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The latest Bet Better model pick for Toby Nankervis is Over 13.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 74%, versus the book's implied 74%, for a model edge of +0.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 12, 1:33AM UTC
AFL

Toby Nankervis

Richmond

+0.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 13.5 -278 (1.36) · $100→$136
+0.5% Edge
Carlton Blues @ Richmond Tigers
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 4 Jul, 9:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
74.1%
Implied Probability
73.5%
Model Edge
+0.5%
Predicted Value
16.7 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals74.1%—73.5%1.35+0.5%

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AI Analysis

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Toby Nankervis (Richmond) Over 13.5 Disposals (-278)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright, footy fans, let's talk Toby Nankervis for this weekend's clash between the Richmond Tigers and Carlton Blues at the hallowed MCG. Nankervis, the Tiger's relentless ruckman, has been a midfield force lately, averaging 14.2 disposals over his last 5 home games. Facing Carlton, he's even more dominant with an average of 15.6 disposals in their last 5 matchups. Nankervis is riding a hot streak, hitting his disposal line in 3 straight home games and boasting an impressive 70.2% disposal efficiency overall. With his current form and matchup history, backing Nankervis to surpass 13.5 disposals against the Blues seems like a smart play. The stats don't lie, and Nankervis looks primed to snag plenty of possessions in this crucial game.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Season averages (2024)

Toby Nankervis averaged 16.0 disposals, 0.1 goals and 3.3 marks per game across 21 games in 2024.

16.0
Disposals
0.1
Goals
3.3
Marks
5.3
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (24 Aug 24 vs Gold Coast SUNS), Toby Nankervis recorded 15 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
24 Aug 24Gold Coast SUNS15046
18 Aug 24Hawthorn18066
11 Aug 24St Kilda18052
3 Aug 24North Melbourne160311
20 Jul 24Port Adelaide13022
14 Jul 24GWS GIANTS22044
6 Jul 24Fremantle26147
30 Jun 24Carlton17123
15 Jun 24Hawthorn11045
6 Jun 24Adelaide Crows13047
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
04 Jul 26 Carlton Blues @ Richmond Tigers Disposals 13.5 Over -278 ✓ HIT
04 Jul 26 Carlton Blues @ Richmond Tigers Disposals 12.5 Over -400 ✓ HIT
14 Jun 26 Brisbane Lions @ Richmond Tigers Disposals 13.5 Over -278 ✓ HIT
14 Jun 26 Brisbane Lions @ Richmond Tigers Disposals — — — Pending
14 Jun 26 Brisbane Lions @ Richmond Tigers Disposals — — — Pending
14 Jun 26 Brisbane Lions @ Richmond Tigers Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Toby Nankervis (Richmond) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Toby Nankervis is Over 13.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.5% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs Richmond Tigers on Saturday 4 July at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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