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Model picks & player props
Greater Western Sydney Giants
VS
Carlton Blues

Greater Western Sydney Giants vs Carlton Blues Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 11:22AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

AFL
9
Game Picks
11
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Under 169.5 (Total Points)
For Greater Western Sydney Giants vs Carlton Blues (AFL), model win probability 95.2%, fair odds 1.05, book price -114, model edge +42.0%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro.
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Game picks

+EV edge in green
Total Points
Under
169.5
+ 8 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
UnderTotal PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Carlton BluesHead to HeadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Greater Western Sydney GiantsHead to HeadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Carlton BluesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Carlton BluesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Carlton BluesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Greater Western Sydney Giants

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Blues

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Greater Western Sydney Giants vs Carlton Blues: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Jesse Hogan GWS GIANTS Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Patrick Cripps Carlton Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Tom De Koning Carlton Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
George Hewett Carlton Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Toby Greene GWS GIANTS Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Greater Western Sydney Giants @ Carlton Blues — model preview

<p>Expert analysis and top betting picks for Carlton Blues vs Greater Western Sydney Giants. Includes analysis on key players like Aaron Cadman. Discover AFL predictions, AFL game picks, betting preview, Carlton Blues vs Greater Western Sydney Giants stats and odds.</p>

Aaron Cadman (GWS GIANTS) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-435)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Aaron Cadman is a strong bet to score anytime based on his recent performance. With an average of 1.2 goals in his last 5 away games and a 48.3% goal accuracy, Cadman is a reliable forward. He also averages 2.8 shots at goal and 1.8 marks inside 50 in away games, indicating his involvement in the scoring opportunities. The model's prediction of 1.5 goals aligns well with Cadman's recent form, showing a consistent scoring threat. The 7.8% edge further supports his likelihood of finding the back of the net against Carlton Blues, making this bet a favorable choice.

George Hewett (Carlton) Over 24.5 Disposals (-256)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

George Hewett is poised to excel in the Disposals market against Carlton. With an impressive L5 average of 28.2 disposals in away games and a stellar hit streak of 9/9, he consistently meets and surpasses the 24.5 line. Hewett's well-rounded stats, including 17 handballs and 11.2 kicks per game, showcase his involvement in play. His high disposalefficiency of 80.3% ensures he maximizes possessions. Additionally, Hewett's solid performance in contestedpossessions (14.6) and intercepts (3.4) indicates his ability to win crucial possessions. With a model prediction of 28 and a 3.7% edge, Hewett's form and consistency make the Over 24.5 disposals bet a strong choice for this matchup.

Harry Himmelberg (GWS GIANTS) Over 14.5 Disposals (-357)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Harry Himmelberg is poised to continue his strong form, averaging 18.8 disposals in his last five away games. With a consistent hit streak and high dispossession rate, he's a reliable choice to surpass the 14.5 disposal line against Carlton. Himmelberg's recent stats showcase his ability to impact the game with his 11.4 kicks, 7.4 handballs, and 4 contested possessions per away game, making the over 14.5 disposals a favorable bet. His 79.6% disposal efficiency further solidifies his potential to meet or exceed this mark, presenting a valuable opportunity for bettors to capitalize on his consistent performance.

Adam Saad (Carlton) Over 14.5 Disposals (-476)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Adam Saad is consistently hitting his disposal average, with recent strong performances on the road. His L5 away disposals average of 19.6 exceeds the line of 14.5 set by sportsbet. Saad's ability to gain meters, make interceptions, and maintain high disposalefficiency further supports this bet. With an expected 19.7 disposals (with a small edge) based on the model prediction, Saad's current form and hit rates make the Over a valuable pick for this matchup against Carlton Blues.

Tom Green (GWS GIANTS) Over 24.5 Disposals (-714)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Tom Green is a strong bet to go over 24.5 disposals against Carlton Blues based on his recent form. In his last 5 away games, Green has averaged 33.2 disposals, well above the line. His exceptional contested possessions (17.4) and uncontested possessions (15.8) support his ability to surpass the line. With a high disposalefficiency of 63.3% on the road, Green is efficient in possession. Additionally, his consistent performance is highlighted by a current hit streak of 15 away games and 26 overall, showing reliability. Considering his average of 31.8 disposals overall, Green is likely to continue his impressive form and exceed 24.5 disposals in this matchup.

Charlie Curnow (Carlton) Over 1.5 Goals (-303)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Charlie Curnow has been in exceptional form, averaging 2.6 goals in his last five away games with a 66.8% goal accuracy. He has a strong track record of involvement in scoring plays, averaging 5.8 score involvements and 4 shots at goal per game. With a current hit streak of 4 goals in away games and 6 overall, Curnow is a reliable goal scorer. The model's prediction of 2.1 goals for Curnow indicates a high probability of him surpassing the 1.5 goal line set by the bookmaker. Considering his recent performance and consistent goal-scoring trend, betting on Charlie Curnow to score over 1.5 goals in this matchup is a sound decision.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Greater Western Sydney Giants vs Carlton Blues in the AFL. The model has generated 9 game picks and 11 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.

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