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Model picks & player props
Tampa Bay Lightning
VS
New York Islanders

Tampa Bay Lightning vs New York Islanders Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 10, 7:20PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

NHL
UBS Arena, New York
Indoor
Sat 13 Dec 2025, 8:30PM
5
Game markets graded
1
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: Tampa Bay Lightning (Moneyline)
The model graded 6 markets for Tampa Bay Lightning vs New York Islanders (NHL) and this is the one it backs hardest — GOOD confidence. A $100 bet returns about $169 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 62.9%, fair odds 1.59, book price -145, model edge +3.7%. Tip-off Sat 13 Dec 2025, 8:30PM at UBS Arena.

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Moneyline
Tampa Bay Lightning
-145
+ 4 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Tampa Bay LightningMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York IslandersPuck LinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Tampa Bay Lightning

  • Pontus Holmberg RWOut

New York Islanders

  • Mathew Barzal COut
  • Semyon Varlamov GOut
  • Kyle Palmieri COut
  • Ryan Pulock DOut
  • Alexander Romanov DOut
Availability updated May 12, 8:04PM UTC — some NHL rows may be stale between updates. · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Tampa Bay Lightning vs New York Islanders: Weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture, and 6 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Availability6 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Ilya Sorokin New York Islanders Saves 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineModel leans New York IslandersNo line posted

Tampa Bay Lightning @ New York Islanders moneyline: model lean and both sides' win form.

Puck LineNew York Islanders +1.5No line posted

Tampa Bay Lightning @ New York Islanders puck-line (spread) model lean and cover form.

Total GoalsGame totalNo line posted

Tampa Bay Lightning @ New York Islanders total-goals model lean and scoring trends (the free board has not settled enough of these yet).

Tampa Bay Lightning @ New York Islanders — what the model found

Our model graded 6 betting markets for Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Islanders — 5 on the game itself and 1 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

5
Game markets graded
1
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 6 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 5 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Who’s out or in doubt

6 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

New York Islanders
PlayerStatus
Mathew Barzal COUT
Semyon Varlamov GOUT
Kyle Palmieri COUT
Ryan Pulock DOUT
Alexander Romanov DOUT
Tampa Bay Lightning
PlayerStatus
Pontus Holmberg RWOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Tampa Bay Lightning @ New York Islanders — model preview

Latest NHL betting preview: New York Islanders vs Tampa Bay Lightning. Get predictions and top picks. Includes analysis on key players like Ilya Sorokin. Keywords: NHL predictions, NHL game picks, hockey betting preview, New York Islanders vs Tampa Bay Lightning stats and odds.

Ilya Sorokin (New York Islanders) Over 23.5 Saves (-120)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Ilya Sorokin to make over 23.5 saves is backed by his consistent recent performance. His average number of saves in the last 5 home games is 24.8, already above the betting line. Furthermore, he is facing an average of 31 shots in his last 5 games overall, providing ample opportunities for him to make saves. Sorokin's current hit streak also supports the over bet, as he's consistently exceeded the 23.5 saves mark in 3 consecutive home games and 4 total recent games. Considering the model's prediction of 25.73 saves, which is within one standard deviation and comfortably above the bet line, it further strengthens the rationale for placing this bet. Sorokin's recent performances and the model's prediction point towards a high probability of him making over 23.5 saves in the upcoming game.

🔒 The other 1 write-up for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
—
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Tampa Bay Lightning vs New York Islanders in the NHL. You may also see this matchup written as Lightning vs Islanders, or as Islanders vs Lightning. The most recent game between them was Saturday 13 December 2025 at UBS Arena. The model has generated 5 game picks and 1 player prop for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your NHL betting strategy for this matchup.

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