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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Tom De Koning is Under 17.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 71 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 71%, implied 56%, edge +14.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 7:55AM UTC
AFL

Tom De Koning

St Kilda

+14.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Under 17.5 -130 (1.77) · $100→$177
+14.4% Edge
St Kilda Saints @ Greater Western Sydney Giants
ENGIE Stadium, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Sat 21 Mar, 5:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 17°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
71 in 100
Predicted
14.7 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 70.9% · the book's price implies 56.5% · gap +14.4%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals70.9%56.5%1.41+14.4%

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AI Analysis

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Tom De Koning (St Kilda) Under 17.5 Disposals (-130)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking at Tom De Koning's recent form and matchup against GWS, betting Under 17.5 disposals seems like a smart play. Over his last five away games, he's averaged 16.2 disposals, just under the line. Plus, in the same period, he's only managed an average of 13.8 disposals against GWS specifically. His recent contested possessions average of 7 also falls below the threshold. With De Koning's hit rate trending downwards and his disposals likely to be limited by GWS's pressure, the Under looks like a solid bet here. Trust the numbers and expect De Koning to struggle to hit the 17.5 mark in this clash at ENGIE Stadium.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Tom De Koning averaged 16.2 disposals, 0.5 goals and 3.3 marks per game across 18 games in 2024.

16.2
Disposals
0.5
Goals
3.3
Marks
3.4
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (7 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Tom De Koning recorded 11 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
7 Sep 24Brisbane Lions11042
21 Jul 24North Melbourne15002
13 Jul 24Western Bulldogs19054
6 Jul 24GWS GIANTS24025
21 Jun 24Geelong Cats25146
9 Jun 24Essendon24050
30 May 24Port Adelaide18146
25 May 24Gold Coast SUNS25053
17 May 24Sydney Swans6010
9 May 24Melbourne11133
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Tom De Koning (St Kilda) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Tom De Koning is Under 17.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +14.4% on this pick. Their next game is St Kilda Saints vs Greater Western Sydney Giants on Saturday 21 March at ENGIE Stadium, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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