Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Model v4.0 Updated Daily

Today's Serie A Picks — Free Picks for Every Match

Free Serie A picks across match result, handicaps, Over/Under goals and player props. Every pick shows how likely it is, the best price on offer, and the reasoning behind it — in plain English.

7 matches coming up, and the first pick of every match is free

The one we'd back first · Como v Genoa
Como at Genoa: Genoa Spread 3.5 -5000
Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win95.8%
$50 returns$51.00
The rest of the boardfull reasoning on each game below
Como v GenoaCOM v GEN Como at Genoa: Genoa Spread 3.5 High96% chance -5000
Torino v FiorentinaTOR v FIO Torino at Fiorentina: Torino Draw No Bet draw_no_bet_Torino_NA Long-shot34% chance +250
Monza v ParmaMON v PAR Monza at Parma: Monza Draw No Bet draw_no_bet_Monza_NA Long-shot36% chance +235
Sassuolo v BolognaSAS v BOL Sassuolo at Bologna: Sassuolo Spread 3.5 High96% chance -5000
AC Milan v JuventusACM v JUV AC Milan at Juventus: AC Milan Spread 2.5 High93% chance -2000
Lecce v CagliariLEC v CAG Lecce at Cagliari: Cagliari Spread 2.5 High98% chance -5000
Lazio v UdineseLAZ v UDI Lazio at Udinese: Lazio Draw No Bet draw_no_bet_Lazio_NA Lean54% chance +104
Como v GenoaCOM v GEN High94% chance
Como v GenoaCOM v GEN Long-shot26% chance
Como v GenoaCOM v GEN High96% chance
Como v GenoaCOM v GEN Long-shot20% chance
Como v GenoaCOM v GEN Long-shot20% chance
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
48 more picks on the board
Unlock all picks
Serie ACOM vs. GEN 2026-09-04 18:45
Como Away
vs.
Home Genoa
Show Picks
Como at Genoa: Genoa Spread 3.5
Chance to win 95.8%
The price says 90.7%
Best price -5000

Genoa vs Como: Genoa +3.5 Goal Handicap (-5000)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Genoa's recent form might paint a bleak picture, but don’t let their home record fool you. They’ve faced tough opponents, and while they’ve struggled to score—averaging just 0.6 goals at home—their defense has been resilient, conceding only 1.8 goals per game. With Como visiting, who have shown vulnerabilities away from home, it’s a ripe moment for Genoa to bounce back. Como has been averaging 1.8 goals per game on the road but has also allowed 0.8, making it a chance for Genoa to exploit any defensive lapses. Considering both teams' xG metrics, Genoa is primed to break their scoring drought, especially against an opponent they’ve battled closely in the past. A handicap of 3.5 gives Genoa ample room to not just win, but potentially cover with a much-needed offensive breakthrough.

Genoa vs. Como — locked pick
Chance to win
The price says
Genoa vs. Como — locked pick
Chance to win
The price says
Genoa vs. Como — locked pick
Chance to win
The price says
Genoa vs. Como — locked pick
Chance to win
The price says
Genoa vs. Como — locked pick
Chance to win
The price says
Genoa vs. Como — locked pick
Chance to win
The price says
Genoa vs. Como — locked pick
Chance to win
The price says
Serie ATOR vs. FIO 2026-09-05 13:00
Torino Away
vs.
Home Fiorentina
Show Picks
Torino at Fiorentina: Torino Draw No Bet draw_no_bet_Torino_NA
Chance to win 34.1%
The price says 26.9%
Best price +250

Fiorentina vs Torino: Torino Draw No Bet (+250)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Fiorentina's struggles at home are hard to ignore, with just one win in their last five matches at the Stadio Artemio Franchi. Their scoring woes are quite alarming, averaging a mere 0.6 goals, and their recent encounters with Torino show a worrying trend, having lost four of the last five matchups. Torino, meanwhile, has been more resilient, managing to score 1.2 goals per game lately, even if their overall form has been shaky. Despite both sides having low expected goals (xG) figures recently—Torino averaging 0 in their last five—there's a glimmer of hope for the visitors. With Fiorentina's defensive lapses and Torino's potential for a much-needed away victory, backing Torino in the Draw No Bet market feels like a savvy play. It’s a chance to capitalize on the home team’s form while giving ourselves a safety net.

