Today's Serie A Best Bets: Picks, Predictions and Odds for ALL Games on Wednesday 09/09

Genoa finds itself in a troubling position, having failed to secure a win in their last five home matches, mustering a paltry average of just 0.4 goals per game. Their defense has been equally porous, conceding an average of 2 goals in that span. In stark contrast, Frosinone has shown resilience on the road, winning three of their last five outings and scoring an average of 1.4 goals. Their attacking prowess is evident with 14.4 shots per match, which is considerably higher than Genoa's home output. Additionally, Frosinone has a decent historical record against Genoa, and with their current form, they seem poised to capitalize on Genoa's struggles. Betting on Frosinone to take the handicap here feels like a smart move. They simply have the momentum, while Genoa is searching for answers. It's a classic case of form favoring the visitors.

Sevilla vs Valencia: Over 7.5 Total Corners (-179)

As Sevilla prepares to host Valencia, the stage is set for a high-tempo clash that could easily exceed the 7.5 corners mark. Sevilla's recent home games have seen an average of 17.4 shots, with a solid 5.2 on target, hinting at their attacking intent. This pressure often translates into corners, and with their average of 3.4 corners at home, you can expect plenty of action near the goalposts. Valencia, while struggling recently, are no strangers to corner count; they average around 1.4 corners away and have been known to launch counter-attacks that result in corner opportunities. Given both teams' recent form—a mixed bag of results and a tendency to push for offense—this match promises to be competitive. With the stakes high and the corners likely piling up, betting on over 7.5 corners feels like a wise move.

CF Montreal vs Charlotte FC: Charlotte FC Draw No Bet (+116)

As CF Montreal gears up to face Charlotte FC, the recent form paints a compelling picture for the visitors. Montreal has struggled at home, managing just one win in their last five matches and averaging a meager 1.2 goals per game. In stark contrast, Charlotte arrives with a solid away record, winning three of their last five and averaging a robust 2.2 goals per game. Montreal’s defensive woes are evident, conceding an alarming 2.6 goals per match recently, while Charlotte has tightened their game, allowing only 1 goal per match on the road. With a strong historical edge—Charlotte has not lost to Montreal in their last five meetings—backing Charlotte FC in the Draw No Bet market looks enticing. Their momentum and offensive prowess could just tip the scales in their favor, making this an opportunity not to be missed.

Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano: Under 4.5 Total Goals (-208)

As Real Madrid gears up to face Rayo Vallecano, the stage is set for a match that could lean towards a tighter scoreline than one might expect. Despite their impressive home form, averaging a solid 3.2 goals per game at the Bernabéu, Madrid's recent outings suggest a growing emphasis on defensive solidity. They’ve conceded merely 0.8 goals at home lately, which points to a sturdy backline. Rayo, on the other hand, has struggled against Los Blancos, scoring only twice in their last five encounters. With their away scoring average sitting at a modest 1.6, it’s clear they won't be racking up the goals. The expected goals (xG) data also reveals a trend toward fewer high-scoring affairs. Given these factors, betting on under 4.5 total goals seems a wise choice; it reflects both teams' current trajectories and the tactical nuances at play.

Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano: Rayo Vallecano +3.5 Goal Handicap (-303)

As Real Madrid prepares to host Rayo Vallecano, the dynamics suggest that backing Rayo on a +3.5 handicap could be a savvy move. Despite Madrid's formidable home record, their last five matches against Rayo show a 2-3-0 record, indicating that these encounters can be tighter than expected. Rayo’s recent form—two wins, a draw, and two losses—while not stellar, hints at resilience. Moreover, they’ve managed to score an average of 1.6 goals away from home, which could trouble a Madrid side that has conceded an average of 1.8 goals over their last five matches. With Madrid scoring a whopping 3.2 goals at home in recent outings, Rayo's defense must rise to the occasion, but the cushion of 3.5 goals makes this bet compelling. In a derby atmosphere, anything can happen, making Rayo’s chances of staying within a three-goal margin quite plausible.

That is the model's read on today's Serie A card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.