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Model picks & player props
Arizona Diamondbacks
VS
St. Louis Cardinals

Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 10, 7:58AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Busch Stadium, St. Louis
Outdoor
Thu 23 Jul 2026, 9:15PM
20
Game markets graded
10
Props graded
100.0%
Historical Hit Rate
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Over 8 Total Runs -119

The model graded 30 markets for Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $184 if it lands. Picks on this matchup have hit 100.0% across 25 settled results. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Thu 23 Jul 2026, 9:15PM at Busch Stadium.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win64.9%
The price says54.3%
Best price-119
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Total Runs Over 8 High65% chance -119
Total Runs High69% chance
Total Runs Lean44% chance
Spread Lean52% chance
Spread Long-shot20% chance
Total Runs Long-shot36% chance
Total Runs Long-shot32% chance
Total Runs High61% chance
Spread High67% chance
Pitcher - Strikeouts × 1 prop Highup to 92%
Batter - Total Bases × 6 props Highup to 81%
Batter - Hits × 2 props Highup to 89%
Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs × 1 prop Highup to 79%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

Arizona Diamondbacks and St. Louis Cardinals last met on Thu 23 Jul 2026. What follows is the model's graded record from that game; a new preview appears here the moment the next one is priced. Today's board: every MLB game priced right now.

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This game is done — the model’s call CASHED
Over 8 · $100 returned $184

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 77 of 124 right (mlb pitcher strikeouts unders)
This bet type · last timeSep 8
Corbin Burnes Under 2.5
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $240
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Total Runs
Over
14.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Arizona DiamondbacksSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Arizona DiamondbacksSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Arizona DiamondbacksSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Arizona DiamondbacksSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Arizona DiamondbacksMoneyline - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Arizona DiamondbacksSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Arizona Diamondbacks

  • Corbin Carroll RFDay-to-day
  • Ryne Nelson SPOut
  • Ryan Thompson RPOut
  • A.J. Puk RPOut
  • Andrew Saalfrank RPOut
  • Cristian Mena RPOut

Probable pitcher

Zac Gallen SP

St. Louis Cardinals

  • Masyn Winn SSDay-to-day
  • Peter Strzelecki RPOut
  • JJ Wetherholt 2BOut
  • Hunter Dobbins SPOut
  • Blaze Jordan 3BOut
  • Everson Pereira RFOut
  • Max Rajcic RPOut

Probable pitcher

Andre Pallante SP
Availability updated Sep 9, 11:40PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 13 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability13 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Michael McGreevy Pitcher - Strikeouts
Ketel Marte ARI Batter - Total Bases
Jordan Walker STL Batter - Hits
Geraldo Perdomo Batter - Total Bases
Alec Burleson STL Batter - Hits

+ 10 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineSt. Louis CardinalsNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF2.2L5 RA2.4Home L53-2vs Arizona Diamondbacks L54-1

St. Louis Cardinals moneyline form: last five 3-2, 2.2 runs/gm.

Run LineSt. Louis Cardinals run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF2.2L5 RA2.4Home L53-2vs Arizona Diamondbacks L54-1

St. Louis Cardinals spread form: last five 3-2, 2.2 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona DiamondbacksNo line posted

St. Louis Cardinals total runs form: last five 3-2, 2.2 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsSt. Louis Cardinals team totalNo line posted
1.6runs we expect
L5 RF2.2L5 RA2.4Home L53-2vs Arizona Diamondbacks L54-1

St. Louis Cardinals team total runs form: last five 3-2, 2.2 runs/gm.

Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals — what the model found

Our model graded 30 betting markets for Arizona Diamondbacks at St. Louis Cardinals — 20 on the game itself and 10 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
10
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 30 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 29 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals — recent results

St. Louis Cardinals have won 1 of their last 5 games; Arizona Diamondbacks have won 3 of their last 5.

St. Louis Cardinals — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L1–2SFAway
L6–7SFAway
L4–5SFAway
L7–10COLAway
W10–8COLAway
Arizona Diamondbacks — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L2–5KCAway
W5–3KCAway
W5–4KCAway
W3–2HOUAway
L1–3HOUAway

Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games St. Louis Cardinals are scoring 2.4 runs per game (3-2) while Arizona Diamondbacks are at 6.0 (4-1); St. Louis Cardinals pitchers are allowing 2.0 earned runs per game versus 2.2 for Arizona Diamondbacks.

