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The latest Bet Better model pick for Harry Sheezel is Under 32.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 69%, versus the book's implied 55%, for a model edge of +14.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 3:44PM UTC
AFL

Harry Sheezel

North Melbourne

+14.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Under 32.5 -120 (1.83) · $100→$183
+14.0% Edge
St Kilda Saints @ North Melbourne Kangaroos
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 26 Jul, 5:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 12°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
68.6%
Implied Probability
54.6%
Model Edge
+14.0%
Predicted Value
30.1 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals68.6%—54.6%1.46+14.0%

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AI Analysis

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Harry Sheezel (North Melbourne) Under 32.5 Disposals (-120)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Harry Sheezel, the Kangaroos' midfield maestro, has been a force to be reckoned with at Marvel Stadium. Despite averaging a robust 33.6 disposals over his last 5 home games, his upcoming clash against the Saints presents a different challenge. Sheezel's recent performances against St Kilda have seen him notch an average of 30 disposals, just under the 32.5 line. Additionally, his disposals efficiency has dipped slightly to 80.3%, hinting at potential pressure from the Saints' midfield. With a 14.0% edge in our favor and a solid hit rate, backing Sheezel to stay under 32.5 disposals seems like a prudent move for this intriguing matchup.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 3 of last 5(60%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
29.7avg disposals recent
Season best38
Disposals last 10avg 29.7 · hi 36 · lo 18
30182727352935362931

Harry Sheezel has a disposals high of 38 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
26 Jul 26 St Kilda Saints @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals 32.5 Under -120 ✓ HIT
13 Jun 26 West Coast Eagles @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals 25.5 Over -263 ✓ HIT
13 Jun 26 West Coast Eagles @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals 24.5 Over -357 ✓ HIT
13 Jun 26 West Coast Eagles @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals — — — Pending
13 Jun 26 West Coast Eagles @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Harry Sheezel (North Melbourne) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Harry Sheezel is Under 32.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +14.0% on this pick. Their next game is St Kilda Saints vs North Melbourne Kangaroos on Sunday 26 July at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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