This bet on Jamal Murray to get over 3.5 rebounds in the game against the Golden State Warriors is backed by solid statistical evidence. First, Murray's expected stat value for the game is 4.89, which is significantly higher than the bet's outcome point of 3.5. This suggests that he is likely to exceed the given threshold. Additionally, Murray's average rebound rate in the last 5 away games is 4.6, again higher than the outcome point. Moreover, his overall hit rate of over 3.5 rebounds in the last 11 games is impressive at 10/11, and his hit rate in the last 6 away games is 5/6. Even though his average rebounds against the Warriors is slightly lower, the overall trends suggest a strong likelihood of him achieving more than 3.5 rebounds.
Draymond Green (Golden State Warriors) Over 12.5 Points + Assists (-128)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Draymond Green's combination of scoring and playmaking makes the over 12.5 points + assists prop bet a strong choice. In his last five games, Green has averaged 10.6 points and 4.6 assists, totaling 15.2 points + assists per game, which is above the 12.5 bet threshold. When he plays at home, his average dips slightly but still remains above the prop line at 11.2 combined points and assists. Moreover, when facing the Nuggets, Green's performance has been consistently high, with 14.7 combined points and assists in the last five encounters. This trend is stable whether he's home or away. Lastly, Green's hit rates suggest a high probability of success, with 6 out of his last 7 games and 2 out of his last 3 home games exceeding the prop line. Therefore, the data suggest a good chance of this bet being successful.
Golden State Warriors vs Denver Nuggets : Denver Nuggets Under 128.5 Team Total Points (-588)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The bet on 'Denver Nuggets Under 128.5' is a solid choice given their recent scoring trends. In their last 5 games overall, the Nuggets have averaged 110.6 points, which is significantly below the 128.5-point benchmark. Looking specifically at their away games, their average drops even further to 108.6 points. Their overall record also shows a slight struggle recently, with an overall record of 2-3 and an away record of 1-4 in the last 5 games. Considering this performance data, it seems unlikely that they will score over 128.5 points against Golden State Warriors. The model prediction supports this, forecasting a score of 116.03 for the Nuggets. Therefore, betting on Denver Nuggets Under 128.5 points is a reasonable choice.
Brandin Podziemski (Golden State Warriors) Over 1.5 Threes Made (-161)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The bet on Brandin Podziemski for Over 1.5 in the Golden State Warriors vs Denver Nuggets game is supported by his strong home performance. On average, Podziemski has made 2 three-point field goals in his last five home games, which exceeds the bet's threshold of 1.5. Even when we consider his average performance against the Nuggets at home, it exactly meets the required rate. Further, his overall hit rate at home in the last 17 games, 11/17, indicates a strong likelihood of him making more than 1.5 threes. Although his average overall three-point field goals made in the last five games is slightly below the threshold, his favourable home and opponent-specific statistics lend substantial support to this bet.