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The latest Bet Better model pick for Jesse Hogan is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 93 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 93%, implied 85%, edge +7.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 30, 10:56PM UTC
AFL

Jesse Hogan

GWS GIANTS

+7.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -588 (1.17) · $100→$117
+7.4% Edge
Greater Western Sydney Giants @ St Kilda Saints
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 14 Jun, 5:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 17°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
93 in 100
Predicted
1.7 Goals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 92.9% · the book's price implies 85.5% · gap +7.4%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals92.9%—85.5%1.08+7.4%

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AI Analysis

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Jesse Hogan (GWS GIANTS) Over 0.5 Goals (-588)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Jesse Hogan is poised to light up Marvel Stadium when the Greater Western Sydney Giants take on St Kilda. Over his last five away games, Hogan has been a scoring machine, averaging 1.4 goals per match. His recent form against this opponent is even more impressive, averaging 2 goals per game. With a current hit streak of 3 and a solid 39.7% goal accuracy, Hogan consistently finds the big sticks. Add in his knack for being involved in scores (5.8 per game) and getting shots on goal (3.4 per game), and it's clear why the Over on Hogan snagging at least one goal is a smart bet. The numbers don't lie – Hogan is a genuine scoring threat who could easily split the middle multiple times in this matchup.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Jesse Hogan averaged 12.2 disposals, 3.1 goals and 6.5 marks per game across 25 games in 2024.

12.2
Disposals
3.1
Goals
6.5
Marks
1.4
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (14 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Jesse Hogan recorded 13 disposals and 5 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
14 Sep 24Brisbane Lions13583
7 Sep 24Sydney Swans12380
25 Aug 24Western Bulldogs12262
17 Aug 24Fremantle15691
10 Aug 24Brisbane Lions16361
4 Aug 24Hawthorn175111
27 Jul 24Melbourne11460
20 Jul 24Gold Coast SUNS10463
14 Jul 24Richmond10440
6 Jul 24Carlton15595
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
14 Jun 26 Greater Western Sydney Giants @ St Kilda Saints Goals 0.5 Over -588 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Jesse Hogan (GWS GIANTS) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jesse Hogan is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +7.4% on this pick. Their next game is Greater Western Sydney Giants vs St Kilda Saints on Sunday 14 June at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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