North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Geelong Cats Same Game Multi Tips & Prediction

Simpkin is one of the easier overs to justify on the card this week. The model has him projecting 23.2 disposals against a line of just 15.5 — that's 7.7 touches of buffer, with an 8.5% edge baked in. At home over his last five games he's averaging 22 disposals, built on a clean blend of 11.8 kicks and 10.2 handballs with 72.6% efficiency, and he's cleared 15.5 in all three of those home appearances. Crucially, he's hit this line in five straight overall, and when Geelong have come to town his home disposal average lifts to 24.5 — his best split in the data. The 1.17 implies 85.5% probability, which our model comfortably supports given the consistency of his uncontested work (16 per game at home) and 347 metres gained. The line looks set for casual money; the underlying numbers suggest Simpkin genuinely earns it.

Bailey Smith (Geelong Cats) Over 22.5 Disposals (-714)

Bailey Smith is in the form of his life, and the 22.5 disposal line against North Melbourne looks well below his current ceiling. The model projects him for 30 disposals — a 7.5-touch buffer above the line — generating a 5.8% edge against the implied 87.7% probability baked into the $1.14 price. That's meaningful value on a market where the book is already pricing him heavily. The underlying numbers make the case hard to argue with. Smith is averaging 31.4 disposals in his last five away games, including 19.2 kicks and 644 metres gained, and has hit this line in 20 of his last 20 away outings — a perfect streak. Against North specifically, he's averaging 32.8 in away contests. With 11.2 contested possessions per game away, he's not just accumulating in easy ball — he's working for it. At $1.14 the margin is thin, but the consistency here is genuinely elite.