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The latest Bet Better model pick for Tom De Koning is Under 17.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 71%, versus the book's implied 56%, for a model edge of +14.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 11:14PM UTC
AFL

Tom De Koning

St Kilda

+14.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Under 17.5 -130 (1.77) · $100→$177
+14.4% Edge
St Kilda Saints @ Greater Western Sydney Giants
ENGIE Stadium, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Sat 21 Mar, 5:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 17°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
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Model Probability
70.9%
Implied Probability
56.5%
Model Edge
+14.4%
Predicted Value
14.7 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals70.9%56.5%1.41+14.4%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games1/5
Last 10 games1/10

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AI Analysis

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Tom De Koning (St Kilda) Under 17.5 Disposals (-130)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking at Tom De Koning's recent form and matchup against GWS, betting Under 17.5 disposals seems like a smart play. Over his last five away games, he's averaged 16.2 disposals, just under the line. Plus, in the same period, he's only managed an average of 13.8 disposals against GWS specifically. His recent contested possessions average of 7 also falls below the threshold. With De Koning's hit rate trending downwards and his disposals likely to be limited by GWS's pressure, the Under looks like a solid bet here. Trust the numbers and expect De Koning to struggle to hit the 17.5 mark in this clash at ENGIE Stadium.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
50%hit L10 O 14.5
14.6avg disposals L5
Home13.2vs Carlton11Season best25
O 12.560%
O 13.550%
O 14.550%
O 15.520%
O 16.510%
O 17.510%
Game log vs line (O 14.5)avg 17.8 · hi 25 · lo 6
1162518242524191511

Tom De Koning has gone over 14.5 disposals in 5 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 14.6 disposals, best 25).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Tom De Koning (St Kilda) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Tom De Koning is Under 17.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +14.4% on this pick. Their next game is St Kilda Saints vs Greater Western Sydney Giants on Saturday 21 March at ENGIE Stadium, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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