Today's NFL Best Bets for ALL Games on Monday 09/22

The over 44.5 bet in the 'totals' market for this game is supported by several key statistics. Firstly, the average points scored in the last five games for both teams collectively surpasses the over point at 37.8, revealing a trend of high-scoring games. Furthermore, the home team has a strong offensive record, with an overall score of 19.4 in their last five games. The away team also has a decent offensive record, with an overall score of 18.4 in their last five games. In terms of their defensive play, the home team has allowed an average of 25.4 points in their last five games, while the away team has allowed an average of 27.8 points. These defensive statistics suggest a potential for a high-scoring game. In addition, the home team's explosive rate against (0.201) and the away team's explosive rate against (0.244) shows both teams have been susceptible to

New England Patriots vs Pittsburgh Steelers : Over 44.5 Total Points (-115)

The 'Over 44.5' bet on the 'totals' market appears promising due to the combined scoring averages of both teams over their last five games. The home team averaged 19.4 points while the away team averaged 18.4 points, summing to 37.8 points, which is under the total line of 44.5. However, both teams have been allowing over 25 points per game on average, suggesting a higher-scoring game is likely. Furthermore, the home and away teams' Expected Points Added (EPA) against stats are 6.79 and 10.52 respectively, indicating they often allow opponents to score. Both teams also have higher explosive rates against than for, hinting at a potential for high scoring plays. Despite their losing records over the last five games, both teams have shown potential for producing and allowing high-scoring games, which supports the bet on 'Over 44.5'.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans : NA -7.5 Point Spread (-104)

The statistical data provided indicates that the Jacksonville Jaguars have a slight edge in this upcoming match, which justifies the spread bet in their favor. The Jaguars' home overall L5 performance shows a positive score-to-against ratio (22 to 19.8), positive point differential (2.2), and an EPA difference in their favor (3.44). This indicates that the Jaguars have been playing efficiently and scoring more points than their opponents during their recent home games. Furthermore, the Jaguars' pass EPA for is much higher than against, indicating their passing game has been efficient. Also, they have had fewer turnovers lately (1.2 against 1.4), suggesting better ball control. On the other hand, the away team's recent performance shows a smaller point differential (2.8) and a negative EPA difference when playing away (-0.03), indicating less efficient play. They also have a negative turnover differential (-0.4), suggesting they may be prone to losing possession.

New England Patriots vs Pittsburgh Steelers : NA -10.5 Point Spread (-108)

The rationale for betting on the Pittsburgh Steelers with a -10.5 spread can be justified by their superior performance metrics compared to their opponents. The Steelers have a positive model edge at 0.099, indicating they have a statistical advantage in the matchup. Furthermore, the Steelers appear to be stronger defensively, as the home team's recent games show a higher average of points scored against them (25.4 vs. 27.8 for the away team). The away team also displays a larger negative point differential, EPA differential, and higher yards allowed, indicating a weaker defense. Additionally, the home team has a more significant turnover differential, implying they may lose the ball more often, which the Steelers can capitalize on. Finally, the Steelers have a winning record against their opponents in their last five encounters (2-0), showing a history of success in this matchup.

Philadelphia Eagles vs Los Angeles Rams : NA -1.5 Point Spread (-110)

The bet on Philadelphia Eagles -1.5 in the 'spreads' market is statistically favorable due to the Eagles' remarkable recent performance and their historical dominance over the opponent. Over the last five games, the Eagles have outscored their opponents by an average of 12.6 points, which is significantly higher than the 1.5 point spread. The Eagles also have an impressive turnover differential of +2, indicating that their defense has been successful in forcing turnovers while their offense has limited mistakes. Moreover, the Eagles have an excellent record against this opponent, winning all three of their last encounters. Finally, the model indicates an edge of approximately 9.4% for this bet, further substantiating the confidence in the Eagles' ability to cover the spread. In conclusion, the Eagles' strong recent form, their historical dominance over the opponent and the model edge make this bet statistically appealing.