Fiorentina vs. Torino — locked pick
Chance to win
The price says
Fiorentina vs. Torino — locked pick
Chance to win
The price says
Fiorentina vs. Torino — locked pick
Chance to win
The price says
Fiorentina vs. Torino — locked pick
Chance to win
The price says
Fiorentina vs. Torino — locked pick
Chance to win
The price says
Fiorentina vs. Torino — locked pick
Chance to win
The price says
Serie AMON vs. PAR 2026-09-06 13:00
Monza Away
vs.
Home Parma
Show Picks
Monza at Parma: Monza Draw No Bet draw_no_bet_Monza_NA
Chance to win 35.8%
The price says 28.1%
Best price +235

Parma vs Monza: Monza Draw No Bet (+235)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As Parma prepares to host Monza, the recent trends tell a compelling story. Parma’s struggles at home are evident, with just one win in their last five matches and a paltry average of 0.6 goals scored. Their inability to convert chances is further underlined by an xG of zero over these games. On the flip side, Monza, despite a similarly rocky road, has shown flashes of resilience. They’ve managed to scrape together an average of 0.8 goals per game and may capitalize on Parma’s defensive vulnerabilities. Historically, these teams are evenly matched, but the edge tilts slightly toward Monza, especially given their away performance in the last few encounters. Betting on Monza in the Draw No Bet market feels wise; with Parma struggling to find their rhythm, Monza has a solid chance to snatch a crucial win or at least salvage a draw.

Parma vs. Monza — locked pick
Chance to win
The price says
Parma vs. Monza — locked pick
Chance to win
The price says
Parma vs. Monza — locked pick
Chance to win
The price says
Parma vs. Monza — locked pick
Chance to win
The price says
Parma vs. Monza — locked pick
Chance to win
The price says
Parma vs. Monza — locked pick
Chance to win
The price says
Parma vs. Monza — locked pick
Chance to win
The price says
Parma vs. Monza — locked pick
Chance to win
The price says
Serie ASAS vs. BOL 2026-09-06 16:00
Sassuolo Away
vs.
Home Bologna
Show Picks
Sassuolo at Bologna: Sassuolo Spread 3.5
Chance to win 96.1%
The price says 91.4%
Best price -5000

Bologna vs Sassuolo: Sassuolo +3.5 Goal Handicap (-5000)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As Bologna prepares to face Sassuolo, the recent form suggests a significant edge for the visitors. Bologna's home record over the last five matches shows a lack of consistency, managing just two wins and struggling to find the net, averaging only 1.4 goals per game. Meanwhile, Sassuolo’s away form has been challenging, but they possess a higher overall attacking potential. Though they’ve scored just 0.6 goals away, their xG numbers imply they’re creating chances. Bologna's defense has been shaky, allowing 1.4 goals on average at home. With Sassuolo's pressing style, they’re likely to exploit these frailties. Given the teams' head-to-head history, where Sassuolo has outperformed Bologna in recent encounters, backing Sassuolo at -3.5 on the handicap looks promising. They have the tools to capitalize on Bologna's vulnerabilities and potentially secure a decisive victory.

Bologna vs. Sassuolo — locked pick
Chance to win
The price says
Bologna vs. Sassuolo — locked pick
Chance to win
The price says
Bologna vs. Sassuolo — locked pick
Chance to win
The price says
Bologna vs. Sassuolo — locked pick
Chance to win
The price says
Bologna vs. Sassuolo — locked pick
Chance to win
The price says
Bologna vs. Sassuolo — locked pick
Chance to win
The price says
Serie AACM vs. JUV 2026-09-06 18:45
AC Milan Away
vs.
Home Juventus
Show Picks
AC Milan at Juventus: AC Milan Spread 2.5
Chance to win 92.5%
The price says 88.4%
Best price -2000

Juventus vs AC Milan: AC Milan +2.5 Goal Handicap (-2000)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As Juventus hosts AC Milan, the historical context and recent form tell a compelling story. Juventus has struggled, with a patchy home record of 2-2-1 in their last five, while Milan is riding a wave of confidence, particularly away from home. Their 3-0-2 record in recent outings suggests they know how to grind out results. Furthermore, Juventus' scoring average hovers around a mere 1 goal per match lately, while their defensive frailties see them conceding right at 1 per game. On the other hand, despite an inconsistent attack, Milan's ability to find the back of the net more frequently—averaging 1.4 goals in their last five—could exploit Juve's vulnerabilities. With Milan's recent head-to-head dominance (1-4-0 in the last five encounters), backing AC Milan on the handicap seems astute; they’re well-positioned to outperform expectations and claim at least a draw, if not more.

