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The latest Bet Better model pick for Jake Melksham is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 63 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 63%, implied 75%, edge +0.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 30, 8:42PM UTC
AFL

Jake Melksham

Melbourne

+0.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -303 (1.33) · $100→$133
+0.1% Edge
Carlton Blues @ Melbourne Demons
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 29 Aug, 9:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 20°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
75 in 100
Predicted
1.4 Goals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 75.3% · the book's price implies 75.2% · gap +0.1%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals75.3%63.1%75.2%1.59+0.1%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games1/5
Last 10 games5/10

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AI Analysis

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Jake Melksham (Melbourne) Over 0.5 Goals (-303)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player to snag a goal, Jake Melksham is our man for the job this weekend at the hallowed MCG. In his last five home games, Melksham has been a scoring machine, netting an impressive average of 2.2 goals per game. He's been lethal inside 50, averaging 2.4 marks and 1.8 shots at goal in those matches. With a sharp 88.0% goal accuracy at home, he knows how to split the middle when it counts. Facing off against Carlton, a team he's averaged 4 goals per game against in his last five home matchups, Melksham is poised to deliver. Bet on Jake Melksham to go Over 0.5 goals and watch him light up the scoreboard for the Melbourne Demons.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 4 of last 4(100%)

Season averages (2024)

Jake Melksham averaged 8.6 disposals, 1.0 goals and 3.8 marks per game across 8 games in 2024.

8.6
Disposals
1.0
Goals
3.8
Marks
0.9
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Jake Melksham has cleared 9.5 disposals in 50% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o9.550%
o10.540%
o11.530%
o12.520%
o13.510%
o14.510%
o15.50%
o16.50%
o17.50%
o18.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Jake Melksham is averaging 7.2 disposals per game over his last 5 and 11.4 in home games.

7.2
Disp · Overall
11.4
Disp · Home
0.8
Goals · Overall
2.2
Goals · Home

Recent game log

In his most recent game (23 Aug 24 vs Collingwood), Jake Melksham recorded 13 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
23 Aug 24Collingwood13051
17 Aug 24Gold Coast SUNS10241
10 Aug 24Port Adelaide1000
2 Aug 24Western Bulldogs3011
27 Jul 24GWS GIANTS11131
21 Jul 24Fremantle10140
13 Jul 24Essendon12243
7 Jul 24West Coast Eagles9290
27 Aug 23Sydney Swans8232
20 Aug 23Hawthorn15363
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
24 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Melbourne Demons Goals 0.5 Over -313 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Melbourne Demons @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Goals 0.5 Over -476 ✓ HIT
04 Jul 26 Melbourne Demons @ Hawthorn Hawks Goals 0.5 Over -417 ✓ HIT
13 Jun 26 Essendon Bombers @ Melbourne Demons Goals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Jake Melksham (Melbourne) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jake Melksham is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.1% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs Melbourne Demons on Saturday 29 August at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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