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The latest Bet Better model pick for Jesse Hogan is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 93%, versus the book's implied 85%, for a model edge of +7.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 1:03PM UTC
AFL

Jesse Hogan

GWS GIANTS

+7.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -588 (1.17)
+7.4% Edge
Greater Western Sydney Giants @ St Kilda Saints
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 14 Jun, 5:15AM
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Model Probability
92.9%
Implied Probability
85.5%
Model Edge
+7.4%
Predicted Value
1.7 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals92.9%—85.5%1.08+7.4%

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AI Analysis

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Jesse Hogan (GWS GIANTS) Over 0.5 Goals (-588)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Jesse Hogan is poised to light up Marvel Stadium when the Greater Western Sydney Giants take on St Kilda. Over his last five away games, Hogan has been a scoring machine, averaging 1.4 goals per match. His recent form against this opponent is even more impressive, averaging 2 goals per game. With a current hit streak of 3 and a solid 39.7% goal accuracy, Hogan consistently finds the big sticks. Add in his knack for being involved in scores (5.8 per game) and getting shots on goal (3.4 per game), and it's clear why the Over on Hogan snagging at least one goal is a smart bet. The numbers don't lie – Hogan is a genuine scoring threat who could easily split the middle multiple times in this matchup.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
4.1avg goals recent
Season best6
Goals last 10avg 4.1 · hi 6 · lo 2
5444536235

Jesse Hogan has a goals high of 6 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
14 Jun 26 Greater Western Sydney Giants @ St Kilda Saints Goals 0.5 Over -588 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Jesse Hogan (GWS GIANTS) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jesse Hogan is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +7.4% on this pick. Their next game is Greater Western Sydney Giants vs St Kilda Saints on Sunday 14 June at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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