2.4
St. Louis Cardinals runs/G
6.0
Arizona Diamondbacks runs/G
Last 5 gamesSt. Louis CardinalsArizona Diamondbacks
Runs / game2.46.0
Hits / game4.25.2
Home runs / game0.41.0
Walks drawn / game1.02.0
Batter K / game1.22.6
Earned runs allowed / game2.02.2
Pitching K / game2.81.0
Walks allowed / game1.21.4
L5 record3-24-1

Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals — recent meetings

These two have met 7 times recently: St. Louis Cardinals won 2, Arizona Diamondbacks won 5.

DateSt. Louis CardinalsArizona DiamondbacksWinner
Jul 23610Arizona Diamondbacks
Jul 1978Arizona Diamondbacks
Jul 1854St. Louis Cardinals
Jul 1835Arizona Diamondbacks
Jun 2449Arizona Diamondbacks
Jun 2334Arizona Diamondbacks
Jun 2232St. Louis Cardinals

Who’s out or in doubt

13 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

St. Louis Cardinals
PlayerStatus
Masyn Winn SSDAY-TO-DAY
Peter Strzelecki RPOUT
JJ Wetherholt 2BOUT
Hunter Dobbins SPOUT
Blaze Jordan 3BOUT
Everson Pereira RFOUT
Max Rajcic RPOUT
Arizona Diamondbacks
PlayerStatus
Corbin Carroll RFDAY-TO-DAY
Ryne Nelson SPOUT
Ryan Thompson RPOUT
A.J. Puk RPOUT
Andrew Saalfrank RPOUT
Cristian Mena RPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals — model preview

Expert analysis and top MLB betting picks for St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks. Includes analysis on key players like Max Kepler. Discover MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks stats and odds.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks : Over 7.5 Total Runs (-143)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the St. Louis Cardinals take on the Arizona Diamondbacks on July 23, 2026, expect a lively showdown where runs should flow like a summer breeze. The Cardinals' offense has been firing on all cylinders lately, averaging over five runs per game in their last ten outings. With key hitters like Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado heating up, they’re more than capable of exploiting any pitching missteps. On the other side, the Diamondbacks have shown their own offensive prowess, particularly against right-handed pitchers. With a lineup that can both manufacture and power through runs, they’ve been finding ways to score consistently. Both teams bring a blend of power and on-base ability, so when you combine their recent trends with their mutual history of high-scoring battles, banking on the over 7.5 seems not just reasonable but quite enticing. With model predictions hinting at close to ten runs, it’s a game where we should see fireworks.

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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
Recent form: won 5 of last 5 settled picks for this matchup.
25
Total Picks
100.0%
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
23 Jul 26 Spread Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5 ✓ HIT
23 Jul 26 Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings Arizona Diamondbacks ✓ HIT
23 Jul 26 Total Runs Over 5.5 ✓ HIT
23 Jul 26 Total Runs Over 6.5 ✓ HIT
23 Jul 26 Total Runs Over 12.5 ✓ HIT
23 Jul 26 Total Runs Over 7 ✓ HIT
23 Jul 26 Spread Arizona Diamondbacks +1 ✓ HIT
23 Jul 26 Total Runs Over 8.5 ✓ HIT
23 Jul 26 Total Runs Over 12 ✓ HIT
23 Jul 26 Total Runs Over 11.5 ✓ HIT
23 Jul 26 Spread Arizona Diamondbacks -1 ✓ HIT
23 Jul 26 Total Runs Over 10.5 ✓ HIT
23 Jul 26 Total Runs Over 7.5 ✓ HIT
23 Jul 26 Total Runs Over 8 ✓ HIT
23 Jul 26 Moneyline Arizona Diamondbacks ✓ HIT

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Diamondbacks vs Cardinals, or as Cardinals vs Diamondbacks. The most recent game between them was Thursday 23 July 2026 at Busch Stadium. The model has generated 20 game picks and 10 player props for this matchup. The model has recorded a hit rate of 100.0% on tracked picks between these two teams. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 25 meetings on record
Arizona Diamondbacks 13–12 across the last 25 meetings · these games average 10.6 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
23 Jul 2026Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals6–10Arizona Diamondbacks
19 Jul 2026St. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks8–7Arizona Diamondbacks
18 Jul 2026St. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks4–5St. Louis Cardinals
17 Jul 2026St. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks4–5St. Louis Cardinals
24 Jun 2026Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals4–9Arizona Diamondbacks
23 Jun 2026Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals3–4Arizona Diamondbacks
22 Jun 2026Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals3–2St. Louis Cardinals
20 Jul 2025St. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks5–3Arizona Diamondbacks
19 Jul 2025St. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks10–1Arizona Diamondbacks
18 Jul 2025St. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks7–3Arizona Diamondbacks

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 25 meetings on file.

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