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Model picks & player props
Tampa Bay Lightning
VS
New York Islanders

Tampa Bay Lightning vs New York Islanders Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 31, 4:04AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

NHL
UBS Arena, New York
Indoor
Sat 13 Dec 2025, 8:30PM
5
Game markets graded
1
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Tampa Bay Lightning Moneyline -145

The model graded 6 markets for Tampa Bay Lightning vs New York Islanders (NHL) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $169 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sat 13 Dec 2025, 8:30PM at UBS Arena.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win62.9%
The price says59.2%
Best price-145
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Moneyline Tampa Bay Lightning High63% chance -145
Spread High72% chance —
Saves × 1 prop Leanup to 59% —
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Moneyline
Tampa Bay Lightning
-145
+ 4 more markets
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All 5 game markets and 1 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 56,403+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Tampa Bay LightningMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York IslandersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Tampa Bay Lightning

  • Pontus Holmberg RWOut

New York Islanders

  • Mathew Barzal COut
  • Semyon Varlamov GOut
  • Kyle Palmieri COut
Availability updated May 12, 8:04PM UTC — some NHL rows may be stale between updates. · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Tampa Bay Lightning vs New York Islanders: Weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture, and 4 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Availability4 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Ilya Sorokin New York Islanders Saves

+ 1 player prop graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineModel leans New York IslandersNo line posted

Tampa Bay Lightning @ New York Islanders moneyline: model lean and both sides' win form.

Puck LineNew York Islanders +1.5No line posted

Tampa Bay Lightning @ New York Islanders puck-line (spread) model lean and cover form.

Total GoalsGame totalNo line posted

Tampa Bay Lightning @ New York Islanders total-goals model lean and scoring trends (the free board has not settled enough of these yet).

Tampa Bay Lightning @ New York Islanders — what the model found

Our model graded 6 betting markets for Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Islanders — 5 on the game itself and 1 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

5
Game markets graded
1
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 6 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 5 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Tampa Bay Lightning vs New York Islanders — recent results

New York Islanders have won 1 of their last 5 games; Tampa Bay Lightning have won 2 of their last 5.

New York Islanders — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L1–2CARHome
L1–4MTLHome
L0–3OTTHome
W5–3TORHome
L3–4CARAway
Tampa Bay Lightning — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L1–2MTLHome
W1–0MTLAway
L2–3MTLHome
W3–2MTLAway
L2–3MTLAway

Who’s out or in doubt

4 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

New York Islanders
PlayerStatus
Mathew Barzal COUT
Semyon Varlamov GOUT
Kyle Palmieri COUT
Tampa Bay Lightning
PlayerStatus
Pontus Holmberg RWOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Tampa Bay Lightning @ New York Islanders — model preview

Latest NHL betting preview: New York Islanders vs Tampa Bay Lightning. Get predictions and top picks. Includes analysis on key players like Ilya Sorokin. Keywords: NHL predictions, NHL game picks, hockey betting preview, New York Islanders vs Tampa Bay Lightning stats and odds.

Ilya Sorokin (New York Islanders) Over 23.5 Saves (-120)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Ilya Sorokin to make over 23.5 saves is backed by his consistent recent performance. His average number of saves in the last 5 home games is 24.8, already above the betting line. Furthermore, he is facing an average of 31 shots in his last 5 games overall, providing ample opportunities for him to make saves. Sorokin's current hit streak also supports the over bet, as he's consistently exceeded the 23.5 saves mark in 3 consecutive home games and 4 total recent games. Considering the model's prediction of 25.73 saves, which is within one standard deviation and comfortably above the bet line, it further strengthens the rationale for placing this bet. Sorokin's recent performances and the model's prediction point towards a high probability of him making over 23.5 saves in the upcoming game.

🔒 The other 1 write-up for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Tampa Bay Lightning vs New York Islanders in the NHL. You may also see this matchup written as Lightning vs Islanders, or as Islanders vs Lightning. The most recent game between them was Saturday 13 December 2025 at UBS Arena. The model has generated 5 game picks and 1 player prop for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your NHL betting strategy for this matchup.

Today's selected board

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