Juventus vs. AC Milan — locked pick
Chance to win
The price says
Juventus vs. AC Milan — locked pick
Chance to win
The price says
Juventus vs. AC Milan — locked pick
Chance to win
The price says
Juventus vs. AC Milan — locked pick
Chance to win
The price says
Juventus vs. AC Milan — locked pick
Chance to win
The price says
Juventus vs. AC Milan — locked pick
Chance to win
The price says
Juventus vs. AC Milan — locked pick
Chance to win
The price says
Juventus vs. AC Milan — locked pick
Chance to win
The price says
Juventus vs. AC Milan — locked pick
Chance to win
The price says
Serie ALEC vs. CAG 2026-09-07 16:00
Lecce Away
vs.
Home Cagliari
Show Picks
Lecce at Cagliari: Cagliari Spread 2.5
Chance to win 97.8%
The price says 92.6%
Best price -5000

Cagliari vs Lecce: Cagliari +2.5 Goal Handicap (-5000)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

When Cagliari takes the pitch against Lecce, the stats suggest a clear edge for the home side. Cagliari's recent form at home is impressive, boasting a 3-1-1 record in their last five, with a scoring average of 1.2 goals while limiting opponents to just 1.2. Their defense has been especially robust lately, allowing only 0.8 xG against. On the flip side, Lecce's away performances show a solid 4-0-1 run, yet they haven't faced a home side quite like Cagliari lately. The hosts are pressing for dominance and their attacking output, coupled with Lecce's occasional defensive lapses, suggests Cagliari can cover the 2.5 handicap. With both teams trading blows in past meetings, this game could very well tilt in favor of the home side, making a wager on Cagliari a compelling option.

Cagliari vs. Lecce — locked pick
Chance to win
The price says
Cagliari vs. Lecce — locked pick
Chance to win
The price says
Cagliari vs. Lecce — locked pick
Chance to win
The price says
Cagliari vs. Lecce — locked pick
Chance to win
The price says
Cagliari vs. Lecce — locked pick
Chance to win
The price says
Cagliari vs. Lecce — locked pick
Chance to win
The price says
Serie ALAZ vs. UDI 2026-09-07 18:45
Lazio Away
vs.
Home Udinese
Show Picks
Lazio at Udinese: Lazio Draw No Bet draw_no_bet_Lazio_NA
Chance to win 54.2%
The price says 46.3%
Best price +104

Udinese vs Lazio: Lazio Draw No Bet (+104)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Lazio heads into this clash against Udinese with a blend of recent form and head-to-head confidence that makes them a compelling pick for the Draw No Bet market. Despite a mixed bag of results recently, Lazio’s away form stands out; they’ve managed a solid 2-1-2 record in their last five, scoring an average of 1.2 goals while conceding just 0.8. This contrasts sharply with Udinese's struggles at home, where they’ve averaged a mere 0.6 goals scored in their last five matches. Moreover, Lazio has historically had the upper hand against Udinese, winning two out of their last five encounters. With Udinese's lack of firepower evident in their recent xG figures, it’s hard to see them holding off a determined Lazio side. The odds make this bet even more appealing, giving us a cushion should things not go to plan.

Udinese vs. Lazio — locked pick
Chance to win
The price says
Udinese vs. Lazio — locked pick
Chance to win
The price says
Udinese vs. Lazio — locked pick
Chance to win
The price says
Udinese vs. Lazio — locked pick
Chance to win
The price says
Udinese vs. Lazio — locked pick
Chance to win
The price says
Udinese vs. Lazio — locked pick
Chance to win
The price says

Bet Better Pro

You're seeing a sample. Pro unlocks every high-edge pick.

Free shows you the model at work. Pro hands you the full board — every positive-edge selection, props and multis unlocked, across 10+ leagues.

  • Every high-value pick unlocked — no gating
  • Top picks with full smart-betting angles
  • AI-powered player props & multis
  • High-value team prop opportunities
  • Proprietary models across 10+ leagues
  • Join a network of sharp bettors
Unlock all picks
Quick answer

What are Serie A picks?

Serie A picks are model-generated predictions for Serie A betting markets including 1X2 (moneyline), Asian Handicap, Over/Under goals and player props. Bet Better produces picks by running Monte Carlo simulations and machine learning models to estimate true outcome probabilities, compare them to bookmaker odds, and surface positive-edge selections with readable reasoning attached to every pick.

What you get on this page

Every upcoming Serie A match with predictions across all major markets. Expand any match to see picks ranked by edge, with probability, best odds, and the model's full reasoning. For player markets, jump to Props.

