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The latest Bet Better model pick for Ketel Marte is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases.
On the Batter - Total Bases market the model assigns a model win probability of 78%, versus the book's implied 60%, for a model edge of +18.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 23, 5:43PM UTC
MLB

Ketel Marte

ARI

+18.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Total Bases Under 1.5 -147 (1.68)
+18.3% Edge
Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals
Busch Stadium, St. Louis, Missouri · Outdoor
Thu 23 Jul, 9:15PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
77.8%
Implied Probability
59.5%
Model Edge
+18.3%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Total Bases77.8%—59.5%1.29+18.3%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games1/5
Last 10 games3/10

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AI Analysis

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Ketel Marte (ARI) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-147)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Cardinals host the Diamondbacks, all eyes will be on Ketel Marte, who’s had a rollercoaster season at the plate. Lately, he’s been struggling against right-handed pitchers, and with St. Louis’ ace on the mound, that trend could continue. The Cardinals' pitching staff has been stellar at home, boasting a 3.50 ERA and limiting opponents to a mere .230 batting average. Marte, who typically thrives in hitter-friendly scenarios, is likely to find the going tougher against this formidable arm. Moreover, recent matchups show Marte averaging just 0.9 total bases against similar pitching. With the odds reflecting a 59.5% implied probability that he’ll stay under 1.5 total bases, it’s a smart bet. Given the current form of both Marte and the Cardinals’ bullpen, backing the ‘Under’ seems like the way to go in this intriguing matchup.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

1 market live
Batter - Total BasesUpcoming vs STLU 1.5 -147+18.3% edge
Game log vs U 1.52 / 4 hit
3102

Ketel Marte MLB total bases vs STL. Current line U 1.5 at -147 (+18.3% model edge).

Batter - HitsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 1.530%
Game log vs O 1.5avg 1.3 · hi 2 · lo 0
2201

Ketel Marte MLB hitsseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - SinglesSeason & recent formNo line posted
50%hit L10
Game log vs O 0.5avg 1 · hi 2 · lo 0
102

Ketel Marte MLB singles: cleared over 0.5 in 50% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
18 Jul 26 St. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks Batter - Singles 1.5 Under -556 ✗ MISS
18 Jul 26 St. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks Batter - Total Bases 1.5 Under -278 ✓ HIT
12 Jul 26 Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers Batter - Total Bases 1.5 Under -145 ✓ HIT
10 Jul 26 Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres Batter - Walks — — — Pending
09 Jul 26 Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres Batter - Hits — — — Pending
09 Jul 26 Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres Batter - Total Bases — — — Pending

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About This Player

Ketel Marte (ARI) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Ketel Marte is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +18.3% on this pick. Their next game is Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals on Thursday 23 July at Busch Stadium, St. Louis. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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