Jake Mangum (NA) Under 1.5 Hits (-227)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Pittsburgh Pirates host the Arizona Diamondbacks, keep an eye on Jake Mangum’s hitting. While he’s had flashes of brilliance this season, recent trends tell a different story. Mangum has struggled against right-handed pitching, and the Diamondbacks' starter has been particularly effective on the mound lately. Over his last few games, Mangum has failed to find his rhythm, averaging less than one hit per game against solid pitching. The Pirates’ lineup is also encountering a bit of a slump, which makes it tough for any individual hitter to shine. With the under set at 1.5 hits, it seems a reasonable expectation that Mangum might fall short tonight. Considering the implied probability of 69.4% backing this bet, you can feel confident that the odds favor a quiet night for Mangum at the plate. Trust the stats, and let’s roll with the under here.

Nick Gonzales (NA) Under 1.5 Hits (-238)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Pirates host the Diamondbacks, all eyes will be on Nick Gonzales, but I see him stumbling in this matchup. Gonzales has been inconsistent at the plate lately, struggling to find gaps against right-handed pitching—a trait that could haunt him against Arizona’s ace. The Diamondbacks have been tough on hitters, allowing a measly .225 average to opposing second basemen this season, making it a daunting task for Gonzales to collect those hits. Moreover, the recent trends indicate that Gonzales hasn’t consistently exceeded this 1.5 hit threshold, particularly in pressure situations. With the Diamondbacks’ bullpen also tightening up late in games, I'm leaning towards the under here. Between the lack of supporting cast and the tough matchup, Gonzales will likely find it hard to break through against a solid Arizona pitching staff. Expect him to stay under that 1.5 mark tonight.

Gabriel Moreno (NA) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-192)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Pirates host the Diamondbacks on July 29, all eyes will be on Gabriel Moreno. While he’s shown flashes of brilliance this season, recent trends suggest he might struggle to clear the 1.5 total bases mark against Pittsburgh’s pitching staff. The Pirates’ rotation has been surprisingly effective, especially at home, boasting a strong ability to neutralize left-handed hitters like Moreno. With an impressive ground-ball rate and pitches that induce weaker contact, they’ve kept opponents in check, yielding fewer extra-base hits. Plus, Moreno's recent form has been a bit shaky, hitting just .222 over his last ten games with only a handful of multi-base efforts. Given that the model projects him at just 0.83 total bases, it paints a picture of him likely falling short on this occasion. With the odds favoring the under at 65.8%, taking the under on Moreno’s total bases feels like a savvy play in this matchup.

See All Our Picks

You're viewing a preview. Subscribe today to unlock the full article and gain access to all our expert insights and best bets - every single day.

Unlock all picks