Probability Model

The model's estimated chance the outcome wins. A probability of 65% means the model thinks it wins 65 times in 100 equivalent scenarios.

Edge Value

The gap between model probability and the bookmaker's implied probability from odds. Positive edge means the model estimates the true chance is higher than what's being priced.

Best Odds Market

The top available decimal odds at the time of calculation. Odds move — always verify at your sportsbook before placing a bet.

Serie A pick types — what's on this page?

Market reference
Market What it means Best used for
1X2 (Moneyline) Home win, draw, or away win in 90 minutes. A simple match-result angle without handicaps.
Asian Handicap A spread applied to level the matchup, often with push protection. Backing the stronger team at a fairer price, or an underdog with a head start.
Over/Under Goals Total match goals over or under a line (e.g. 2.5). Style, tempo, and defensive strength matter more than the winner.
Player Props Individual stats — shots, goals, assists. Exploit matchup edges, role changes or recent form streaks.

How to read Serie A picks in 4 steps

  1. Find a match. Matches are listed in chronological order. Tap "Show Picks" to expand markets and reasoning for that fixture.
  2. Check model probability. This is the model's estimated chance the outcome wins. Compare it against the implied probability from odds to judge value yourself.
  3. Read the edge. Positive edge means the model estimates a higher probability than the bookmaker is pricing. The higher the edge, the more the selection deviates in your favour from market consensus.
  4. Verify best odds. Odds displayed are a snapshot — always confirm at your sportsbook before placing. Line shopping across books on a positive-edge pick compounds your long-run return significantly.
Note: This page shows all model-generated Serie A picks — the strongest plays are sorted to the top of each game. All betting involves risk — always bet within your limits.
Data first

Model probability, edge, and best odds are shown for every pick — so you judge each selection on numbers rather than feel.

Monte Carlo models

20,000+ simulations per match estimate true outcome probabilities across every major Serie A market, updated as odds move daily.

Responsible betting

Picks are informational only. Betting involves risk and variance. Use stake limits and only wager what you can afford to lose.

Serie A Picks FAQ

Quick answers
What are Serie A picks?

Serie A picks are model-generated predictions for Serie A betting markets including 1X2 (moneyline), Asian Handicap, Over/Under goals and player props. Bet Better produces picks by running Monte Carlo simulations and machine learning models to estimate true outcome probabilities, compare them to bookmaker odds, and surface positive-edge selections with readable reasoning attached to every pick.

What is the difference between Serie A picks and Serie A best bets?

Serie A Picks shows the full set of model-generated predictions across every market for all upcoming matches. Serie A Best Bets is a curated shortlist — the subset of picks the model rates as highest confidence and strongest edge for that day. If you want everything, use Picks. If you want the model's top selections only, use Picks.

What types of Serie A picks are available?

The model generates picks across the core match markets: 1X2 (match result), Asian Handicap, Over/Under goals, and player props (individual stats such as shots and goals). Game markets and player markets are displayed together within each match, ranked by model edge so the strongest values surface first.

How often are Serie A picks updated?

Picks are updated daily and re-run whenever bookmaker odds move significantly. As kick-off approaches, market liquidity increases and line movement can shift the edge calculation on a pick. Between rounds or when no upcoming matches qualify, the page displays a notification and picks return automatically once new market data is available.

What does edge mean on this page?

Edge is the difference between the model's estimated probability and the implied probability calculated from the bookmaker's posted odds. A pick with a model probability of 65% against odds implying 55% has a +10% edge — meaning the model estimates the true likelihood is 10 percentage points higher than the market is pricing. Consistently finding positive-edge selections is the foundation of long-run profitable betting strategy.

Can I use Serie A picks as legs in multi bets?

Yes — individual picks can be combined as legs in a multi or same game multi. However, risk compounds with every leg added, so starting with 2–3 high-edge selections is more efficient than building large multis around marginal edges. For structured multi recommendations with combined probability and edge shown, use the Serie A Parlays page.

Does Bet Better guarantee Serie A picks will win?

No. Serie A picks are statistical predictions intended to help inform betting decisions — no outcome is ever guaranteed. All betting involves variance and risk; even high-edge selections lose a proportion of the time. If gambling is affecting your health or finances, contact the National Gambling Helpline on 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.

Bet Better is not a bookmaker and does not accept wagers. Information is for educational purposes only. Gamble responsibly — only bet what you can afford to lose. 18+. National Gambling Helpline 1800 858 858. If betting stops being fun, take a break — see our responsible gambling resources.

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.