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The latest Bet Better model pick for Toby Greene is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 94%, versus the book's implied 86%, for a model edge of +7.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 2:22PM UTC
AFL

Toby Greene

GWS GIANTS

+7.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -625 (1.16) · $100→$116
+7.3% Edge
Gold Coast Suns @ Greater Western Sydney Giants
Corroboree Group Oval Manuka, Canberra, ACT · Outdoor
Sun 9 Aug, 3:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 17°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
93.5%
Implied Probability
86.2%
Model Edge
+7.3%
Predicted Value
1.7 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals93.5%—86.2%1.07+7.3%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games3/5
Last 10 games5/10

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AI Analysis

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Toby Greene (GWS GIANTS) Over 0.5 Goals (-625)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player to snag a goal in the upcoming clash between the Greater Western Sydney Giants and the Gold Coast Suns, Toby Greene stands out as a prime candidate. Greene has been on a scoring tear lately, averaging a stellar 2.8 goals per game in his last five home matches. With a solid goal accuracy of 55.2%, he's been a sharpshooter inside 50, averaging 1.2 marks in that zone. His involvement in scores has been impressive too, averaging 8.6 score involvements. Considering his recent form and the fact that he's facing the Suns, against whom he averages 2.5 goals per game at home, the data points to Greene hitting the back of the net at least once. Bet on Greene to make an impact and split the middle for the Giants.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
50%hit L10 O 20.5
20.8avg disposals L5
Home22.6vs Gold Coast SUNS16.6Season best24
O 18.550%
O 19.550%
O 20.550%
O 21.540%
O 22.530%
O 23.530%
Game log vs line (O 20.5)avg 12.8 · hi 17 · lo 4
1217141617413111212

Toby Greene has gone over 20.5 disposals in 5 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 20.8 disposals, best 24).

GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
80%hit L10 O 1.5
2avg goals L5
Home2.8vs Gold Coast SUNS2.4Season best4
O 0.580%
O 1.580%
O 2.550%
O 3.510%
O 4.510%
Game log vs line (O 1.5)avg 2.2 · hi 4 · lo 0
2423312203

Toby Greene has gone over 1.5 goals in 8 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 2 goals, best 4).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
09 Aug 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Goals 0.5 Over -625 ✓ HIT
14 Jun 26 Greater Western Sydney Giants @ St Kilda Saints Goals 0.5 Over -500 ✓ HIT
14 Jun 26 Greater Western Sydney Giants @ St Kilda Saints Disposals 15.5 Over -182 ✓ HIT
14 Jun 26 Greater Western Sydney Giants @ St Kilda Saints Disposals — — — Pending
14 Jun 26 Greater Western Sydney Giants @ St Kilda Saints Disposals — — — Pending
14 Jun 26 Greater Western Sydney Giants @ St Kilda Saints Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Toby Greene (GWS GIANTS) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Toby Greene is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +7.3% on this pick. Their next game is Gold Coast Suns vs Greater Western Sydney Giants on Sunday 9 August at Corroboree Group Oval Manuka, Canberra. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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