 Jul, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 20°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
71 in 100
Predicted
20.7 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 71.4% · the book's price implies 53.5% · gap +17.9%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals71.4%53.5%1.40+17.9%

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AI Analysis

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Max Gawn (Melbourne) Under 23.5 Disposals (-115)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking at Max Gawn's recent form, it's clear he's been a dominant force in the midfield for the Melbourne Demons. However, facing the Geelong Cats at the MCG, he might face a tougher challenge. Gawn's average disposals over his last five home games sits at 20.4, just below the line of 23.5. His recent performances against Geelong also suggest he might fall short, averaging 19.3 disposals in his last five matchups against them. Although his overall season average is strong at 22.8 disposals, the Cats have historically found ways to limit his impact. With an efficient defence and Gawn's focus on contested possessions, he may struggle to hit the over in this game. Betting on Gawn to go under 23.5 disposals could be a wise move given these insights.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Season averages (2024)

Max Gawn averaged 19.1 disposals, 0.5 goals and 5.2 marks per game across 21 games in 2024.

19.1
Disposals
0.5
Goals
5.2
Marks
2.6
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Max Gawn has cleared 16.5 disposals in 90% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o16.590%
o17.580%
o19.570%
o21.570%
o23.550%
o24.540%
o26.520%
o28.50%
o30.50%
o31.50%
o33.50%
o35.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Max Gawn is averaging 22.6 disposals per game over his last 5.

22.6
Disp · Overall
0.0
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (23 Aug 24 vs Collingwood), Max Gawn recorded 20 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
23 Aug 24Collingwood20052
17 Aug 24Gold Coast SUNS16043
10 Aug 24Port Adelaide22052
2 Aug 24Western Bulldogs23192
27 Jul 24GWS GIANTS16130
7 Jul 24West Coast Eagles11141
28 Jun 24Brisbane Lions9022
22 Jun 24North Melbourne18131
10 Jun 24Collingwood25093
2 Jun 24Fremantle23144
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
24 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 23.5 Under -115 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Melbourne Demons @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals 17.5 Over -208 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Melbourne Demons @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals 16.5 Over -303 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Melbourne Demons @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals Pending
18 Jul 26 Melbourne Demons @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals Pending
04 Jul 26 Melbourne Demons @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Max Gawn (Melbourne) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Max Gawn is Under 23.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +17.9% on this pick. Their next game is Geelong Cats vs Melbourne Demons on Friday 24 July at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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