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Model picks & player props
Philadelphia Flyers
VS
Tampa Bay Lightning

Philadelphia Flyers vs Tampa Bay Lightning Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 10, 12:18PM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

NHL
Benchmark International Arena, Tampa Bay
Indoor
Tue 25 Nov 2025, 12:00AM
2
Game markets graded
1
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Philadelphia Flyers Moneyline +140

The model graded 3 markets for Philadelphia Flyers vs Tampa Bay Lightning (NHL) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $240 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Tue 25 Nov 2025, 12:00AM at Benchmark International Arena.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win61.6%
The price says41.7%
Best price+140
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Moneyline Philadelphia Flyers High62% chance +140
Total Goals High99% chance —
Saves × 1 prop Leanup to 58% —
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
Every NHL game on today's board →

Philadelphia Flyers and Tampa Bay Lightning last met on Tue 25 Nov 2025. What follows is the model's graded record from that game; a new preview appears here the moment the next one is priced. Today's board: every NHL game priced right now.

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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Moneyline
Philadelphia Flyers
+140
+ 1 more market
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All 2 game markets and 1 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 56,781+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Philadelphia FlyersMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal GoalsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Philadelphia Flyers

  • Noah Cates LWOut
  • Owen Tippett RWOut

Tampa Bay Lightning

  • Pontus Holmberg RWOut
Availability updated May 12, 4:16PM UTC — some NHL rows may be stale between updates. · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Philadelphia Flyers vs Tampa Bay Lightning: Weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture, and watch the availability of Noah Cates, Owen Tippett and Pontus Holmberg.
FactorThis fixture
Availability3 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Andrei Vasilevskiy Tampa Bay Lightning Saves

+ 1 player prop graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineModel leans Philadelphia FlyersNo line posted

Philadelphia Flyers @ Tampa Bay Lightning moneyline: model lean and both sides' win form.

Puck LinePhiladelphia Flyers +1.5No line posted

Philadelphia Flyers @ Tampa Bay Lightning puck-line (spread) model lean and cover form.

Total GoalsGame totalNo line posted

Philadelphia Flyers @ Tampa Bay Lightning total-goals model lean and scoring trends (the free board has not settled enough of these yet).

Philadelphia Flyers @ Tampa Bay Lightning — what the model found

Our model graded 3 betting markets for Philadelphia Flyers at Tampa Bay Lightning — 2 on the game itself and 1 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

2
Game markets graded
1
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 3 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 2 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Philadelphia Flyers vs Tampa Bay Lightning — recent results

Tampa Bay Lightning have won 2 of their last 5 games; Philadelphia Flyers have won 1 of their last 5.

Tampa Bay Lightning — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L1–2MTLHome
W1–0MTLAway
L2–3MTLHome
W3–2MTLAway
L2–3MTLAway
Philadelphia Flyers — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L2–3CARHome
L1–4CARHome
L2–3CARAway
L0–3CARAway
W1–0PITHome

Philadelphia Flyers vs Tampa Bay Lightning — recent meetings

These two have met 2 times recently: Tampa Bay Lightning won 2, Philadelphia Flyers won 0.

DateTampa Bay LightningPhiladelphia FlyersWinner
Jan 1351Tampa Bay Lightning
Jan 1172Tampa Bay Lightning

Who’s out or in doubt

3 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Tampa Bay Lightning
PlayerStatus
Pontus Holmberg RWOUT
Philadelphia Flyers
PlayerStatus
Noah Cates LWOUT
Owen Tippett RWOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Philadelphia Flyers @ Tampa Bay Lightning — model preview

Deep dive into Tampa Bay Lightning vs Philadelphia Flyers hockey action. Find value betting opportunities. Includes analysis on key players like Andrei Vasilevskiy. Check out NHL predictions, NHL game picks, hockey betting preview, Tampa Bay Lightning vs Philadelphia Flyers stats and odds.

Andrei Vasilevskiy (Tampa Bay Lightning) Over 22.5 Saves (-120)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Andrei Vasilevskiy for Over 22.5 in the 'Player Total Saves' market is driven by his recent consistent performance and the model's prediction. Vasilevskiy has been averaging 22.4 saves in his last 5 home games, just shy of the 22.5 line. However, looking at his overall last 5 games, his average saves marginally increase to 22.8. Additionally, he has a current hit streak of 2 games both in home games and overall, further highlighting his consistent performance. The model's prediction of 24.54, which is above the line set by the bookmaker, underscores the likelihood of Vasilevskiy achieving over 22.5 saves. The prediction also falls within one standard deviation (7.49), indicating a reasonable level of confidence in the outcome. All these factors combined make a strong case for betting on Vasilevskiy to make over 22.5

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Philadelphia Flyers vs Tampa Bay Lightning in the NHL. You may also see this matchup written as Flyers vs Lightning, or as Lightning vs Flyers. The most recent game between them was Tuesday 25 November 2025 at Benchmark International Arena. The model has generated 2 game picks and 1 player prop for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your NHL betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 2 meetings on record
Tampa Bay Lightning 2–0 across the last 2 meetings
DateGameScoreWinner
13 Jan 2026Tampa Bay Lightning @ Philadelphia Flyers1–5Tampa Bay Lightning
11 Jan 2026Tampa Bay Lightning @ Philadelphia Flyers2–7Tampa Bay Lightning
Today's selected board

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