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The latest Bet Better model pick for Toby Greene is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 86%, versus the book's implied 85%, for a model edge of +0.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:14AM UTC
AFL

Toby Greene

GWS GIANTS

+0.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -588 (1.17)
+0.2% Edge
Greater Western Sydney Giants @ St Kilda Saints
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 14 Jun, 5:15AM
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Model Probability
85.7%
Implied Probability
85.5%
Model Edge
+0.2%
Predicted Value
1.3 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals85.7%—85.5%1.17+0.2%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games5/10

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AI Analysis

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Toby Greene (GWS GIANTS) Over 0.5 Goals (-588)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player to snag a goal, Toby Greene is a prime candidate for a standout performance against St Kilda. Despite playing away, Greene's recent form screams potential. In his last five away games, he's been hitting the scoreboard consistently, averaging a goal per game. Plus, his goal accuracy sits at a respectable 28.7%, indicating he's making the most of his opportunities. With an average of 3.4 shots at goal in away games, Greene is a constant threat in the forward line. Add in his solid involvement in setting up scoring plays (6.2 score involvements per game), and you have a player who is not just a finisher but a creator as well. Facing a St Kilda side where he averages 3 goals in the last five matchups, Greene is poised to make an impact and easily surpass the Over 0.5 goal line.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
24avg disposals L5
Away17.8vs Essendon14.6Season best24
O 21.540%
O 22.530%
O 23.530%
O 24.520%
O 25.520%
O 26.510%
Game log vs line (O 23.5)avg 12.8 · hi 17 · lo 4
1217141617413111212

Toby Greene has gone over 23.5 disposals in 3 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 24 disposals, best 24).

GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
70%hit L10 O 1.5
2avg goals L5
Away1.6vs Essendon2.2Season best4
O 0.580%
O 1.570%
O 2.550%
O 3.510%
O 4.510%
Game log vs line (O 1.5)avg 2.2 · hi 4 · lo 0
2423312203

Toby Greene has gone over 1.5 goals in 7 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 2 goals, best 4).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
14 Jun 26 Greater Western Sydney Giants @ St Kilda Saints Goals 0.5 Over -588 ✓ HIT
14 Jun 26 Greater Western Sydney Giants @ St Kilda Saints Disposals 15.5 Over -182 ✓ HIT
14 Jun 26 Greater Western Sydney Giants @ St Kilda Saints Disposals 14.5 Over -270 ✓ HIT
14 Jun 26 Greater Western Sydney Giants @ St Kilda Saints Disposals — — — Pending
14 Jun 26 Greater Western Sydney Giants @ St Kilda Saints Disposals — — — Pending
14 Jun 26 Greater Western Sydney Giants @ St Kilda Saints Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Toby Greene (GWS GIANTS) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Toby Greene is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.2% on this pick. Their next game is Greater Western Sydney Giants vs St Kilda Saints on Sunday 14 June at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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