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Model picks & player props
Houston Texans
VS
New England Patriots

Houston Texans vs New England Patriots Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 31, 9:26PM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

NFL
New England
Sun 18 Jan 2026, 8:00PM
20
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
New England Patriots -3.5 Spread +100

The model graded 20 markets for Houston Texans vs New England Patriots (NFL) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $200 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sun 18 Jan 2026, 8:00PM at New England.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win65.8%
The price says50.0%
Best price+100
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Spread New England Patriots -3.5 High66% chance +100
Spread High65% chance —
Moneyline High70% chance —
Total Points Lean58% chance —
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
Every NFL game on today's board →
This game is done — the model’s call CASHED
New England Patriots -3.5 · $100 returned $200

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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Spread
New England Patriots
-3
-105
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
New England PatriotsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New England PatriotsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New England PatriotsMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Houston Texans

  • M.J. Stewart SOut
  • E.J. Speed LBOut
  • Ali Gaye DEOut
  • Ja'Marcus Ingram CBOut
  • Tank Dell WROut
  • Jadeveon Clowney DEQuestionable
  • Braden Smith OTQuestionable
  • Dylan Horton DEOut
  • Marte Mapu LBOut
  • Wade Woodaz LBQuestionable
  • British Brooks RBQuestionable
  • K.C. Ossai LBOut
  • Jayden Higgins WROut
  • Jaylin Noel WRQuestionable
  • Graham Mertz QBOut

New England Patriots

  • Harold Landry III LBOut
  • Marcus Bryant OTOut
  • Brenden Schooler SOut
  • TreVeyon Henderson RBQuestionable
  • Bryce Baringer PQuestionable
  • Myles Montgomery RBOut
  • Ben Brown CQuestionable
Availability updated Aug 31, 6:30PM UTC — NFL availability is season-pending (off-season); treat as a placeholder until the season opens. · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Houston Texans vs New England Patriots: Outdoors with 5 mph wind, 53°F — stronger wind and cold both nudge totals and the kicking game down, and 22 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Roof / venueopen-air outdoor
Surfaceartificial turf
Wind5 mph
Temperature53°F
Availability22 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: sustained wind above ~15 mph and hard cold both drag NFL totals and kicking numbers down, while a key skill-position player being out shifts target and touch share to his backups.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineNew England Patriots to winNo line posted

New England Patriots vs Houston Texans moneyline — the live line, our model's read and how the free board has gone so far, tracked every game week on BetBetter.

Point SpreadNew England Patriots spreadNo line posted

New England Patriots vs Houston Texans spread — the live line, our model's read and how the free board has gone so far, tracked every game week on BetBetter.

Total PointsTexans @ PatriotsNo line posted
5-5Free board · overs and unders
Last 105-5Home5-4
Free board · recent overs and unders5-5

New England Patriots game total — on our free board this call has landed 5 of 10 times, updated every game week on BetBetter.

Houston Texans @ New England Patriots — what the model found

Our model graded 20 betting markets for Houston Texans at New England Patriots — 20 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 20 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 19 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Houston Texans vs New England Patriots — recent results

New England Patriots have won 2 of their last 5 games; Houston Texans have won 1 of their last 5.

New England Patriots — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L13–37CLEAway
W24–21PHIHome
D13–13INDHome
L13–29SEAHome
W10–7DENAway
Houston Texans — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L13–16CARAway
L20–22LVHome
L7–27LACHome
L16–28NEAway
W30–6PITAway

Houston Texans vs New England Patriots — recent meetings

These two have met 1 time recently: New England Patriots won 1, Houston Texans won 0.

DateNew England PatriotsHouston TexansWinner
Jan 182816New England Patriots

Who’s out or in doubt

22 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

New England Patriots
PlayerStatus
Harold Landry III LBOUT
Marcus Bryant OTOUT
Brenden Schooler SOUT
TreVeyon Henderson RBQUESTIONABLE
Bryce Baringer PQUESTIONABLE
Myles Montgomery RBOUT
Ben Brown CQUESTIONABLE
Houston Texans
PlayerStatus
M.J. Stewart SOUT
E.J. Speed LBOUT
Ali Gaye DEOUT
Ja'Marcus Ingram CBOUT
Tank Dell WROUT
Jadeveon Clowney DEQUESTIONABLE
Braden Smith OTQUESTIONABLE
Dylan Horton DEOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
7
Total Picks
—
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
18 Jan 26 Moneyline New England Patriots ✓ HIT
18 Jan 26 Spread New England Patriots -3 ✓ HIT
18 Jan 26 Total Points Over 40.5 ✓ HIT
18 Jan 26 Total Points Under 40.5 ✗ MISS
18 Jan 26 Total Points Over 41.5 ✓ HIT
18 Jan 26 Total Points Under 41.5 ✗ MISS
18 Jan 26 Spread New England Patriots -3.5 ✓ HIT

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Houston Texans vs New England Patriots in the NFL. You may also see this matchup written as Texans vs Patriots, or as Patriots vs Texans. The most recent game between them was Sunday 18 January 2026 at New England. The model has generated 20 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your NFL betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 10 meetings on record
New England Patriots 7–3 across the last 10 meetings · these games average 47.6 points (meetings on record since 2015)
DateGameScoreWinner
18 Jan 2026Houston Texans @ New England Patriots28–16New England Patriots
13 Oct 2024Houston Texans @ New England Patriots21–41Houston Texans
10 Oct 2021New England Patriots @ Houston Texans22–25New England Patriots
22 Nov 2020New England Patriots @ Houston Texans27–20Houston Texans
1 Dec 2019New England Patriots @ Houston Texans28–22Houston Texans
9 Sep 2018Houston Texans @ New England Patriots27–20New England Patriots
24 Sep 2017Houston Texans @ New England Patriots36–33New England Patriots
14 Jan 2017Houston Texans @ New England Patriots34–16New England Patriots
22 Sep 2016Houston Texans @ New England Patriots27–0New England Patriots
13 Dec 2015New England Patriots @ Houston Texans6–27New England Patriots
Today's selected board

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