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AFL

Jesse Hogan

GWS GIANTS

+3.6% Edge
Latest Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -833 (1.12)
+3.6% Edge
Greater Western Sydney Giants @ St Kilda Saints
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne
Sun 14 Jun, 5:15AM
Model Probability
92.9%
Implied Probability
89.3%
Model Edge
+3.6%
Predicted Value
1.7 Goals

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Jesse Hogan (GWS GIANTS) Over 0.5 Goals (-833)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright footy punters, let's talk Jesse Hogan. This sharpshooter from Greater Western Sydney is on fire lately, bagging an average of 1.4 goals in his last five away games. Facing St Kilda, where he's historically averaged 2 goals in the same period, Hogan is primed to split the middle at Marvel Stadium. What makes this bet even juicier is Hogan's recent form. With a solid 1-behind average and a respectable 22.1% goal accuracy in away games, he's a threat every time he lines up. Add in his consistent shot opportunities (3 shots on average) and significant impact in the forward line (5.8 score involvements per game), and you've got a recipe for goals. With a current hit streak and the odds in our favor, backing Hogan to snag at least one major in this clash is a smart play. Expect him to deliver and help you snag a win in the 'Player Goals Over/Under' market.

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Pick History & Track Record

Overall Hit Rate (9 picks) 77.8% (7/9)
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
06 Sep 25 Hawthorn Hawks @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Goals 1.5 Over -175 ✓ HIT
31 Jul 25 Greater Western Sydney Giants @ Western Bulldogs Goals 1.5 Over -244 ✓ HIT
25 Jul 25 Sydney Swans @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Goals 1.5 Over -227 ✓ HIT
12 Jul 25 Geelong Cats @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Goals — — — Pending
04 Jul 25 Greater Western Sydney Giants @ West Coast Eagles Goals — — — Pending
22 Jun 25 Gold Coast Suns @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Goals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Jesse Hogan (GWS GIANTS) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. Across 9 settled picks, the model has hit at a rate of 77.8% (7/9). The latest model pick for Jesse Hogan is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.6% on this pick. Their next game is Greater Western Sydney Giants vs St Kilda Saints on Sunday 14 June at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.