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The latest Bet Better model pick for Toby Nankervis is Over 13.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 74%, versus the book's implied 74%, for a model edge of +0.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 1:04PM UTC
AFL

Toby Nankervis

Richmond

+0.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 13.5 -278 (1.36)
+0.5% Edge
Carlton Blues @ Richmond Tigers
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 4 Jul, 9:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Model Probability
74.1%
Implied Probability
73.5%
Model Edge
+0.5%
Predicted Value
16.7 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals74.1%—73.5%1.35+0.5%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games5/5
Last 10 games10/10

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AI Analysis

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Toby Nankervis (Richmond) Over 13.5 Disposals (-278)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright, footy fans, let's talk Toby Nankervis for this weekend's clash between the Richmond Tigers and Carlton Blues at the hallowed MCG. Nankervis, the Tiger's relentless ruckman, has been a midfield force lately, averaging 14.2 disposals over his last 5 home games. Facing Carlton, he's even more dominant with an average of 15.6 disposals in their last 5 matchups. Nankervis is riding a hot streak, hitting his disposal line in 3 straight home games and boasting an impressive 70.2% disposal efficiency overall. With his current form and matchup history, backing Nankervis to surpass 13.5 disposals against the Blues seems like a smart play. The stats don't lie, and Nankervis looks primed to snag plenty of possessions in this crucial game.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
14.2avg disposals L5
Home14.4vs Hawthorn14.6Season best26
O 12.580%
O 13.570%
O 14.540%
O 15.530%
O 16.530%
O 17.530%
Game log vs line (O 14.5)avg 16.9 · hi 26 · lo 11
13111726221316181815

Toby Nankervis has gone over 14.5 disposals in 4 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 14.2 disposals, best 26).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
04 Jul 26 Carlton Blues @ Richmond Tigers Disposals 13.5 Over -278 ✓ HIT
04 Jul 26 Carlton Blues @ Richmond Tigers Disposals 12.5 Over -400 ✓ HIT
14 Jun 26 Brisbane Lions @ Richmond Tigers Disposals 13.5 Over -278 ✓ HIT
14 Jun 26 Brisbane Lions @ Richmond Tigers Disposals — — — Pending
14 Jun 26 Brisbane Lions @ Richmond Tigers Disposals — — — Pending
14 Jun 26 Brisbane Lions @ Richmond Tigers Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Toby Nankervis (Richmond) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Toby Nankervis is Over 13.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.5% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs Richmond Tigers on Saturday 4 July at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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