Harry Sheezel (North Melbourne) Over 0.5 Goals (-105)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Sheezel's goal-scoring output at home makes this a reasonable play at near-even money. His L5 home games average sits at exactly 0.6 goals — matching the model's projection — while his overall L5 average climbs to 0.8, suggesting the home venue is the mild drag on an otherwise consistent scoring pattern. The model prices this at 55.7% implied probability against the book's 51.3%, giving us a 4.4% edge that justifies the bet at $1.95.
The supporting metrics add confidence. Sheezel is averaging 1.4 shots at goal per home game and generating 4.6 inside 50s, which means he's consistently getting into dangerous positions — his 36.7% goal accuracy at home is the limiting factor, but with enough volume, the conversion comes. He's also hit this line in three of his last four games overall. Not a certainty by any stretch, but the edge is real and the price is fair.