Tom De Koning (Carlton) Under 17.5 Disposals (-128)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Looking at the numbers, it's clear that Tom De Koning has been a force to be reckoned with lately. However, as the Collingwood Magpies hit the road to face the St Kilda Saints at the legendary MCG, De Koning might face a tougher challenge than anticipated.
While his recent form has been solid, averaging 17.4 disposals over the last five away games, the model's prediction of 14.7 suggests a potential dip in his output. Additionally, his historical performance against St Kilda and overall trends hint at a possible underperformance compared to his average.
With an implied probability of 56.2% for De Koning to go under 17.5 disposals, there's value in backing the under. Keep an eye on his contested possessions and turnovers; they could be the key indicators of whether De Koning will fall short in this matchup.